MELTWATER FLUXES AT AN ARCTIC FOREST-TUNDRA SITE

Models of surface energy balance and snow metamorphism are utilized to predict the energy and meltwater fluxes at an Arctic site in the forest–tundra transition zone of north-western Canada. The surface energy balance during the melt period is modelled using an hourly bulk aerodynamic approach. Once a snowcover becomes patchy, advection from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas results in a large spatial variation in basin snowmelt. In order to illustrate the importance of small-scale, horizontal advection, a simple parameterization scheme using sensible heat fluxes from snow free areas was tested. This scheme estimates the maximum horizontal advection of sensible heat from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas. Calculated melt was routed through the measured snowcover in each landscape type using a variable flow path, meltwater percolation model. This allowed the determination of the spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of meltwater release for runoff. Model results indicate that the initial release of meltwater first occurred on the shallow upland tundra sites, but meltwater release did not occur until nearly two weeks later on the deep drift snowcovers. During these early periods of melt, not all meltwater is available for runoff. Instead, there is a period when some snowpacks are only partially contributing to runoff, and the spatial variation of runoff contribution corresponds to landscape type. Comparisons of melt with and without advection suggests that advection is an important process controlling the timing of basin snowmelt.     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Oceanic versus island arc origin of ophiolites

The silica content of basaltic rocks is an unreliable variable with which to distinguish ultramafic-mafic complexes developed at ocean ridges from those potentially formed beneath volcanic island arcs. Data from Appalachian ophiolites supports the view that silica metasomatism is responsible for the high silica content of supposed calc-alkaline basaltic rocks found in ophiolites such as Troodos, and that the high-silica (70 wt.%) leucocratic rocks associated with ophiolites are of tholeiitic rather than calc-alkaline parentage. The use of titanium as a discriminant of tectonic environment is also suspect because the titanium content of basalts associated with Appalachian ophiolites as well as those recently recovered from the Atlantic ocean floor ranges from values even lower than those typical of island arc tholeiites to values typical of abyssal tholeiites. However, the internal stratigraphy of ophiolites in both the Appalachian and Tethyan systems can only be explained on the basis of the postulate that ophiolites originate at oceanic spreading centres rather than beneath island arcs.     

Solar rotation, 1966–1978

Photospheric and chromospheric spectroscopic Doppler rotation rates for the full solar disk are analyzed for the period July, 1966 to July, 1978. An approximately linear secular increase of the equatorial rate of 3.7% for these 12 years is found (in confirmation of Howard, 1976). The high latitude rates above 65 ° appear to vary with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 8%, or more, phased to the sunspot cycle such that the most rapid rotation occurs at, or following, solar maximum. The chromosphere, as indicated by H, has continued to rotate on the average 3% faster than the photosphere agreeing with past observations. Sources of error are discussed and evaluated.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

The contribution of sulphur dioxide from ablating micrometeorites to the atmospheres of Earth and Mars

Atmospheric composition is a key control on climate and the habitability of planetary surfaces. Ablation of infalling micrometeorites has been recognised as one way in which atmospheric chemistry can be changed, especially at times in solar system history when the infall rates of exogenous material were high. Despite its potential to influence climate and habitability, extraterrestrial sulphur dioxide is currently an unquantified contribution to the atmospheres of the terrestrial planets. We have used flash pyrolysis to simulate the atmospheric entry of micrometeorites and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy to identify and quantify the sulphur dioxide produced from the carbonaceous meteorites Orgueil (CI1), ALH 88045 (CM1), Cold Bokkeveld (CM2), Murchison (CM2) and Mokoia (CV3). We have used this approach to understand the introduction of sulphur dioxide to the atmospheres of Earth and Mars from infalling micrometeorites. Sulphates, present in carbonaceous chondrites at a few wt.%, are resistant to thermal decomposition, limiting the yields of sulphur dioxide from unmelted micrometeorites. Infalling micrometeorites are a minor source of present-day sulphur dioxide on Earth and Mars, calculated to be up to around 2400 tonnes and about 350 tonnes, respectively. During the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB), the much greater infall rates of micrometeoritic dust are calculated to be associated with average production rates of sulphur dioxide of around 20 Mt yr⁻¹ for the early Earth and 0.5 Mt yr⁻¹ for early Mars, for a LHB of 100 Myr. These rates of delivery of sulphur dioxide at high altitudes would have reduced the solar energy reaching the surfaces of these planets, via scattering of sunlight by stratospheric sulphate aerosols, and may have had detrimental effects on developing biospheres by promoting cooler climates and reducing the probability of liquid water on planetary surfaces.