Effective sea ice area based on a thickness threshold

As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 10⁶ km² of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.

     

Characterisation of organic matter and microbial communities in contrasting arsenic-rich Holocene and arsenic-poor Pleistocene aquifers,Red River Delta,Vietnam

High concentrations of geogenic As in the groundwaters of south and SE Asia, which are used as drinking waters, are causing severe health impacts to the exposed human populations. It is widely accepted that As mobilisation from sediments into these shallow reducing groundwaters requires active metal-reducing microbes and electron donors such as organic matter (OM). Although OM in such Holocene aquifers has been characterised, there is a dearth of data on Pleistocene aquifers from the same areas. Reported here are preliminary studies of OM and microbial communities present in two aquifers, one of Pleistocene and one of Holocene age, with contrasting concentrations of As (viz. Pleistocene: low As <10 μg/L; Holocene: high As up to 600 μg/L) from Van Phuc village in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Results revealed OM inputs from multiple sources, including potential contributions from naturally occurring petroleum seeping into the shallow aquifer sediments from deeper thermally mature source rocks. Although concentrations vary, no noticeable systematic differences in biomarker distribution patterns within the OM were observed between the two sites. Microbial analyses did not show a presence of microbial communities previously associated with As mobilisation. All clone libraries were dominated by α-, β-, and γ-Proteobacteria not known to be able to reduce Fe(III) or sorbed As(V). Furthermore, representatives of the Fe(III)-reducing genus Geobacter could only be detected at very low abundance by PCR, using highly selective 16S rRNA gene primers, supporting the hypothesis that metal reduction is not a dominant in situ process in these sediments. No correlation between As concentration in groundwater and OM composition nor microbial community in the host sediments was found. This suggests that either (i) As is not being significantly mobilised in situ in these sediments, instead As appears to be mobilised elsewhere and transported by groundwater flow to the sites or (ii) sorption/desorption processes, as implicated by geochemical data from the cores, play a critical role in controlling As concentrations at these sites.     

Recent paleorecords document rising mercury contamination in Lake Tanganyika

Recent Lake Tanganyika Hg deposition records were derived using ¹⁴C and excess ²¹⁰Pb geochronometers in sediment cores collected from two contrasting depositional environments: the Kalya Platform, located mid-lake and more removed from watershed impacts, and the Nyasanga/Kahama River delta region, located close to the lake’s shoreline north of Kigoma. At the Kalya Platform area, pre-industrial Hg concentrations are 23 ± 0.2 ng/g, increasing to 74 ng/g in modern surface sediment, and the Hg accumulation rate has increased from 1.0 to 7.2 μg/m²/a from pre-industrial to present, which overall represents a 6-fold increase in Hg concentration and accumulation. At the Nyasanga/Kahama delta region, pre-industrial Hg concentrations are 20 ± 3 ng/g, increasing to 46 ng/g in surface sediment. Mercury accumulation rate has increased from 30 to 70 μg/m²/a at this site, representing a 2–3-fold increase in Hg concentration and accumulation. There is a lack of correlation between charcoal abundance and Hg accumulation rate in the sediment cores, demonstrating that local biomass burning has little relationship with the observed Hg concentration or Hg accumulation rates. Examined using a sediment focusing-corrected mass accumulation rate approach, the cores have similar anthropogenic atmospheric Hg deposition profiles, suggesting that after accounting for background sediment concentrations the source of accumulating Hg is predominantly atmospheric in origin. In summary, the data document an increase of Hg flux to the Lake Tanganyika ecosystem that is consistent with increasing watershed sediment delivery with background-level Hg contamination, and regional as well as global increases in atmospheric Hg deposition.     

Integrated provenance analysis of a convergent retroarc foreland system: U–Pb ages,heavy minerals,Nd isotopes,and sandstone compositions of the Middle Magdalena Valley basin,northern Andes,Colombia

Sediment provenance analysis remains a powerful method for testing hypotheses on the temporal and spatial evolution of uplifted source regions, but issues such as recycling, nonunique sources, and pre- and post-depositional modifications may complicate interpretation of results from individual provenance techniques. Convergent retroarc systems commonly contain sediment sources that are sufficiently diverse (continental magmatic arc, fold–thrust belt, and stable craton) to enable explicit provenance assessments. In this paper, we combine detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology, heavy mineral identification, Nd isotopic analyses, conventional sandstone petrography, and paleocurrent measurements to reconstruct the clastic provenance history of a long-lived sedimentary basin now exposed in an intermontane zone of the northern Andean hinterland of Colombia. The Middle Magdalena Valley basin, situated between the Central Cordillera and Eastern Cordillera, contains a 5–10 km-thick succession of Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary fill. The integrated techniques show a pronounced change in provenance during the Paleocene transition from the lower to upper Lisama Formation. We interpret this as a shift from an eastern cratonic source to a western Andean source composed of magmatic-arc rocks uplifted during initial shortening of the Central Cordillera. The appearance of detrital chloritoid and a shift to more negative ε_Nd(t=0) values in middle Eocene strata of the middle La Paz Formation are attributed to shortening-related exhumation of a continental basement block (La Cira–Infantas paleohigh), now buried, along the axis of the Magdalena Valley. The diverse provenance proxies also show distinct changes during middle to late Eocene deposition of the Esmeraldas Formation that likely reflect initial rock uplift and exhumation of the fold–thrust belt defining the Eastern Cordillera. Upsection, detrital zircon U–Pb ages and heavy mineral assemblages for Oligocene and younger clastic deposits indicate that the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of the Eastern Cordillera was recycled during continued Cenozoic shortening. Our multidisciplinary provenance study refines the tectonic history of the Colombian Andes and demonstrates that uncertainties related to sediment recycling, nonunique sources, source heterogeneity, and climate in interpreting provenance data can be minimized via an integrated approach.     

Implications of channel flow analogue models for extrusion of the Higher Himalayan Shear Zone with special reference to the out-of-sequence thrusting

The Higher Himalayan Shear Zone (HHSZ) contains a ductile top-to-N/NE shear zone—the South Tibetan detachment system-lower (STDS_L) and an out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) as well as a top-to-N/NE normal shear at its northern boundary and ubiquitously distributed compressional top-to-S/SW shear throughout the shear zone. The OOST that was active between 22 Ma and the Holocene, varies in thickness from 50 m to 6 km and in throw from 1.4 to 20 km. Channel flow analogue models of this structural geology were performed in this work. A Newtonian viscous polymer (PDMS) was pushed through a horizontal channel leading to an inclined channel with parallel and upward-diverging boundaries analogous to the HHSZ and allowed to extrude to the free surface. A top-to-N/NE shear zone equivalent to the STDS_U developed spontaneously. This also indirectly connotes an independent flow confined to the southern part of the HHSZ gave rise to the STDS_L. The PDMS originally inside the horizontal channel extruded at a faster rate through the upper part of the inclined channel. The lower boundary of this faster PDMS defined the OOST. The model OOST originated at the corner and reached the vent at positions similar to the natural prototype some time after the channel flow began. The genesis of the OOST seems to be unrelated to any rheologic contrast or climatic effects. Profound variations in the flow parameters along the HHSZ and the extrusive force probably resulted in variations in the timing, location, thickness and slip parameters of the OOST. Variation in pressure gradient within the model horizontal channel, however, could not be matched with the natural prototype. Channel flow alone presumably did not result in southward propagation of deformation in the Himalaya.     

Monitoring and Modeling of Syringodium filiforme (Manatee Grass) in Southern Indian River Lagoon

Decreased salinity and submarine light associated with hurricanes of 2004?C2005 impacted seagrass habitats in the Florida coastal zone. A combination of salinities ??20 and light attenuation ??1.5?m^?1 resulting from the freshwater discharge in 2005 were among the drivers for a widespread decrease in the coverage and biomass of Syringodium filiforme (manatee grass) in 2006. These observations provided an opportunity to develop and apply a modeling framework to simulate responses of S. filiforme to variable water quality. The framework connects water column variables to field monitoring of seagrass abundance and salinity growth response experiments. The base model was calibrated with macrophyte abundance observed in southern Indian River Lagoon (IRL) from 2002 to 2007 and tested against shoot data from a different time (1997?C2002) and nearby location in the IRL. Model shoot biomass (gC?m^?2) was similar to field observations (r ²?=?0.70) while responding to monthly seasonal fluctuations in salinity and light throughout the 6-year simulations. Field and model results indicated that S. filiforme growth and survival were sensitive to, and increased with, rising salinity throughout 2007. This modeling study emphasizes that discharge, salinity, and submarine light are inter-dependent variables affecting South Florida seagrass habitats on seasonal to inter-annual time scales.     

Habitat Use by Coastal Birds Inferred from Stable Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes

Conservationists need to know the degree of habitat fidelity for species of conservation concern. Stable Isotope Analysis in R quantified the contribution of terrestrial vs. saltmarsh primary production sources to terrestrial passerine food webs from four habitats of Sapelo Island, Georgia (USA), saltmarsh, maritime scrub–shrub, maritime broadleaf (oak), and maritime narrowleaf (pine) forests, using δ ¹³C and δ ¹⁵N. Models suggested Northern Parula (Parula americana) in oak forests, White-eyed Vireos (Vireo griseus) in shrub, and Brown-headed Nuthatches (Sitta pusilla) in pine forests derived most of their food from habitats they occupied (53–100%). Saltmarsh provided 47–94% of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) food sources, supporting previous findings by Springborn and Meyers (2005). Thus, Painted Bunting conservation in the Southeastern USA should focus on Springborn and Meyers’ suggestion of maritime scrub–shrub habitat and forests with <75% canopy, >50% ground cover, and patches of shrubs that are within 700 m of saltmarsh.     

Evaluating the impact of caprock and reservoir properties on potential risk of CO2 leakage after injection

Numerical models are essential tools in fully understanding the fate of injected CO₂ for commercial-scale sequestration projects and should be included in the life cycle of a project. Common practice involves modeling the behavior of CO₂ during and after injection using site-specific reservoir and caprock properties. Little has been done to systematically evaluate and compare the effects of a broad but realistic range of reservoir and caprock properties on potential CO₂ leakage through caprocks. This effort requires sampling the physically measurable range of caprock and reservoir properties, and performing numerical simulations of CO₂ migration and leakage. In this study, factors affecting CO₂ leakage through intact caprocks are identified. Their physical ranges are determined from the literature from various field sites. A quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach is used such that the full range of caprock and reservoir properties can be evaluated without bias and redundant simulations. For each set of sampled properties, the migration of injected CO₂ is simulated for up to 200 years using the water–salt–CO₂ operational mode of the STOMP simulator. Preliminary results show that critical factors determining CO₂ leakage rate through caprocks are, in decreasing order of significance, the caprock thickness, caprock permeability, reservoir permeability, caprock porosity, and reservoir porosity. This study provides a function for prediction of potential CO₂ leakage risk due to permeation of intact caprock and identifies a range of acceptable seal thicknesses and permeability for sequestration projects. The study includes an evaluation of the dependence of CO₂ injectivity on reservoir properties.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.     

Assessing spatial associations between perceptions of landscape value and climate change risk for use in climate change planning

This study examines spatially referenced perceived landscape values and climate change risks collected through public participation geographic information systems for potential use in climate change planning. Using survey data from the Southern Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia, we present a method for identifying perceived landscape values and climate change risks to describe and quantify their spatial associations. Two spatial data models??vector and raster??and two analytical methods??Jaccard coefficients and spatial cross-correlations were used to describe the spatial associations. Results indicate that perceptions of climate change risk are driven, in part, by the values people assign or hold for places on the landscape. Biodiversity and intrinsic landscape values have strong spatial association with biodiversity loss risk while recreation values have strong spatial association with riparian flooding, sea-level rise and wave action risks. Other landscape values show weak to no spatial association with perceived climate change risks. The methodology described in this research provides a mechanism for government agencies to develop place-based adaptation strategies based on these associations.