The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

The geodetic requirements for commercial data base management systems

There are many data base management systems now available as commercially marketed software packages. Although most of these packages were initially aimed at bussiness or administrative data processing applications, they may frequently also be the right tool for a scientific data processing task. This becomes more apparent as we notice that scientific computer programmers are spending more and more time on data management requirements rather than the coding of mathematical algorithms. In a scientific environment, a generalized data base management package is best viewed as a tool for programmers, rather than as a tool for direct, independent use by end users or by agency management. To the end user, the most attractive feature of a commerical DBMS is usually the interactive retrieval and update language. To the programmer, the most attractive feature is more likely to be the strong support for various types of keyed access. All of the manipulations necessary to build and maintain indices and other tables can be treated as procedural abstractions. Coupled with a procedural language, a DBMS offers the programmer a higher level (in the sense of more abstract) language. The most important geodetic requirement on a commercial DBMS is therefore that the package contain a strong Data Manipulation Language, with strong support for the algorithmic language used for scientific processing. Presented at International Symposium on Management of Geodetic Data, Copenhagen, August 24–26, 1981.     

Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).     

Sea-level and reef accretion history of Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 7 and late Stage 5 based on age and facies of submerged late Pleistocene reefs,Oahu, Hawaii

In situ Pleistocene reefs form a gently sloping nearshore terrace around the island of Oahu. TIMS Th–U ages of in situ corals indicate that most of the terrace is composed of reefal limestones correlating to Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 7 (MIS 7, ~ 190–245 ka). The position of the in situ MIS 7 reef complex indicates that it formed during periods when local sea level was ~ 9 to 20 m below present sea level. Its extensiveness and geomorphic prominence as well as a paucity of emergent in situ MIS 7 reef-framework deposits on Oahu suggest that much of MIS 7 was characterized by regional sea levels below present. Later accretion along the seaward front of the terrace occurred during the latter part of MIS 5 (i.e., MIS 5a–5d, ~ 76–113 ka). The position of the late MIS 5 reefal limestones is consistent with formation during a period when local sea level was below present. The extensiveness of the submerged Pleistocene reefs around Oahu compared to the relative dearth of Holocene accretion is due to the fact that Pleistocene reefs had both more time and more accommodation space available for accretion than their Holocene counterparts.     

Identification of regions enriched or depleted in radioelements through nondistributional analysis of aerial radiometric data

Throughout the aerial radiometric reconnaissance survey portion of the U.S. Department of Energy's National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program, the identification of outliers (anomalies) was an important approach to locating regions with radio-element concentrations that are either higher or lower than expected. The method introduced herein to locate such regions involves three steps: selection of a high (or low) threshold for the variate of interest; use of the sample percentile to identify all points of interest; and movement of a window over the selected data to locate significant clusters of observations. These steps, applied to aerial radiometric ²¹⁴Bi (equivalent uranium) data collected over the Copper Mountain area in Wyoming, resulted in the identification of areas enriched in that variate.