Toward a Spatial Understanding of Staple Food and Nonstaple Food Production in Brazil

Brazilian agricultural census data at the municipal level are used to develop and map a simple index of staple food versus nonstaple food agriculture for Brazil over time (1996–2006). The results show spatial variation in the direction and degree of the shift toward or away from staple food cropping across Brazil. The index is presented as an important methodological step toward a systematic geographic understanding of crop share changes surrounding food versus fuel and other nonfood crop production.     

A genetic algorithm for designing optimal patch configurations in GIS

Optimal patch design is a generic problem in which the objective is to find the best configuration of patches subject to multiple criteria. It is a hard problem in spatial geometry relevant to numerous applications in spatial planning and analysis. GIS packages do not have optimal patch design functions and there has been very little research in this area. This paper describes a computer system for solving optimal patch design problems in raster GIS. The method uses a genetic algorithm search heuristic combined with a region-growing programme that generates alternative patch configurations. The version described here solves multiple patch problems and was developed from an earlier version for designing single patches. In tests on a hypothetical planning problem the multi-patch version was found to be more efficient, but less effective, than the single patch version. The last part of the paper discusses outstanding issues regarding the applicability usability and external validity of the system and suggests ideas for further research.     

A global kinetic spatial data structure for a marine simulation

This paper proposes a new Free-Lagrange method based on the kinetic Voronoi diagram for fluid simulation. The objective here is to combine the advantages of an adoptive mesh structure with the advantages of kinetic mesh maintenance, and demonstrate their value for dynamic simulation. Despite the theoretical advantages of the Free-Lagrange method, its use has been handicapped with the reconstruction of topology after each time step that considerably reduces the efficiency of the method. In addition, the use of fixed time steps causes problems such as overshoots and undetected collisions. In order to demonstrate the ability of the proposed model to solve these problems, the method is applied to a dam-breaking problem and global tides. With the results obtained from these numerical experiments, the validity of the global kinetic data structure is approved. In particular, the method is found to be more efficient than existing methods. In addition, qualitative comparison of physical results with analytical solutions demonstrates the similarity of the results and confirms the physical validity of the proposed method. Further investigations with real-world data and the complete equation of motion are suggested to compare it with other numerical methods.     

Shifts in isotopic signatures of animals with complex life-cycles can complicate conclusions on cross-boundary trophic links

Stable isotopes (¹³C and ¹⁵N) are widely applied in studies of trophic links. We used this method to investigate the contribution of aquatic and terrestrial prey to the diet of riparian predatory arthropods in two mountain headwater streams in Colorado, USA. Aquatic and terrestrial prey and riparian predators were collected during summer 2009. To evaluate the reliability of conclusions based on stable isotope ratios, we compared the isotopic signatures of aquatic larval and terrestrial adult stages of three abundant stream insect species and assessed variation in mixing model estimates for spider diet composition under varying assumptions for trophic fractionation. Adult isotopic signatures of some aquatic prey species were indistinguishable from those of prey species with exclusively terrestrial life histories (stoneflies: ¹³C and ¹⁵N, chironomids: ¹³C). Other prey had distinctly aquatic isotopic signatures as both larvae and adults (a mayfly and a caddisfly). There was no evidence that prey with aquatic isotopic signatures contributed to the diet of the spiders near one stream. For the other stream, mixing model analysis suggested that chironomids were included in the diets of lycosid, linyphiid and liocranid spiders. Reliable estimates of the contributions of prey sources were compromised by the sensitivity of mixing models to assumptions on trophic fractionation and the presence of “isotopically cryptic” prey. This study emphasizes the importance of supporting isotope-based studies on cross-boundary trophic links with data on isotopic shifts in prey with complex life cycles and assessment of fractionation rates specific to the study system.     

Uncertainty in hydrologic modelling for estimating hydrologic response due to climate change (Santiam River,Oregon)

This paper explores the predicted hydrologic responses associated with the compounded error of cascading global circulation model (GCM) uncertainty through hydrologic model uncertainty due to climate change. A coupled groundwater and surface water flow model (GSFLOW) was used within the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) uncertainty approach and combined with eight GCMs to investigate uncertainties in hydrologic predictions for three subbasins of varying hydrogeology within the Santiam River basin in Oregon, USA. Predictions of future hydrology in the Santiam River include increases in runoff in the fall and winter months and decreases in runoff for the spring and summer months. One‐year peak flows were predicted to increase whereas 100‐year peak flows were predicted to slightly decrease. The predicted 10‐year 7‐day low flow decreased in two subbasins with little groundwater influences but increased in another subbasin with substantial groundwater influences. Uncertainty in GCMs represented the majority of uncertainty in the analysis, accounting for an average deviation from the median of 66%. The uncertainty associated with use of GSFLOW produced only an 8% increase in the overall uncertainty of predicted responses compared to GCM uncertainty. This analysis demonstrates the value and limitations of cascading uncertainty from GCM use through uncertainty in the hydrologic model, offers insight into the interpretation and use of uncertainty estimates in water resources analysis, and illustrates the need for a fully nonstationary approach with respect to calibrating hydrologic models and transferring parameters across basins and time for climate change analyses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dose-dependent response of a benthic system to biodeposition from suspended blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) culture

This study reports the results of a field experiment using benthic mesocosms that examined dose-dependent effects of mussel biodeposition on the benthic environment. Mesocosms were placed in the natural sea bottom and subjected to one of eight levels of biodeposition (from 0 to 1400 mussels m^?2). Most analyses indicated non-linear (i.e., threshold) effects. Sediment characteristics changed significantly between 200 and 400 mussels m^?2 as did multivariate community structure. Community structure effects were characterised by changes in abundances of species that are very sensitive or tolerant to organic loading. The multivariate AZTI Marine Biotic Index (M-AMBI) indicated that the benthic status changed from High to Good in all mesocosms receiving biodeposits. Sediments acted as a sink for oxygen (O₂), but results suggest O₂ sediment demand was not sensitive enough to evaluate organic loading impacts. Results from this and improved experiments can be used to determine the environmental carrying capacity of sites for bivalve culture.     

SWAT-based hydrological modelling of tropical land-use scenarios

Abstract

The Hulu Langat basin, a strategic watershed in Malaysia, has in recent decades been exposed to extensive changes in land-use and consequently hydrological conditions. In this work, the impact of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) on hydrological conditions (water discharge and sediment load) of the basin were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four land-use scenarios were defined for land-use change impact analysis, i.e. past, present (baseline), future and water conservation planning. The land-use maps, dated 1984, 1990, 1997 and 2002, were defined as the past scenarios for LUCC impact analysis. The present scenario was defined based on the 2006 land-use map. The 2020 land-use map was simulated using a cellular automata-Markov model and defined as the future scenario. Water conservation scenarios were produced based on guidelines published by Malaysia’s Department of Town and Country Planning and Department of Environment. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis was performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model robustness for water discharge simulation for the period 1997–2008 was good. However, due to uncertainties, mainly resulting from intense urban development in the basin, its robustness for sediment load simulation was only acceptable for the calibration period 1997–2004. The optimized model was run using different land-use maps over the periods 1997–2008 and 1997–2004 for water discharge and sediment load estimation, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, SWAT simulation using the past and conservative scenarios showed significant reduction in monthly direct runoff and monthly sediment load, while SWAT simulation based on the future scenario showed significant increase in monthly direct runoff, monthly sediment load and groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 10¹–10² km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.