The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions

Abstract

A new version of the PAGE model, PAGE2002, has been used to calculate the marginal impacts of CO₂, CH₄ and SF₆ emissions based on Scenario A2 of the IPCC. The mean marginal impact of CO₂ is found to be US$19 per tonne of carbon (or about US$5 per tonne of CO₂), for methane it is US$105 per tonne, and for SF₆ it is US$200,000 per tonne. For each gas, the range between the 5% and 95% points is about an order of magnitude. The climate change impacts of methane are a significant proportion of its market price, and for SF₆ the climate change impacts are much larger than the market price. The economics of schemes to reduce the leakage of SF₆ are transformed once the climate change impacts are properly counted.     

Profile response of a lacustrine multiple barred nearshore to a sequence of storm events

Profile change in a lacustrine multiple-barred nearshore was investigated over the ice-free season of 2001/2002 at Burley Beach on the southeastern shore of Lake Huron in order to identify the feedback mechanisms between the pre-existing morphology and the wave forcing and the consequence of those feedbacks to the behaviour of the nearshore environment. The characteristics of the offshore wave field were monitored using a Falmouth Scientific combined 3D-ACM wave recorder and pressure transducer. Supplemental wave data were downloaded from a 3-m discus buoy operated by the National Data Buoy Center, 75 km to the NW of the study site. The three nearshore bars were in a quasi-equilibrium state through a large part of the ice-free season, with dramatic changes occurring during relatively moderate storm events that followed much larger storms in late October. A comparison of the incident wave field with changes in the nearshore profile through canonical correlation analysis indicates that the morphology responds to the distribution of the significant, root-mean-square (rms) and average wave heights between surveys. The threshold between bar decay and onshore bar migration and growth is associated with the onset of breaking of the rms wave at the bar crest (H_rms h_cr⁻¹ ≈0.3–0.4). The threshold between onshore and offshore migration is associated with the onset of breaking of the average wave at the bar crest (H_avg h_cr⁻¹ ≈0.3–0.4), coincident with complete dissipation of the significant wave over the lakeward slope of the bar (H_s h_cr⁻¹ >0.6). Inshore wave data collected during an instrumented study at the same site revealed that the middle and inner bars remained at the threshold of onshore and offshore migration over a wide range of offshore significant wave heights (0.8 to 2.4 m) prior to the October storms. This self-organised equilibrium is a result of changes to the incident wave distribution through breaking on the outer bar. It is concluded that the prediction of bar response requires an understanding of the feedback between the bar and the local wave distribution in addition to an understanding of the feedback associated with the profile as a whole.     

Modelling the behaviour of accretion flows in X-ray binaries

We review how the recent increase in X-ray and radio data from black hole and neutron star binaries can be merged together with theoretical advances to give a coherent picture of the physics of the accretion flow in strong gravity. Both long term X-ray light curves, X-ray spectra, the rapid X-ray variability and the radio jet behaviour are consistent with a model where a standard outer accretion disc is truncated at low luminosities, being replaced by a hot, inner flow which also acts as the launching site of the jet. Decreasing the disc truncation radius leads to softer spectra, as well as higher frequencies (including quasi periodic oscillations, QPOs) in the power spectra, and a faster jet. The collapse of the hot flow when the disc reaches the last stable orbit triggers the dramatic decrease in radio flux, as well as giving a qualitative (and often quantitative) explanation for the major hard–soft spectral transition seen in black holes. The neutron stars are also consistent with the same models, but with an additional component due to their surface, giving implicit evidence for the event horizon in black holes. We review claims of observational data which conflict with this picture, but show that these can also be consistent with the truncated disc model. We also review suggested alternative models for the accretion flow which do not involve a truncated disc. The most successful of these converge on a similar geometry, where there is a transition at some radius larger than the last stable orbit between a standard disc and an inner, jet dominated region, with the X-ray source associated with a mildly relativistic outflow, beamed away from the disc. However, the observed uniformity of properties between black holes at different inclinations suggests that even weak beaming of the X-ray emission may be constrained by the data. After collapse of the hot inner flow, the spectrum in black hole systems can be dominated by the disc emission. Its behaviour is consistent with the existence of a last stable orbit, and such data can be used to estimate the black hole spin. By contrast, these systems can also show very different spectra at these high luminosities, in which the disc spectrum (and probably structure) is strongly distorted by Comptonization. The structure of the accretion flow becomes increasingly uncertain as the luminosity approaches (and exceeds) the Eddington luminosity, though there is growing evidence that winds may play an important role. We stress that these high Eddington fraction flows are key to understanding many disparate and currently very active fields such as ULX, Narrow Line Seyfert 1’s, and the growth of the first black holes in the Early Universe.     

Planetary X-ray fluorescence analogue laboratory experiments and an elemental abundance algorithm for C1XS

We have conducted laboratory experiments as an analogue to planetary XRF (X-ray fluorescence) missions in order to investigate the role of changing incidence (and phase) angle geometry and sample grain-size on the intensity of XRF from regolith-like samples. Our data provide evidence of a grain-size effect, where XRF line intensity decreases with increasing sample grain-size, as well as an almost ubiquitous increase in XRF line intensity above incidence angles of ∼60°. Data from a lunar regolith simulant are also used to test the accuracy of an XRF abundance algorithm developed at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), which is used to estimate the major element abundance of the lunar surface from Chandrayaan-1 X-ray Spectrometer (C1XS) XRF data. In ideal situations (i.e., when the input spectrum is well defined and the XRF spectrum has a sufficient signal to noise ratio) the algorithm can recover a known rock composition to within 1.0 elemental wt% (1σ).     

Resonant Absorption as Mode Conversion? II. Temporal Ray Bundle

A fast-wave pulse in a simple, cold, inhomogeneous MHD model plasma is constructed by Fourier superposition over frequency of harmonic waves that are singular at their respective Alfvén resonances. The pulse partially reflects before reaching the resonance layer, but also partially tunnels through to it to convert to an Alfvén wave. The exact absorption/conversion coefficient for the pulse is shown to be given precisely by a function of transverse wavenumber tabulated in Paper I of this sequence, and to be independent of frequency and pulse width.     

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.     

Performance analysis of integrated GPS/GLONASS carrier phase-based positioning

Due to the different signal frequencies for the GLONASS satellites, the commonly-used double-differencing procedure for carrier phase data processing can not be implemented in its straightforward form, as in the case of GPS. In this paper a novel data processing strategy, involving a three-step procedure, for integrated GPS/GLONASS positioning is proposed. The first is pseudo-range-based positioning, that uses double-differenced (DD) GPS pseudo-range and single-differenced (SD) GLONASS pseudo-range measurements to derive the initial position and receiver clock bias. The second is forming DD measurements (expressed in cycles) in order to estimate the ambiguities, by using the receiver clock bias estimated in the above step. The third is to form DD measurements (expressed in metric units) with the unknown SD integer ambiguity for the GLONASS reference satellite as the only parameter (which is constant before a cycle slip occurs for this satellite). A real-time stochastic model estimated by residual series over previous epochs is proposed for integrated GPS/GLONASS carrier phase and pseudo-range data processing. Other associated issues, such as cycle slip detection, validation criteria and adaptive procedure(s) for ambiguity resolution, is also discussed. The performance of this data processing strategy will be demonstrated through case study examples of rapid static positioning and kinematic positioning. From four experiments carried out to date, the results indicate that rapid static positioning requires 1 minute of single frequency GPS/GLONASS data for 100% positioning success rate. The single epoch positioning solution for kinematic positioning can achieve 94.6% success rate over short baselines (<6 km).