On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...     

The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N2 fixation

The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO₂ is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO₂ accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO₂ of less than 1 PgC y⁻¹, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO₂ growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.     

Seismic images of a collision zone offshore NW Sabah/Borneo

Multichannel reflection seismic data from the southern South China Sea, refraction and gravity modelling were used to investigate the compressional sedimentary structures of the collision-prone continental margin off NW Borneo. An elongated imbricate deepwater fan, the toe Thrust Zone bounds the Northwest Borneo Trough to the southeast. The faults separating the individual imbricates cut through post-Early Miocene sediments and curve down to a carbonate platform at the top of the subsiding continental Dangerous Grounds platform that forms the major detachment surface. The age of deformation migrates outward toward the front of the wedge. We propose crustal shortening mechanisms as the main reason for the formation of the imbricate fan. At the location of the in the past defined Lower Tertiary Thrust Sheet tectonostratigraphic province a high velocity body was found but with a much smaller extend than the previously defined structure. The high velocity structure may be interpreted either as carbonates that limit the transfer of seismic energy into the sedimentary layers beneath or as Paleogene Crocker sediments dissected by remnants of a proto-South China Sea oceanic crust that were overthrust onto a southward migrating attenuated continental block of the Dangerous Grounds during plate convergence.     

Development and validation of a finite element morphological model for shallow water basins

Recognising the importance of understanding sediment dynamics to evaluate the status of a coastal lagoon environment, this work has been focused on the investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes occurring in such basins. In order to describe the lagoon system, a modelling approach combining hydrodynamics, waves and sediment dynamics has been developed. The framework of the numerical model consists of a finite element hydrodynamic model, a third generation finite element spectral wave model and a sediment transport and morphodynamic model for both cohesive and non-cohesive sediments. The model adopts the finite element technique for spatial integration, which has the advantage to describe more accurately complicated bathymetry and irregular boundaries for shallow water areas. The developed model has been applied to test cases and to a very shallow tidal lagoon, the Venice Lagoon, Italy. Numerical results show good agreement with water level, waves and turbidity measurements collected in several monitoring stations inside the Lagoon of Venice. Such a model represents an indispensable tool in analysing coastal problems and assessing morphological impacts of human interference.     

Asteroid impact effects on Snowball Earth

Several Snowball Earth periods, in which the Earth has been (almost) totally glaciated, are known from Earth history. Neither the trigger for the initiation, nor the reason for the ending of such phases, are well understood. Here we discuss some mechanical effects of the impact of asteroids 5–10 km in diameter on the Snowball Earth environment. An impact of this scale is the largest impact that is statistically predictable for 10–60 Myr time periods. The impact cratering itself (shock waves, impact crater formation) is not powerful enough to change the natural climate evolution path on Earth. However, the products of impact (mainly—water vapor) can be quickly distributed over a substantial part of the globe, influencing the global circulation (e.g., facilitating cloud formation). It is a question for future studies to confirm if such an event (which is possible statistically during this interval) may or may not have influenced the global climate of the Snowball Earth, and/or contributed to deglaciation.     

Chemical composition and iron oxidation state of amorphous matrix silicates in the carbonaceous chondrite Acfer 094

Nanoscale amorphous silicates are a major component in primitive carbonaceous chondrite matrices and anhydrous interplanetary dust particles. Owing to their metastability and sensitive response to reactions with water, this material is of particular interest in understanding nebular and parent body processes in the early solar system. Here we investigated the amorphous silicate matrix (ASM) in the ungrouped carbonaceous chondrite Acfer 094 regarding its texture, chemical composition, and Fe oxidation state. We applied transmission electron microscopy techniques on six, focused ion beam technique-prepared, electron-transparent lamellae of Acfer 094 to determine the textures of this material. Furthermore, we used energy-dispersive X-ray analysis and electron energy loss spectroscopy to quantify the Fe content and the Fe oxidation state of the ASM. Textural investigations reveal differences in sulfide content, porosity, and distribution of the ASM among the samples, as well as evidence for rare recrystallization of phyllosilicate fibers. The chemical composition reveals mobilization of Fe. Furthermore, the determined Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios of the ASM in the six samples display a homogeneously high oxidation state (0.66–0.73). This high and homogeneous Fe oxidation state in the ASM of Acfer 094 disagrees with its formation as a primary phase in a reduced solar gas and must have been induced in a later stage process. Most likely, this process was aqueous alteration on the Acfer 094 parent body, which led to hydration and oxidation of the ASM, which is supported by textural and chemical evidence of aqueous alteration.     

New instrument for measuring water discharge by the salt dilution method

The instantaneous salt dilution method for water discharge measurements in open channels has been improved by the development of a new instrument measuring conductivity. The salt method consists of two parts: the calibration and the actual measurement in the stream. The calibration aims to calculate the linear relationship between electrical conductivity and salt concentration at various degrees of dilution in a salt solution. The original undiluted solution is injected into the water of a stream and the conductivity is measured downstream from the injection site. When measuring, the new instrument integrates the conductivity over time. From the value obtained on the instrument's display, the water discharge can easily be calculated on a hand-PC in the field. The instrument has eliminated the subsequent calculation work formerly necessary. It has increased the accuracy of the method and also reduced the need for field personnel during measurements.