气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析

利用全球耦合模式对比计划第五阶段(CMIP5)模拟试验的结果,并与观测资料对比分析,评估了CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟效果。结果表明:多数模式可以较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布以及季节变化特征。1979—2005年北极海冰迅速减少,所有模式均模拟出北极海冰减少的趋势,但减少趋势大小与观测差别较大。在全球变化的背景下,全球地表气温升高1℃,北极海冰的面积减少1.02×106km2,而在模式中减少的北极海冰面积在0.62×106—1.68×106km2之间,说明模式对于北极海冰的模拟仍然存在很多不确定性。     

太湖地区河网水体石油类浓度预测

利用完全混合系统水文动力学模型,对太湖地区河道改造后,由于船型及船流量发生变化而导致的水体石油类浓度的变化进行了预测。通过类比分析得出：预测结果基本符合实际。     

CICE5.0与BCC_CSM2.0模式的耦合及对北极海冰的模拟评估

本文将美国Los Alamos国家实验室发展的最新海冰模式CICE5.0引入国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM2.0,替代原有的海冰模式SIS,形成一个新的耦合模式。在此基础上,评估新耦合模式对1985-2009年北极海冰的模拟性能,检验引入CICE5.0后对耦合模式中北极海冰、海洋和大气模拟结果的改进。结果表明,引入CICE5.0后,模式能较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布、季节以及年际变化特征。相比于旧版本耦合模式,新耦合模式模拟的北极多年冰增多、一年冰减少,同时,海冰增厚、海冰流速减慢,模拟效果得到显著改进,对波弗特涡流模拟的改善尤为明显。进一步分析发现,相比于SIS,CICE5.0对北极海冰特别是海冰厚度模拟性能的提升,在耦合进入BCC_CSM2.0后,会触发冰-温的正反馈机制,改进了模式对海平面气压场、表层气温和海表温度的模拟,由此进一步提高了模式对北极海冰的模拟能力。     

Exponential leap-forward gradient scheme for determining the isothermal layer depth from profile data

Two distinct layers usually exist in the upper ocean. The first has a near-zero vertical gradient in temperature (or density) from the surface and is called the isothermal layer (or mixed layer). Beneath that is a layer with a strong vertical gradient in temperature (or density), called the thermocline (or pycnocline). The isothermal layer depth (ILD) or mixed layer depth (MLD) for the same profile varies depending on the method used to determine it. Also, whether they are subjective or objective, existing methods of determining the ILD do not estimate the thermocline (pycnocline) gradient. Here, we propose a new exponential leap-forward gradient (ELG) method of determining the ILD that retains the strengths of subjective (simplicity) and objective (gradient change) methods and avoids their weaknesses (subjective methods are threshold-sensitive and objective methods are computationally intensive). This new method involves two steps: (1) the estimation of the thermocline gradient G _th for an individual temperature profile, and (2) the computation of the vertical gradient by averaging over gradients using exponential leap-forward steps. Such averaging can filter out noise in the profile data. Five existing methods of determining the ILD (difference, gradient, maximum curvature, maximum angle, and optimal linear fitting methods) as well as the proposed ELG method were verified using global expendable bathythermograph (XBT) temperature and conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) datasets. Among all the methods considered, the ELG method yielded the highest skill score and the lowest Shannon information entropy (i.e., the lowest uncertainty).     

Remote sensing retrieval of surface suspended sediment concentration in the Yellow River Estuary

Accurate assessment of surface suspended sediment concentration(SSSC) in estuary is essential to address several important issues: erosion, water pollution, human health risks, etc. In this study, an empirical cubic retrieval model was developed for the retrieval of SSSC from Yellow River Estuary. Based on sediments and seawater collected from the Yellow River and southeastern Laizhou Bay, SSSC conditions were reproduced in the laboratory at increasing concentrations within a range common to field observations. Continuous spectrum measurements of the various SSSCs ranging from 1 to 5700 mg/l were carried out using an Ava Field-3 spectrometer. The results indicated the good correlation between water SSSC and spectral reflectance(Rrs) was obtained in the spectral range of 726–900 nm. At SSSC greater than 2700 mg/L, the 740–900 nm spectral range was less susceptible to the effects of spectral reflectance saturation and more suitable for retrieval of high sediment concentrations. The best correlations were obtained for the reflectance ratio of 820 nm to 490 nm. Informed by the correlation between Rrs and SSSC, a retrieval model was developed(R2 = 0.992). The novel cubic model, which used the ratio of a near-infrared(NIR) band(740–900 nm) to a visible band(400–600 nm) as factors, provided robust quantification of high SSSC water samples. Two high SSSC centers, with an order of 103 mg/l, were found in the inversion results around the abandoned Diaokou River mouth, the present Yellow River mouth to the abandoned Qingshuigou River mouth. There was little sediment exchange between the two high SSSC centers due to the directions of the residual currents and vertical mixing.     

Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China

In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. (2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10a, compared to 0.19°C/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.     

塔里木盆地西南地区早中寒武世岩相古地理

塔里木盆地西南地区早中寒武世岩相古地理存在一定争议,这制约了该区的勘探评价。综合利用露头、钻井和地震资料,开展沉积相、地震相分析,并结合区域构造背景,恢复了岩相古地理格局,提出了相应的沉积模式。中下寒武统发育陆棚相、开阔台地相、局限台地相、蒸发台地相和缓坡相。震旦纪末期麦盖提斜坡南部形成水下低隆起,向南在西南坳陷区残留部分被动陆缘,主要发育缓坡相、陆棚相;麦盖提斜坡区地势较高,地层较薄,主要发育局限台地和蒸发台地潮坪;巴楚隆起区水体局限,在干燥炎热气候下形成了厚度较大的蒸发台地膏盐湖沉积。巴楚隆起区和麦盖提斜坡区中下寒武统膏盐岩分布广泛,与下伏碳酸盐岩可构成良好的储盖组合,西南坳陷区残留部分被动陆缘,烃源岩发育条件较好,这表明塔西南具有较好的油气前景。     

Skarn-type tungsten mineralization associated with the Caledonian (Silurian) Niutangjie granite,northern Guangxi,China

The Niutangjie tungsten deposit is a bedded skarn-type scheelite deposit and is located at the junction between Ziyuan and Xingan counties in the north of Guangxi,China.The deposit is genetically related to a fine-grained two-mica granite within the orefield.Zircon LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of the granite yielded a Silurian(Caledonian)age of 421.8±2.4 Ma,which is contemporaneous with the adjacent Yuechengling batholith.Mineralization within the skarn is associated with a quartz,garnet,and diopside gangue,and scheelite is present in a number of different mineral assemblages,such as quartz-scheelite and quartz-sulfide-scheelite;these assemblages correspond to oxide and sulfide stages of mineralization.Sm-Nd isotope analysis of scheelite yielded an isochron age of 421±24 Ma.Although the uncertainty on this date is high,this age suggests that the scheelite mineralization formed during the Late Caledonian,at a similar time to the emplacement of the Niutangjie granite.Zircons within the granite have?Hf(t)values and Hf two-stage model ages of?6.5 to?11.6,and 1.79 to 2.11 Ga,respectively.These data suggest that the magma that formed the granite was derived from Mesoproterozoic crustal materials.Scheelite?Nd(t)values range from?13.06 to?13.26,also indicative of derivation from ancient crustal materials.Recent research has identified Caledonian magmatism in the western Nanling Range,indicating that this magmatism may be the source of contemporaneous tungsten mineralization.     

粤西-琼东北近海沉积物的运移和沉积

为了深入认识珠江现代入海物质在粤西陆架随海流迁移扩散的路径和沉积中心,利用Gao-Collins方法分析了粤西-琼东北近海1 515个站位的粒径趋势,并用²¹⁰Pb法测定了8支柱样的现代沉积速率。结果表明,在粤西沿岸流和南海暖流这两个相向海流的共同作用下,珠江口外珠江来源的泥质沉积物的主体被限制在-50 m等深线以浅的内陆架。现代珠江入海物质能维持粤西陆架泥质沉积区0.1 cm/a左右的现代沉积速率。在川山群岛至海陵岛一带和琼州海峡东侧泥质区,分别受岛屿阻挡和逆时针中尺度涡旋的影响,形成了现代沉积中心。在沉积物不同粒级的来源和搬运方式存在差异的地方,粒径趋势分析结果可能主要反映的是粗颗粒沉积物的运移趋势,而非细颗粒沉积物的运移方向。     

ENVISAT测高数据波形重跟踪分析研究

对卫星测高技术中的波形重跟踪技术及其算法进行了详细分析讨论．同时分析了波形重跟踪中最小二乘解初值及权的确定,根据ENVISAT的SGDR波形数据,利用波形重跟踪技术研究了开阔海域上的距离改正情况(一般距离改正为20～30cm)。结果表明,重跟踪改正后的精度,18Hz距离优于1Hz距离。