Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin,Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

ABSTRACT

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann     

Modeling ocean primary production: Sensitivity to spectral resolution of attenuation and absorption of light

Modeling the vertical penetration of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) through the ocean, and its utilization by phytoplankton, is fundamental to simulating marine primary production. The variation of attenuation and absorption of light with wavelength suggests that photosynthesis should be modeled at high spectral resolution, but this is computationally expensive. To model primary production in global 3d models, a balance between computer time and accuracy is necessary. We investigate the effects of varying the spectral resolution of the underwater light field and the photosynthetic efficiency of phytoplankton (α^*), on primary production using a 1d coupled ecosystem ocean turbulence model. The model is applied at three sites in the Atlantic Ocean (CIS (60°N), PAP (50°N) and ESTOC (30°N)) to include the effect of different meteorological forcing and parameter sets. We also investigate three different methods for modeling α^* – as a fixed constant, varying with both wavelength and chlorophyll concentration [Bricaud, A., Morel, A., Babin, M., Allali, K., Claustre, H., 1998. Variations of light absorption by suspended particles with chlorophyll a concentration in oceanic (case 1) waters. Analysis and implications for bio-optical models. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 31033–31044], and using a non-spectral parameterization [Anderson, T.R., 1993. A spectrally averaged model of light penetration and photosynthesis. Limnol. Oceanogr. 38, 1403–1419]. After selecting the appropriate ecosystem parameters for each of the three sites we vary the spectral resolution of light and α^* from 1 to 61 wavebands and study the results in conjunction with the three different α^*estimation methods. The results show modeled estimates of ocean primary productivity are highly sensitive to the degree of spectral resolution and α^*. For accurate simulations of primary production and chlorophyll distribution we recommend a spectral resolution of at least six wavebands if α^* is a function of wavelength and chlorophyll, and three wavebands if α^* is a fixed value.     

Stable isotopes in juvenile marine fishes and their invertebrate prey from the Thames Estuary,UK, and adjacent coastal regions

Estuaries are regarded as valuable nursery habitats for many commercially important marine fishes, potentially providing a thermal resource, refuge from predators and a source of abundant prey. Stable isotope analysis may be used to assess relative resource use from isotopically distinct sources. This study comprised two major components: (1) development of a spatial map and discriminant function model of stable isotope variation in selected invertebrate groups inhabiting the Thames Estuary and adjacent coastal regions; and (2) analysis of stable isotope signatures of juvenile bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), sole (Solea solea) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus) for assessment of resource use and feeding strategies. The data were also used to consider anthropogenic enrichment of the estuary and potential energetic benefits of feeding in estuarine nursery habitat.     

Stakeholder objective preferences in Australian Commonwealth managed fisheries

Fisheries management is increasingly involving a wide range of stakeholders in the decision making process. However, in most fisheries, the set of management objectives are poorly defined, and the implicit importance placed on these objectives may vary considerably both between and within different stakeholder groups. This may lead to conflicts within management advisory groups where members from different stakeholder groups view potential management outcomes substantially differently, and inconsistencies in decision making when changes in stakeholder representation take place. In this paper, the institutional structure of fisheries management in Australia and the roles the different organisations play in shaping fisheries management plans are detailed. An explicit hierarchy of management objectives is developed in collaboration with key managers and policy makers. A large survey of stakeholders involved in Australian Commonwealth fisheries management was undertaken to determine stakeholder preferences relating to these objectives. The results highlight the differences in perspectives regarding the relative importance of the multiple objectives of fisheries management. While on average stakeholder preferences generally correspond with their expected preference set, the results also indicate that there is generally low coherence within stakeholder groups.     

Experimental investigation of the system behaviour of a model three-legged jack-up on clay

Results from combined loading experiments dedicated to evaluating the capacity and stiffness of a single footing have significantly improved the understanding of the response of circular shallow foundations. However, due to experimental practicalities, little corroborative evidence is available to confirm predicted behaviour when multiple footings act within a structural system. This paper addresses this concern by presenting the results of a series of experimental tests on a three-legged model jack-up unit founded on soft, heavily overconsolidated clay. The model adopted geometric features representative of a large prototype rig by appropriately scaling leg height, leg separation and flexural stiffness, as well as the ‘spudcan’ footing diameter and profile. Pushover events were considered by subjecting the model jack-up to monotonic horizontal loading at hull level. By measuring loads and displacements at the hull and at each spudcan, the system behaviour of the jack-up could be analysed. Nine separate tests were performed, revealing how load orientation, leg length and preload ratio changed the system capacity and affected the load–displacement paths of the jack-up and spudcan system. The test results are compared with those derived from single spudcan experiments, and are interpreted within the combined load yield surface approach gaining acceptance within the offshore industry.     

Comparison of Two Integrated Methods for the Collection and Analysis of Volatile Organic Compounds in Ground Water

The principal difficulties with determinations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in ground water are the reliability of sampling procedures and analytical methods. Two integrated methods have been developed for routine sampling, processing, and analysis of VOCs in ground water. These methods involve in situ collection of ground water using a modified syringe sampler from PVC piezometers or using dedicated glass syringes from stainless steel multilevel bores. The samples are processed in the syringe using purge and trap or microsolvent extraction and analyzed by GC/MSD.
The modified purge-and-trap method is time-consuming and limited to volatile organic compounds. However, it is extremely sensitive and flexible: the volume of sample used can be varied by the use of different-size glass syringes (sample volumes from 1 to 100 mL).
In cases where extremely low sensitivity (<10 mg 1⁻¹) is not critical, the microextraction technique is a more cost-effective method, allowing twice as many samples to be analyzed in the same time as the purge-and-trap method. It enables less volatile compounds such as polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, phenol, and cresols to be analyzed in the same GC run. Also, the microextraction method can be used in the field to avoid delays associated with transportation of ground water samples to the laboratory.     

Effects of Direct Ocean CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Injection on Deep-Sea Meiofauna

Purposeful deep-sea carbon dioxide sequestration by direct injection of liquid CO₂ into the deep waters of the ocean has the potential to mitigate the rapid rise in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases. One issue of concern for this carbon sequestration option is the impact of changes in seawater chemistry caused by CO₂ injection on deep-sea ecosystems. The effects of deep-sea carbon dioxide injection on infaunal deep-sea organisms were evaluated during a field experiment in 3600 m depth off California, in which liquid CO₂ was released on the seafloor. Exposure to the dissolution plume emanating from the liquid CO₂ resulted in high rates of mortality for flagellates, amoebae, and nematodes inhabiting sediments in close proximity to sites of CO₂ release. Results from this study indicate that large changes in seawater chemistry (i.e. pH reductions of ∼0.5–1.0 pH units) near CO₂ release sites will cause high mortality rates for nearby infaunal deep-sea communities. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Very long baseline interferometry detection of an Infrared-Faint Radio Source

Infrared-Faint Radio Sources represent a new and unexpected class of object which is bright at radio wavelengths but unusually faint at infrared wavelengths. If, like most mJy radio sources, they were either conventional active or star-forming galaxies in the local Universe, we would expect them to be detectable at infrared wavelengths, and so their non-detection by the Spitzer Space Telescope is surprising. Here, we report the detection of one of these sources using very long baseline interferometry, from which we conclude that the sources are driven by active galactic nuclei. We suggest that these sources are either normal radio-loud quasars at high redshift or abnormally obscured radio galaxies.     

Geotechnical engineering practice for collapsible soils

Conditions in arid and semi-arid climates favor the formation of the most problematic collapsible soils. The mechanisms that account for almost all naturally occurring collapsible soil deposits are debris flows, rapid alluvial depositions, and wind-blown deposits (loess). Collapsible soils are moisture sensitive in that increase in moisture content is the primary triggering mechanism for the volume reduction of these soils. One result of urbanization in arid regions is an increase in soil moisture content. Therefore, the impact of development-induced changes in surface and groundwater regimes on the engineering performance of moisture sensitive arid soils, including collapsible soils, becomes a critical issue for continued sustainable population expansion into arid regions.In practicing collapsible soils engineering, geotechnical engineers are faced with (1) identification and characterization of collapsible soil sites, (2) estimation of the extent and degree of wetting, (3) estimation of collapse strains and collapse settlements, and (4) selection of design/mitigation alternatives. Estimation of the extent and degree of wetting is the most difficult of these tasks, followed by selection of the best mitigation alternative.