基于Lorenz系统提取数值模式可预报分量的初步试验

针对数值预报模式中存在的非线性混沌特性, 从提取可预报分量的思路出发, 阐述了在数值模式中提取可预报分量的方法, 并利用Lorenz系统进行了相关数值试验。研究发现, Lorenz系统初始误差在相空间中的增长速度是不同的, 某些方向的误差增长速度较慢, 即存在对初值扰动不敏感、相对稳定的可预报分量。根据数值模式切线性误差算子的特征值演化规律, 提取出数值模式的可预报分量, 并将模式变量在其基底上进行投影变换, 建立了可预报分量数值模式。在此基础上, 研究了Lorenz系统的混沌状态、模式参数误差及外部随机噪声对提取可预报分量的影响, 发现基于可预报分量的数值模式, 具有更好的预报技巧。     

Effects of variations of parallel angular velocity and vorticity on the oscillations of compressible homogeneous rotating ellipsoids

Earlier work on the oscillations of an ellipsoid is extended to investigate the behaviour of a nonequilibrium compressible homogeneous rotating gaseous ellipsoid, with the components of the velocity field as linear functions of the coordinates, and with parallel angular velocity and uniform vorticity. The dynamical behaviour of the ellipsoid is obtained by numerically integrating the relevant differential equations for different values of the initial angular velocity and vorticity. This behaviour is displayed by the (a ₁,a ₂) and (a ₁,a ₃) phase plots, where thea _i's (i = 1, 2, 3) are the semi-diameters, and by the graphs ofa ₁,a ₂,a ₃, the volume, and the angular velocity as functions of time.The dynamical behaviour of the nonequilibrium ellipsoid depends on the deviation of the angular momentum from its equilibrium value; for larger deviations, the oscillations are more nonperiodic with larger amplitudes.An initially ellipsoidal configuration always remains ellipsoidal, but it cannot become spheroidal about its rotation axis, though it may become spheroidal instantaneously about either one of the other two principal axes.For an ellipsoid approaching axisymmetry about its axis of rotation, the angular velocity can suddenly increase by a large amount. Thus if an astrophysical object can be modelled by a nonequilibrium ellipsoid, it may occasionally undergo sudden large increases of angular velocity.     

三门峡盆地晚新生代沉积物磁性载体类型

对三门峡盆地晚新生代沉积岩样品进行岩石磁学研究,通过三轴饱和等温剩磁和剩磁矫顽力实验、交变退磁和热退磁实验及磁化率测定,发现黄土-古土壤、河湖相灰绿层和冲洪积层3种不同岩性的磁载体存在显著差异.即黄土-古土壤以磁铁矿为主,赤铁矿和磁赤铁矿很少;河湖相灰绿色沉积磁性矿物含量较低,主要为赤铁矿和磁铁矿,但磁铁矿较多,此外还有一些不稳定磁性矿物(如针铁矿、菱铁矿等);冲洪积物以磁铁矿和赤铁矿为主,磁铁矿相对较多.     

由折射波延滞时t_(оП)求相应反射波平均速度的一个簡单方法——圓法

本文指出,折射波t_(оΠ)和反射波t_0的比值与平均速度v和界面速度v_Γ的比值之间的关系是一个圆方程。利用反射波平均速度曲线以及由折射波法确定的t_(оΠ)和v_Γ,可以简便地求出反射波平均速度v。     

Analogue Correction Method of Errors by Combining Statistical and Dynamical Methods

Based on the atmospheric analogy principle, the inverse problem that the information of historical analogue data is utilized to estimate model errors is put forward and a method of analogue correction of errors (ACE) of model is developed in this paper. The ACE can combine effectively statistical and dynamical methods, and need not change the current numerical prediction models. The new method not only adequately utilizes dynamical achievements but also can reasonably absorb the information of a great many analogues in historical data in order to reduce model errors and improve forecast skill. Furthermore, the ACE may identify specific historical data for the solution of the inverse problem in terms of the particularity of current forecast. The qualitative analyses show that the ACE is theoretically equivalent to the principle of the previous analogue-dynamical model, but need not rebuild the complicated analogue-deviation model, so has better feasibility and operational foreground. Moreover, under the ideal situations, when numerical models or historical analogues are perfect, the forecast of the ACE would transform into the forecast of dynamical or statistical method, respectively.     

Cyanotoxin contamination of semiarid drinking water supply reservoirs

Changing global climatic conditions and the continuous eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems have led to increased frequency, duration and toxicity of cyanobacterial blooms worldwide. This makes the provision of time series information on cyanotoxins extremely crucial for effective monitoring and management of water resources. The objective of the present study was to investigate seasonal and annual changes in microcystins (MCs), cylindrospermopsins (CYNs), saxitoxins (STXs), neo-saxitoxin (neo-STX) and anatoxin-a (ATX-a) concentrations in 11 public water supply reservoirs in the semiarid region of Brazil, from 2004 to 2011. Per time, at least one cyanotoxin was present in all the investigated reservoirs. High levels of MCs, CYNs, STXs and Neo-STX were detected simultaneously in Carpina, Duas Unas, Ipojuca, and Jucazinho reservoirs. All the investigated reservoirs had significant concentrations of MCs. The highest levels of MCs were found in Carpina (303,300.0 ng g^?1) and Duas Unas (122,053.9 ng g^?1) reservoirs, while the lowest concentration of the hepatotoxins was recorded in Ipojuca (10.3 ng g^?1) reservoir. On the other hand, CYN was detected in four reservoirs, STXs and Neo-STX in ten reservoirs and ATX-a in two reservoirs. The first record of CYN in Carpina reservoir was obtained in 2006. In addition, Carpina reservoir had the highest concentration of STXs and Neo-STX in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. The high concentration of cyanotoxins observed in most samples obtained from semiarid reservoirs in Brazil demonstrates the need for regular monitoring and updated management programs.     

高原夏季风与南海夏季风关系及其影响

利用1983-2012年NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE、ECMWF再分析月平均资料,及中国160站月平均气温和降水量资料,利用统计学方法从大气环流、降水及温度等方面对高原夏季风与南海夏季风的关系进行了探讨。结果表明:高原夏季风与南海夏季风呈负相关关系,且大气环流及对流活动存在显著性差异。高原夏季风偏强(弱)同时南海夏季风偏弱(强)时,同期中国大部分地区的500hPa高度场偏低(高),南海地区500hPa高度场偏高(低);欧亚大陆低纬地区大部为偏东(西)风,南海地区处于反气旋(气旋)环流中。青藏高原主体地区上升运动较弱(强),南海中心区域上升运动均较弱(强),长江中下游地区降水增加(减少),华南降水减少(增加)。中国大部分地区气温较低(高),华南地区气温较高(低)。     

对地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合问题的探讨

概述了地球系统模式和综合评估模型在研究人类活动与气候变化问题上的优势和劣势,明确了将二者进行双向耦合的必要性,客观分析了综合评估模型耦合过程中存在的主要问题,同时系统总结了国际和国内解决耦合难点的主要方法和最新进展,最后分析和讨论了双向耦合模式的不确定性来源和解决方法,为我国进行地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合提供新思路和方法。     

A study on using pre‐bent steel strips as seismic energy‐dissipative devices

Buckling is usually conceived as an unstable structural behavior leading to lateral instability of axially loaded members, if not properly supported. However, a pre‐bent strip would become an excellent seismic energy‐dissipative device if it is deformed in a guided direction and range. Geometrically large lateral deformation of the steel strips in buckling leads to inelastic behavior of the material and dissipates energy as a consequence. The purpose of this study is to propose a new type of seismic damper in the form of braces based on pre‐bent steel strips. The nonlinear elastic stiffness of monotonously loaded pre‐bent strips in both compression and tension is derived. The energy‐dissipative characteristics of the proposed damping device are investigated via component tests under cyclic loads. Experimental results indicate that the force–displacement relationship of pre‐bent strips in cyclic loads exhibits mechanical characteristics of displacement‐dependent dampers. A series of seismic performance tests has been conducted further to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of using the proposed device as seismic dampers. Encouraging test results have been obtained, suggesting feasibility of the proposed device for earthquake‐resistant design. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.