Influence d'un changement climatique dû à une hausse de gaz à effet de serre sur l'agriculture au quebec

Abstract

This study, using a climate change scenario generated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM) examines the impacts of such a climate change on agriculture in southern Quebec. Using a crop model from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), yield responses of a variety of cereals, legumes, oleaginous and special crops to climate change are analysed and discussed.

Results show that under the 2 × CO₂ climate scenario the growing season would be longer and accumulation of corn heat units and growing degree days would be more important than under actual climate (1961–1990). One of the more important results of this study is that, on the one hand yield of C₃ cereals would be lower and that of C₄ cereals higher in most agricultural regions. On the other hand, the direct fertilisation effect of increased CO₂ is not considered. It must be cautioned however that we can not generalise results obtained for one legume crop to all legumes.     

The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability.     

Public engagement on solar radiation management and why it needs to happen now

There have been a number of calls for public engagement in geoengineering in recent years. However, there has been limited discussion of why the public should have a say or what the public can be expected to contribute to geoengineering discussions. We explore how public engagement can contribute to the research, development, and governance of one branch of geoengineering, solar radiation management (SRM), in three key ways: 1. by fulfilling ethical requirements for the inclusion of affected parties in democratic decision making processes; 2. by contributing to improved dialogue and trust between scientists and the public; and 3. by ensuring that decisions about SRM research and possible deployment are informed by a broad set of societal interests, values, and framings. Finally, we argue that, despite the nascent state of many SRM technologies, the time is right for the public to participate in engagement processes.     

Testing variations within the Tagish Lake meteorite—I: Mineralogy and petrology of pristine samples

Four samples (TL5b, TL11h, TL11i, and TL11v) from the pristine collection of the Tagish Lake meteorite, an ungrouped C2 chondrite, were studied to characterize and understand its alteration history using EPMA, XRD, and TEM. We determined that samples TL11h and TL11i have a relatively smaller proportion of amorphous silicate material than sample TL5b, which experienced low‐temperature hydrous parent‐body alteration conditions to preserve this indigenous material. The data suggest that lithic fragments of TL11i experienced higher degrees of aqueous alteration than the rest of the matrix, based on its low porosity and high abundance of coarse‐ and fine‐grained sheet silicates, suggesting that TL11i was present in an area of the parent body where alteration and brecciation were more extensive. We identified a coronal, “flower”‐like, microstructure consisting of a fine‐grained serpentine core and coarse‐grained saponite‐serpentine radial arrays, suggesting varied fluid chemistry and crystallization time scales. We also observed pentlandite with different morphologies: an exsolved morphology formed under nebular conditions; a nonexsolved pentlandite along grain boundaries; a “bulls‐eye” sulfide morphology and rims around highly altered chondrules that probably formed by multiple precipitation episodes during low‐temperature aqueous alteration (≥100 °C) on the parent body. On the basis of petrologic and mineralogic observations, we conclude that the Tagish Lake parent body initially contained a heterogeneous mixture of anhydrous precursor minerals of nebular and presolar origin. These materials were subjected to secondary, nonpervasive parent‐body alteration, and the samples studied herein represent different stages of that hydrous alteration, i.e., TL5b (the least altered) < TL11h < TL11i (the most altered). Sample TL11v encompasses the petrologic characteristics of the other three specimens.     

Maritime zones in the Southern Ocean: problems concerning the correspondence of natural and legal maritime zones

A significant body of international law drafted simultaneously but separately for the Antarctic Treaty system (ATS) and the law of the sea affects the Southern Ocean. Although this ocean is characterized by several distinct geophysical zones, it is not easy to secure a consensus regarding an appropriate northern boundary. The law of the sea defines a series of maritime jurisdictional zones, whose application to Antarctica is hindered by the region's continuing uncertain legal status. Nevertheless, the Antarctic relevance of the law of the sea raises a number of interesting questions, while highlighting the fact that legal zones in Antarctica have often developed without taking full account of geographical criteria. An understanding of geographical and other factors facilitates an improved understanding of the need for new legal approaches designed to regulate Antarctic activities in a more equitable and effective manner.     

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.