A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.     

A New Species of Rhodoleia (Hamamelidaceae) from the Upper Pliocene of West Yunnan, China and Comments on Phytogeography and Insect Herbivory

In Europe, fossil fruits and seeds of Rhodoleia (Hamamelidaceae) have been described from the Upper Cretaceous to the Miocene, whereas no fossil record of Rhodoleia has been reported in Asia, where the modern species occur. Herein, 21 fossil leaves identified as Rhodoleia tengchongensis sp. nov. are described from the Upper Pliocene of Tengchong County, Yunnan Province, Southwest China. The fossils exhibit elliptic lamina with entire margins, simple brochidodromous major secondary veins, mixed percurrent intercostal tertiary veins, and looped exterior tertiaries. The leaf cuticle is characterized by pentagonal or hexagonal cells, stellate multicellular trichomes, and paracytic stomata. The combination of leaf architecture and cuticular characteristics suggests that the fossil leaves should be classified into the genus Rhodoleia. The fossil distributions indicate that the genus Rhodoleia might originate from Central Europe, and that migrated to Asia prior to the Late Pliocene. Additionally, insect damage is investigated, and different types of damage, such as hole feeding, margin feeding, surface feeding, and galling, are observed on the thirteen fossil leaves. Based on the damage frequencies for the fossil and extant leaves, the specific feeding behavior of insects on Rhodoleia trees appears to have been established as early as the Late Pliocene. The high occurrence of Rhodoleia insect herbivory may attract the insect-foraging birds, thereby increasing the probability of pollination.     

From the Seam to the Stove: greenhouse gas assessment and the coal seam gas industry in Australia

In Australia, Coal Seam Gas (CSG) is a relatively new source of natural gas commonly advocated as a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alternative to coal. This study investigates how GHG emissions have been, and potentially could be, assessed within the Australian CSG industry. The research involved a document analysis of several Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) and consultant reports prepared as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process for major CSG projects in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld). There were found to be inconsistencies in the conduct of greenhouse assessment by the CSG industry, including how complete and transparent assessments were, as well as how effectively they addressed project emission intensity and cumulative impacts. There were also found to be large inconsistencies between assessments carried out for Qld projects and those for NSW projects, likely because of differences in how assessment requirements are applied by planning bodies. This study also highlights how alternative assessment approaches, such as Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), have potential to enable a broader and more consistent understanding of emission sources that cross a range of geographical and project boundaries.     

Decadal‐Scale Changes of the Ödenwinkelkees,Central Austria,Suggest Increasing Control of Topography and Evolution Towards Steady State

Small mountain glaciers have short mass balance response times to climate change and are consequently very important for short‐term contributions to sea level. However, a distinct research and knowledge gap exists between (1) wider regional studies that produce overview patterns and trends in glacier changes, and (2) in situ local scale studies that emphasise spatial heterogeneity and complexity in glacier responses to climate. This study of a small glacier in central Austria presents a spatiotemporally detailed analysis of changes in glacier geometry and changes in glaciological behaviour. It integrates geomorphological surveys, historical maps, aerial photographs, airborne LiDAR data, ground‐based differential global positioning surveys and Ground Penetrating Radar surveys to produce three‐dimensional glacier geometry at 13 time increments spanning from 1850 to 2013. Glacier length, area and volume parameters all generally showed reductions with time. The glacier equilibrium line altitude increased by 90 m between 1850 and 2008. Calculations of the mean bed shear stress rapidly approaching less than 100 kPA, of the volume–area ratio fast approaching 1.458, and comparison of the geometric reconstructions with a 1D theoretical model could together be interpreted to suggest evolution of the glacier geometry towards steady state. If the present linear trend in declining ice volume continues, then the Ödenwinkelkees will disappear by the year 2040, but we conceptualise that non‐linear effects of bed overdeepenings on ice dynamics, of supraglacial debris cover on the surface energy balance, and of local topographically driven controls, namely wind‐redistributed snow deposition, avalanching and solar shading, will become proportionally more important factors in the glacier net balance.     

Nature,origin and evolution of a Late Pleistocene incised valley‐fill,Sunda Shelf,Southeast Asia

Understanding the stratigraphic fill and reconstructing the palaeo‐hydrology of incised valleys can help to constrain those factors that controlled their origin, evolution and regional significance. This condition is addressed through the analysis of a large (up to 18 km wide by 80 m deep) and exceptionally well‐imaged Late Pleistocene incised valley from the Sunda Shelf (South China Sea) based on shallow three‐dimensional seismic data from a large (11 500 km²), ‘merge’ survey, supplemented with site survey data (boreholes and seismic). This approach has enabled the characterization of the planform geometry, cross‐sectional area and internal stratigraphic architecture, which together allow reconstruction of the palaeo‐hydrology. The valley‐fill displays five notable stratigraphic features: (i) it is considerably larger than other seismically resolvable channel forms and can be traced for at least 180 km along its length; (ii) it is located in the axial part of the Malay Basin; (iii) the youngest part of the valley‐fill is dominated by a large (600 m wide and 23 m deep), high‐sinuosity channel, with well‐developed lateral accretion surfaces; (iv) the immediately adjacent interfluves contain much smaller, dendritic channel systems, which resemble tributaries that drained into the larger incised valley system; and (v) a ca 16 m thick, shell‐bearing, Holocene clay caps the valley‐fill. The dimension, basin location and palaeo‐hydrology of this incised valley leads to the conclusion that it represents the trunk river, which flowed along the length of the Malay Basin; it connected the Gulf of Thailand in the north with the South China Sea in the south‐east. The length of the river system (>1200 km long) enables examination of the upstream to downstream controls on the evolution of the incised valley, including sea‐level, climate and tectonics. The valley size, orientation and palaeo‐hydrology suggest close interaction between the regional tectonic framework, low‐angle shelf physiography and a humid‐tropical climatic setting.     

Clinoform geometry,geomorphology, facies character and stratigraphic architecture of a sand‐rich subaqueous delta: Jurassic Sognefjord Formation,offshore Norway

The integration of core sedimentology, seismic stratigraphy and seismic geomorphology has enabled interpretation of delta‐scale (i.e. tens of metres high) subaqueous clinoforms in the upper Jurassic Sognefjord Formation of the Troll Field. Mud‐prone subaqueous deltas characterized by a compound clinoform morphology and sandy delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms are common in recent tide‐influenced, wave‐influenced and current‐influenced settings, but ancient examples are virtually unknown. The data presented help to fully comprehend the criteria for the recognition of other ancient delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms, as well as refining the depositional model of the reservoir in the super‐giant Troll hydrocarbon field. Two 10 to 60 m thick, overall coarsening‐upward packages are distinguished in the lower Sognefjord Formation. Progressively higher energy, wave‐dominated or current‐dominated facies occur from the base to the top of each package. Each package corresponds to a set of seismically resolved, westerly dipping clinoforms, the bounding surfaces of which form the seismic ‘envelope’ of a clinoform set and the major marine flooding surfaces recognized in cores. The packages thicken westwards, until they reach a maximum where the clinoform ‘envelope’ rolls over to define a topset–foreset–toeset geometry. All clinoforms are consistently oriented sub‐parallel to the edge of the Horda Platform (N005–N030). In the eastern half of the field, individual foresets are relatively gently dipping (1° to 6°) and bound thin (10 to 30 m) clinothems. Core data indicate that these proximal clinothems are dominated by fine‐grained, hummocky cross‐stratified sandstones. Towards the west, clinoforms gradually become steeper (5° to 14°) and bound thicker (15 to 60 m) clinothems that comprise medium‐grained, cross‐bedded sandstones. Topsets are consistently well‐developed, except in the westernmost area. No seismic or sedimentological evidence of subaerial exposure is observed. Deposition created fully subaqueous, near‐linear clinoforms that prograded westwards across the Horda Platform. Subaqueous clinoforms were probably fed by a river outlet in the north‐east and sculpted by the action of currents sub‐parallel to the clinoform strike.