Barrier response to sea level rise and storms

This commentary brings together, as a Virtual Special Issue, several recent papers in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms that improve our understanding of coastal barrier response to relative sea level rise and a change in the frequency and/or magnitude of storm events. The ability to predict barrier response depends on the ability to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of sediment exchange amongst the nearshore, beach and dune. This exchange controls the height of the dune, which in turn determines the transfer of sediment to the backbarrier through washover and/or blowouts. The papers in this issue provide new insight on beach–dune interaction and the importance of this interaction to long‐term barrier evolution across a range of sites and scales, and how active management can influence this interaction and alter barrier response. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterizing the heterogeneity of karst critical zone and its hydrological function: An integrated approach

Spatial heterogeneity in the subsurface of karst environments is high, as evidenced by the multiphase porosity of carbonate rocks and complex landform features that result in marked variability of hydrological processes in space and time. This includes complex exchange of various flows (e.g., fast conduit flows and slow fracture flows) in different locations. Here, we integrate various “state‐of‐the‐art” methods to understand the structure and function of this poorly constrained critical zone environment. Geophysical, hydrometric, and tracer tools are used to characterize the hydrological functions of the cockpit karst critical zone in the small catchment of Chenqi, Guizhou Province, China. Geophysical surveys, using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), inferred the spatial heterogeneity of permeability in the epikarst and underlying aquifer. Water tables in depression wells in valley bottom areas, as well as discharge from springs on steeper hillslopes and at the catchment outlet, showed different hydrodynamic responses to storm event rainwater recharge and hillslope flows. Tracer studies using water temperatures and stable water isotopes (δD and δ¹⁸O) could be used alongside insights into aquifer permeability from ERT surveys to explain site‐ and depth‐dependent variability in the groundwater response in terms of the degree to which “new” water from storm rainfall recharges and mixes with “old” pre‐event water in karst aquifers. This integrated approach reveals spatial structure in the karst critical zone and provides a conceptual framework of hydrological functions across spatial and temporal scales.     

Observations of late winter Canadian tundra snow cover properties

Tundra snow cover is important to monitor as it influences local, regional, and global‐scale surface water balance, energy fluxes, as well as ecosystem and permafrost dynamics. Observations are already showing a decrease in spring snow cover duration at high latitudes, but the impact of changing winter season temperature and precipitation on variables such as snow water equivalent (SWE) is less clear. A multi‐year project was initiated in 2004 with the objective to quantify tundra snow cover properties over multiple years at a scale appropriate for comparison with satellite passive microwave remote sensing data and regional climate and hydrological models. Data collected over seven late winter field campaigns (2004 to 2010) show the patterns of snow depth and SWE are strongly influenced by terrain characteristics. Despite the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover, several inter‐annual consistencies were identified. A regional average density of 0.293 g/cm³ was derived and shown to have little difference with individual site densities when deriving SWE from snow depth measurements. The inter‐annual patterns of SWE show that despite variability in meteorological forcing, there were many consistent ratios between the SWE on flat tundra and the SWE on lakes, plateaus, and slopes. A summary of representative inter‐annual snow stratigraphy from different terrain categories is also presented. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐dimensional inversion of towed streamer electromagnetic data

A towed streamer electromagnetic system capable of simultaneous seismic and electromagnetic data acquisition has recently been developed and tested in the North Sea. We introduce a 3D inversion methodology for towed streamer electromagnetic data that includes a moving sensitivity domain. Our implementation is based on the 3D integral equation method for computing responses and Fréchet derivatives and uses the re‐weighted regularized conjugate gradient method for minimizing the objective functional with focusing regularization. We present two model studies relevant to hydrocarbon exploration in the North Sea. First, we demonstrate the ability of a towed electromagnetic system to detect and characterize the Harding field, a medium‐sized North Sea hydrocarbon target. We compare our 3D inversion of towed streamer electromagnetic data with 3D inversion of conventional marine controlled‐source electromagnetic data and observe few differences between the recovered models. Second, we demonstrate the ability of a towed streamer electromagnetic system to detect and characterize the Peon discovery, which is representative of an infrastructure‐led shallow gas play in the North Sea. We also present an actual case study for the 3D inversion of towed streamer electromagnetic data from the Troll field in the North Sea and demonstrate our ability to image all the Troll West Oil and Gas Provinces and the Troll East Gas Province. We conclude that 3D inversion of data from the current generation of towed streamer electromagnetic systems can adequately recover hydrocarbon‐bearing formations to depths of approximately 2 km. We note that by obviating the need for ocean‐bottom receivers, the towed streamer electromagnetic system enables electromagnetic data to be acquired over very large areas in frontier and mature basins for higher acquisition rates and relatively lower cost than conventional marine controlled‐source electromagnetic methods.     

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Abstract

A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km² tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D., 2012. Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1543–1561.     

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin,Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

ABSTRACT

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann     

Concordant late Paleozoic paleomagnetizations from the Atacama Desert: implications for tectonic models of the Chilean Andes

Paleomagnetic results are reported from three formations of late Paleozoic age from the northern Chilean Andes of the Atacama Desert. For the first time primary NRM components are resolved for Paleozoic units along the western flank of the central Andes. Pole positions are calculated for the formations, and compared with APW data for cratonic South America. These comparisons reveal that the collecting sites in the northern Domeyko and Almeida Ranges of the central Andes have undergone no paleomagnetically defined rotations or translation with respect to cratonic South America since the time of NRM acquisition, which is likely to have been in the lower parts of the Kiaman Reverse Interval. If growth of the South American lithosphere has involved accretion of exotic microplates they are either likely to be substantially older than units sampled here, or be restricted to more coastal terranes. The results, taken together with other paleomagnetic data from northern Chile and southern Peru which have showed a wide range of discordance in their declinations when compared to each other or APW data, lead to the conclusion that this region of the Andes during the Mesozoic or Cenozoic has not been affected by simple processes of clockwise oroclinal bending from Peru to Chile, nor regionally consistent patterns of block rotations.     

Multivariate Spatial Outlier Detection Using Robust Geographically Weighted Methods

Outlier detection is often a key task in a statistical analysis and helps guard against poor decision-making based on results that have been influenced by anomalous observations. For multivariate data sets, large Mahalanobis distances in raw data space or large Mahalanobis distances in principal components analysis, transformed data space, are routinely used to detect outliers. Detection in principal components analysis space can also utilise goodness of fit distances. For spatial applications, however, these global forms can only detect outliers in a non-spatial manner. This can result in false positive detections, such as when an observation’s spatial neighbours are similar, or false negative detections such as when its spatial neighbours are dissimilar. To avoid mis-classifications, we demonstrate that a local adaptation of various global methods can be used to detect multivariate spatial outliers. In particular, we account for local spatial effects via the use of geographically weighted data with either Mahalanobis distances or principal components analysis. Detection performance is assessed using simulated data as well as freshwater chemistry data collected over all of Great Britain. Results clearly show value in both geographically weighted methods to outlier detection.