Particle size effect on the saturation of methane hydrate in sediments – Constrained from experimental results

Except for those occurring at seafloor, most of natural gas hydrate form in sediments and are subject to the influence of sediment. Among these factors, the particle size effect on hydrate saturation level in sediment have been studied with a series of silica sands with various sizes, and the results obtained clearly indicate that particle size does play an important role in affecting the saturation level of hydrate in sediments. The proton relaxation times of water confined in the same series of silica sands, which were determined with NMR measurement, show logarithmic relationship with particle size. By comprehensive consideration of the results of hydrate saturation and water proton relaxation times, the particle size effect observed is tentatively explained by the water availability for hydrate formation in sediments.     

The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions

Abstract

A new version of the PAGE model, PAGE2002, has been used to calculate the marginal impacts of CO₂, CH₄ and SF₆ emissions based on Scenario A2 of the IPCC. The mean marginal impact of CO₂ is found to be US$19 per tonne of carbon (or about US$5 per tonne of CO₂), for methane it is US$105 per tonne, and for SF₆ it is US$200,000 per tonne. For each gas, the range between the 5% and 95% points is about an order of magnitude. The climate change impacts of methane are a significant proportion of its market price, and for SF₆ the climate change impacts are much larger than the market price. The economics of schemes to reduce the leakage of SF₆ are transformed once the climate change impacts are properly counted.     

Changing mantle sources in a suture zone in the heart of Pangea: implications for collisional tectonics during the waning stages of ocean closure

The formation and emplacement of syn-collisional mafic dykes that intrude suture zones and their association with orogenic processes are enigmatic. Southern Iberia records the Late Paleozoic amalgamation of Pangea and exposes today a fragment of Laurussia (South Portuguese Zone), which is spatially juxtaposed with autochthonous Gondwana. Fault-bounded oceanic metasedimentary rocks, mélanges and ophiolite complexes characterize the suture zone and are in turn crosscut by intrusive granitoid rocks and mafic dykes. The generation and emplacement of these mafic dykes and their relationship to the suture zone are undetermined. Field evidence shows the dykes were emplaced at high angles to pre-existing orogenic fabrics in the mélange, granitoid and metasedimentary rocks. Geochemical analyses (major, trace, rare earth elements) indicate the dykes exhibit a mid-ocean ridge basalt signature. U/Pb zircon geochronology reveals the crystallization age of the dykes is ca. 316 Ma and Sm–Nd isotopic analysis suggests a deep mantle source. Taken together, these data support existing temporal constraints on events leading up to the amalgamation of Pangea, and suggest progressive lower crustal delamination during the waning stages of continent–continent collision.     

Multivariate Spatial Outlier Detection Using Robust Geographically Weighted Methods

Outlier detection is often a key task in a statistical analysis and helps guard against poor decision-making based on results that have been influenced by anomalous observations. For multivariate data sets, large Mahalanobis distances in raw data space or large Mahalanobis distances in principal components analysis, transformed data space, are routinely used to detect outliers. Detection in principal components analysis space can also utilise goodness of fit distances. For spatial applications, however, these global forms can only detect outliers in a non-spatial manner. This can result in false positive detections, such as when an observation’s spatial neighbours are similar, or false negative detections such as when its spatial neighbours are dissimilar. To avoid mis-classifications, we demonstrate that a local adaptation of various global methods can be used to detect multivariate spatial outliers. In particular, we account for local spatial effects via the use of geographically weighted data with either Mahalanobis distances or principal components analysis. Detection performance is assessed using simulated data as well as freshwater chemistry data collected over all of Great Britain. Results clearly show value in both geographically weighted methods to outlier detection.     

Herschel SPIRE FTS telescope model correction

Emission from the Herschel telescope is the dominant source of radiation for the majority of SPIRE Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) observations, despite the exceptionally low emissivity of the primary and secondary mirrors. Accurate modelling and removal of the telescope contribution is, therefore, an important and challenging aspect of FTS calibration and data reduction pipeline. A dust-contaminated telescope model with time invariant mirror emissivity was adopted before the Herschel launch. However, measured FTS spectra show a clear evolution of the telescope contribution over the mission and strong need for a correction to the standard telescope model in order to reduce residual background (of up to 7 Jy) in the final data products. Systematic changes in observations of dark sky, taken over the course of the mission, provide a measure of the evolution between observed telescope emission and the telescope model. These dark sky observations have been used to derive a time dependent correction to the telescope emissivity that reduces the systematic error in the continuum of the final FTS spectra to ～0.35 Jy.     

Herschel celestial calibration sources

Celestial standards play a major role in observational astrophysics. They are needed to characterise the performance of instruments and are paramount for photometric calibration. During the Herschel Calibration Asteroid Preparatory Programme approximately 50 asteroids have been established as far-IR/sub-mm/mm calibrators for Herschel. The selected asteroids fill the flux gap between the sub-mm/mm calibrators Mars, Uranus and Neptune, and the mid-IR bright calibration stars. All three Herschel instruments observed asteroids for various calibration purposes, including pointing tests, absolute flux calibration, relative spectral response function, observing mode validation, and cross-calibration aspects. Here we present newly established models for the four large and well characterized main-belt asteroids (1) Ceres, (2) Pallas, (4) Vesta, and (21) Lutetia which can be considered as new prime flux calibrators. The relevant object-specific properties (size, shape, spin-properties, albedo, thermal properties) are well established. The seasonal (distance to Sun, distance to observer, phase angle, aspect angle) and daily variations (rotation) are included in a new thermophysical model setup for these targets. The thermophysical model predictions agree within 5 % with the available (and independently calibrated) Herschel measurements. The four objects cover the flux regime from just below 1,000 Jy (Ceres at mid-IR N-/Q-band) down to fluxes below 0.1 Jy (Lutetia at the longest wavelengths). Based on the comparison with PACS, SPIRE and HIFI measurements and pre-Herschel experience, the validity of these new prime calibrators ranges from mid-infrared to about 700 μm, connecting nicely the absolute stellar reference system in the mid-IR with the planet-based calibration at sub-mm/mm wavelengths.     

Some thoughts on the value added from a new round of climate change damage estimates

This paper offers some thoughts on the value added of new economic estimates of climate change damages. We begin with a warning to beware of analyses that are so narrow that they miss a good deal of the important economic ramifications of the full suite of manifestations of climate change. Our second set of comments focuses attention on one of the most visible products of integrated assessment modeling—estimates of the social cost of carbon which we take as one example of aggregate economic indicators that have been designed to summarize climate risk in policy deliberations. Our point is that these estimates are so sensitive to a wide range of parameters that improved understanding of economic damages across many (if not all) climate sensitive sectors may offer only limited value added. Having cast some doubt on the ability of improved estimates of economic damages to increase the value of economic damage estimates in integrated assessment modeling designed to inform climate policy deliberations, we offer an alternative approach—describing implicitly a research agenda that could (a) effectively inform mitigation decisions while, at the same time, (b) providing economic estimates for aggregate indicators like the social cost of carbon.     

1/f noise in the UV solar spectral irradiance

The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the solar spectral irradiance as a function of the ultraviolet (UV) wavelength is attempted by exploiting rare observations performed at the Villard St. Pancrace station of the Lille University of Sciences and Technology ranging from 278 to 400 nm with a step of 0.05 nm every half an hour from nearly sunrise to sunset. To achieve this goal, the modern method of the detrended fluctuation analysis was applied on the solar spectral irradiance values versus wavelength. This analysis revealed that the solar incident flux at the top of the atmosphere and the solar spectral irradiance at the ground during two overcast sky days fluctuate with the UV wavelength exhibiting persistent long-range power-law behavior. More interestingly, the exponent of the power-law relationship between the fluctuations of the solar spectral irradiance versus UV wavelength at both the top of the atmosphere and the ground is consistently close to unity (of 1/f-type) throughout the day. This 1/f behavior has been detected in many complex dynamical systems, but despite much effort to derive a theory for its widespread occurrence in nature, it remains unexplained so far. According to the above-mentioned findings we speculate that the 1/f property of the incident solar UV flux at the top of the atmosphere could probably drive both the 1/f behavior depicted in the atmospheric components and the solar UV irradiance at the Earth's surface. The latter could influence the UV-sensitive biological ecosystems, giving rise to a 1/f-type variability in the biosphere, which has already been proven by recent observational data. We finally propose that Wien approximation could be multiplied by a 1/f function of wavelength (e.g., of the type of the fractional Brownian motion) in order to reproduce the aforementioned 1/f feature of the solar UV flux.     

Marginal mixing theories

Abstract

Mixing near the sloping boundaries of oceans or lakes may be a significant mechanism of diapycnal transport. The basic physics of this is reviewed, with emphasis on the reduction of the effectiveness of the process due to both reduced stratification and the restratifying secondary circulation driven by buoyancy forces. This re stratification is shown to reduce the effectiveness of intermittent mixing events as well as steady mixing. It is argued that for boundary mixing to be effective in the abyssal ocean it must extend sufficiently far from the boundary that the stratification can be maintained; this may be true for breaking bottom‐reflected internal waves. The alongslope flow implied by steady‐state boundary mixing theories is downwelling‐favourable and has a magnitude related to the thickness and other properties of the boundary layer. Mixing near a boundary may thus tend to drive a downwelling‐favourable mean circulation in the interior. If the interior circulation is imposed by other forces, the bottom boundary layer may evolve to a steady state if the interior flow is downwelling‐favourable, but if it is upwelling‐favourable initially a steady state seems unlikely and the downwelling‐favourable alongslope flow induced by the boundary mixing will tend to diffuse slowly into the interior. The nature of the solution in all these cases is sensitive to the Burger number, N² sin² θ/f², where θ is the bottom slope, and to the eddy Prandtl number.     

Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super‐interglacials?

Future projections of climate suggest our planet is moving into a ‘super‐interglacial’. Here we report a global synthesis of ice, marine and terrestrial data from a recent palaeoclimate equivalent, the Last Interglacial (ca. 130–116 ka ago). Our analysis suggests global temperatures were on average ～1.5°C higher than today (relative to the AD 1961–1990 period). Intriguingly, we identify several Indian Ocean Last Interglacial sequences that suggest persistent early warming, consistent with leakage of warm, saline waters from the Agulhas Current into the Atlantic, intensifying meridional ocean circulation and increasing global temperatures. This mechanism may have played a significant positive feedback role during super‐interglacials and could become increasingly important in the future. These results provide an important insight into a future 2°C climate stabilisation scenario. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.