Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

The Natural Resource Management Planning Portal: Perspectives for NRM Planning and Reporting

Natural Resource Management (NRM) is often conducted as a partnership between government and citizens. In Australia, government agencies formulate policy and fund implementation that may be delivered on-ground by community groups (such as Landcare). Since the late 1980s, over AUS$8b of Commonwealth investment has been made in NRM. However, quantitative evidence of environmental improvements is lacking. The NRM Planning Portal has been developed to (1) provide an online spatial information system for sharing Landcare and agency data; and (2) to facilitate NRM priority setting at local and regional planning scales. While the project successfully federates Landcare NRM activity data, challenges included (1) unstructured, non-standardized data, meaning that quantitative reporting against strategic objectives is not currently possible, and (2) a lack of common understanding about the value proposition for adopting the portal approach. Demonstrating the benefit of technology adoption is a key lesson for digital NRM planning.     

The Rocky Mountains And The Southwest: Using Feature Names To Study Two Iconic Subregions In The American West

Geographic regions can be defined in many ways, including via physiography, historical development patterns, language, and culture. After broadly surveying different methods of regionalization and their influences on studies of the American West, this article uses a vernacular‐mapping approach to: first, propose distinctive toponyms that are relatively unique to cultures situated in the American Rocky Mountains and Southwest areas; second, map the spatial distributions of these toponyms across the western American landscape; and, third, compare the resulting distributions to the geographies of western businesses that incorporate regional terms into their corporate names. Notably, while the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest are iconic American regions that have captured the imagination for centuries, their cultural geographies are relatively underexplored in the literature. This article makes a modest contribution to this research gap by using geographic information systems (GIS) to map high concentrations of culturally distinctive feature names. The results reveal that the boundaries of vernacular Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions correspond relatively well with boundaries delineated with physiographic characteristics     

Employment and Socio-spatial Relations in Australia's Cultural Economy

This paper examines the significance and contribution of Australian 'creative' industry activities in light of recent debates on the emergence of the 'cultural economy of cities'. First, census employment data and business location counts are used to illustrate patterns of metropolitan primacy and concentration in the cultural industries both across states and in Sydney. Second, the specificities of the locations of cultural production, and the links between cultural industry activities and wider urban-regional change are explored in more detail. A set of observations of urban-regional change is used to demonstrate how the notion of 'cultural economy' should include complex interactions between the material activities of consumers and producers, and the discursive worlds of image makers and place marketers. Urban renewal, housing market pressures and intra-regional migration all mediate Australian experiences of the 'cultural economy'. Such interactions, in addition to key quantitative data on employment and business activity, suggest important policy considerations.     

Academic publishing as 'creative' industry, and recent discourses of 'creative economies': some critical reflections

This paper continues recent discussions on the (geo)politics of the production of academic knowledges, in relation to the recent rise of narratives of 'the creative economy'. Creativity and the 'creative industries' are increasingly common components of urban economic development discourse, especially following the release of a set of key books – most notably Charles Landry's The Creative City (2000), and Richard Florida's The Rise of the Creative Class (2002) – that have become popular among economic development planners and cultural policy makers. This paper focuses on the traffic of these books, and their authors, beyond the Anglo-American core. It also briefly discusses policy discourses interpreted from these texts. It is principally, though, a critique of the ways in which academic knowledges circulate, stemming from theorization of academics as creative producers, and of knowledge production as part of the creative economy. The article seeks to critique the means by which particular northern economic knowledges become normative, framed as universal and 'global', and are distributed and absorbed via intellectual 'scenes' and an academic 'celebrity' circuit.     

Carbon dioxide recovery from industrial processes

The ongoing human-induced emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) threatens to change the earth's climate. One possible way of decreasing CO₂ emissions is to apply CO₂ removal, which involves recovering of carbon dioxide from energy conversion processes and storing it outside the atmosphere. Since the 1980's, the possibilities for recovering CO₂ from thermal power plants received increasing attention.In this study possible techniques of recovering CO₂ from large-scale industrial processes are assessed.In some industrial processes, e.g. ammonia production, CO₂ is recovered from the process streams to prevent it from interfering with the production process. The CO₂ thus recovered can easily be dehydrated and compressed, at low cost. In the iron and steel industry, carbon dioxide can be recovered from blast furnace gas. In the petrochemical industry CO₂ can be recovered from flue gases, using low-temperature heat for the separation process.Carbon dioxide can be recovered from large-scale industrial processes and in some cases the cost of recovery is significantly less than CO₂ recovery from thermal power plants. Therefore this option should be studied further and should be considered if carbon dioxide removal is introduced on a wide scale.     

Surface renewal analysis for sensible and latent heat flux density

High frequency temperature measurements were recorded at five heights and surface renewal (SR) analysis was used to estimate sensible heat flux density (H) over 0.1 m tall grass. Traces of the temperature data showed ramp-like structures, and the mean amplitude and duration of these ramps were used to calculate H using structure functions. Data were compared with H values measured with a sonic anemometer. Latent heat flux density (E) was calculated using an energy balance and the results were compared with E computed from the sonic anemometer data. SR analysis provided good estimates of H for data recorded at all heights but the canopy top and at the highest measurement level, which was above the fully adjusted boundary layer.     

Validation of climate model output using Bayesian statistical methods

The growing interest in and emphasis on high spatial resolution estimates of future climate has demonstrated the need to apply regional climate models (RCMs) to that problem. As a consequence, the need for validation of these models, an assessment of how well an RCM reproduces a known climate, has also grown. Validation is often performed by comparing RCM output to gridded climate datasets and/or station data. The primary disadvantage of using gridded climate datasets is that the spatial resolution is almost always different and generally coarser than climate model output. We have used a Bayesian statistical model derived from observational data to validate RCM output. We used surface air temperature (SAT) data from 109 observational stations in California, all with records of approximately 50 years in length, and created a statistical model based on this data. The statistical model takes into account the elevation of the station, distance from coastline, and the NOAA climate region in which the station resides. Analysis indicates that the statistical model provides reliable estimates of the mean monthly SAT at any given station. In our method, the uncertainty in the estimates produced by the statistical model are directly determined by obtaining probability density functions for predicted SATs. This statistical model is then used to estimate average SATs corresponding to each of the climate model grid cells. These estimates are compared to the output of the RCM to assess how well the RCM matches the observed climate as defined by the statistical model. Overall, the match between the RCM output and the statistical model is good, with some deficiencies likely due in part to the representation of topography in the RCM.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change

Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.