Sub-Gaussian model of processes with heavy-tailed distributions applied to air permeabilities of fractured tuff

Earth and environmental variables are commonly taken to have multivariate Gaussian or heavy-tailed distributions in space and/or time. This is based on the observation that univariate frequency distributions of corresponding samples appear to be Gaussian or heavy-tailed. Of particular interest to us is the well-documented but heretofore little noticed and unexplained phenomenon that whereas the frequency distribution of log permeability data often seems to be Gaussian, that of corresponding increments tends to exhibit heavy tails. The tails decay as powers of ? $ \alpha $ where 1 <  $ \alpha $  < 2 is either constant or grows monotonically toward an asymptote with increasing separation distance or lag. We illustrate the latter phenomenon on 1-m scale log air permeabilities from pneumatic tests in 6 vertical and inclined boreholes completed in unsaturated fractured tuff near Superior, Arizona. We then show theoretically and demonstrate numerically, on synthetically generated signals, that whereas the case of constant $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy noise, a random field (or process) subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise, the case of variable $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy motion (tfLm), a random field subordinated to truncated fractional Brownian motion. Whereas the first type of signal is relatively regular and characterized by Lévy index $ \alpha $ , the second is highly irregular (punctuated by spurious spikes) and characterized by the asymptote of $ \alpha $ values associated with its increments. We describe a procedure to estimate the parameters of univariate distributions characterizing such signals and apply it to our log air permeability data. The latter are found to be consistent with a collection of samples from tfLm with $ \alpha $ slightly smaller than 2, which is easily confused with a Gaussian field (characterized by constant $ \alpha $  = 2). The irregular (spiky) nature of this signal is typical of observed fractured rock properties. We propose that distributions of earth and environmental variable be inferred jointly from measured values and their increments in a way that insures consistency between these two sets of data.     

Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions

Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.     

Stock Origins of Subadult and Adult Atlantic Sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus, in a Non-natal Estuary, Long Island Sound

The anadromous acipenserid Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus was listed in 2012 under the U.S. Endangered Species Act as having four endangered and one threatened distinct population segment (DPS) in American waters. Anthropogenic activities outside of natal estuaries, particularly bycatch, may hinder the abilities of some populations to rebuild. Most Atlantic sturgeon are residential for their first 2–6 years within their natal estuaries, whereas older subadults and adults may migrate to non-natal estuaries and coastal locations. Previous studies demonstrated that subadults and adults aggregate during summer at locations in Long Island Sound (LIS) and its tributary, the Connecticut River; however, the population origin of these fish is unknown. Because of its geographic proximity and relatively robust population, we hypothesized that the LIS and Connecticut River aggregations were almost solely derived from the Hudson River. We used microsatellite nuclear DNA analysis at 11 loci and mitochondrial DNA control region sequence analyses to estimate the relative contributions of nine Atlantic sturgeon populations and the five DPS to these aggregations using individual-based assignment tests and mixed-stock analysis. From 64 to 73 % of specimens from LIS were estimated to be of Hudson origin. Similarly, 66–76 % of specimens from the Connecticut River were of Hudson origin. However, moderate numbers of specimens were detected from distant spawning populations in the southeastern DPS and from two populations once thought to be extirpated or nearly so, the James River (6–7.3 %), and the Delaware River (7.6–12 %). Additionally, specimens were detected from all five DPS in both the LIS and Connecticut River collections. These results highlight the difficulty of evaluating the status of individual Atlantic sturgeon populations because of the propensity of subadults and adults to migrate for extended duration to distant sites where they may be vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances.     

Basal‐topographic control of stationary ponds on a continuously moving landslide

The Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado has been moving for at least the last few hundred years and has multiple ponds on its surface. We have studied eight ponds during 30 trips to the landslide between July 1998 and July 2007. During each trip, we have made observations on the variability in pond locations and water levels, taken ground‐based photographs to document pond water with respect to moving landslide material and vegetation, conducted Global Positioning System surveys of the elevations of water levels and mapped pond sediments on the landslide surface. Additionally, we have used stereo aerial photographs taken in October 1939, October 1940 and July 2000 to measure topographic profiles of the eight pond locations, as well as a longitudinal profile along the approximate centerline of the landslide, to examine topographic changes over a 60‐ to 61‐year period of time. Results from field observations, analyses of photographs, mapping and measurements indicate that all pond locations have remained spatially stationary for 60–300 years while landslide material moves through these locations. Water levels during the observation period were sensitive to changes in the local, spring‐fed, stream network, and to periodic filling of pond locations by sediment from floods, hyperconcentrated flows, mud flows and debris flows. For pond locations to remain stationary, the locations must mimic depressions along the basal surface of the landslide. The existence of such depressions indicates that the topography of the basal landslide surface is irregular. These results suggest that, for translational landslides that have moved distances larger than the dimensions of the largest basal topographic irregularities (about 200 m at Slumgullion), landslide surface morphology can be used as a guide to the morphology of the basal slip surface. Because basal slip surface morphology can affect landslide stability, kinematic models and stability analyses of translational landslides should attempt to incorporate irregular basal surface topography. Additional implications for moving landslides where basal topography controls surface morphology include the following: dateable sediments or organic material from basal layers of stationary ponds will yield ages that are younger than the date of landslide initiation, and it is probable that other landslide surface features such as faults, streams, springs and sinks are also controlled by basal topography. The longitudinal topographic profile indicated that the upper part of the Slumgullion landslide was depleted at a mean vertical lowering rate of 5.6 cm/yr between 1939 and 2000, while the toe advanced at an average rate of 1.5 m/yr during the same period. Therefore, during this 61‐year period, neither the depletion of material at the head of the landslide nor continued growth of the landslide toe has decreased the overall movement rate of the landslide. Continued depletion of the upper part of the landslide, and growth of the toe, should eventually result in stabilization of the landslide. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of secondary information in geostatistical target area identification

The identification and characterization of target areas at former bombing ranges is the first step in investigating these sites for residual unexploded ordnance. Traditionally, magnetometer surveys along transects are used in identifying areas with high densities of magnetic anomalies, which are likely former target areas. Combining magnetometer survey data with other data sources may reduce the level of survey data required for site characterization, increasing characterization efficiency. Here, several techniques for incorporating secondary information into kriging estimates of magnetic anomaly density are investigated for a former bombing range located near Pueblo, Colorado. In particular, kriging with external drift, collocated ordinary cokriging, and simple kriging with local means (SKLM) are used to incorporate information from a secondary variable. The secondary variable consists of a grid of crater density values derived from a topographic light detection and ranging (LIDAR) analysis. The craters, which are clearly identifiable in the LIDAR data, were generated through munitions use at the site and are therefore related to the target locations. The results from this study indicate that the inclusion of the secondary information in the kriging estimates does benefit target area characterization and provides a means of elucidating target area details from only limited magnetometer transect data. For the Pueblo site, the use of SKLM with the crater density as a secondary variable and only limited magnetometer transect data, provided results comparable to those obtained from using much larger magnetometer transect data sets.     

Office of Naval Research contributions to neural networks andsignal processing in oceanic engineering

The authors summarize many of the highlights and accomplishments of the Office of Naval Research's neural network basic research programs and share a bit of the historical perspective that serves as a source of pride in the world of Navy science and technology, namely, the long-term support and resulting payoff of Navy-sponsored research in neural networks. The significant problems that must be overcome before neural network applications will become widely available to the Navy community are surveyed     

Social justice in coastal erosion management: The temporal and spatial dimensions

Coastal erosion management is primarily based on economic considerations (cost-benefit analysis). From the perspective of social justice (as a particular expression of the wider concept of human rights), however, several arguments can be advanced regarding public intervention in coastal defence management when private property is threatened by coastal erosion. In this paper we examine these arguments at both the short-term local scale and the long-term large spatial scale and consider the merits of inclusion of a social justice dimension in coastal erosion management. The coast provides a range of resources that benefit society as a whole. Coastal residents and property owners face a direct financial loss from coastal erosion but the general public also stands to incur losses other than purely financial if it there is public intervention for the benefit of these property owners. The arguments for public intervention are strongest at the local and short-term scales but they weaken (and even reverse) at geographically larger and longer time scales. At larger scales, the costs to society increase as intergenerational equity, non-coastal residents, climate and sea level change, and the environment are considered. Because of the intensity of interest involved at the local level, we argue that the necessary hard decisions must be made nationally if a sustainable policy is to be adopted. Social justice considerations provide a potential improvement on the traditional economic cost/benefit-based decision-making process of coastal erosion management but they only contribute to sustainability if viewed at the national level.     

Pivotal principles for digital earth development in the twenty-first century

ABSTRACT

Reductionist thinking will no longer suffice to address contemporary, complex challenges that defy sectoral, national, or disciplinary boundaries. Furthermore, lessons learned from the past cannot be confidently used to predict outcomes or guide future actions. The authors propose that the confluence of a number of technology and social disruptors presents a pivotal moment in history to enable real time, accelerated, and integrated action that can adequately support a ‘future earth’ through transformational solutions. Building on more than a decade of dialogues hosted by the International Society for Digital Earth (ISDE), and evolving a briefing note presented to delegates of Pivotal 2015, the paper presents an emergent context for collectively addressing spatial information, sustainable development, and good governance through three guiding principles for enabling prosperous living in the twenty-first century. These are: (1) open data, (2) real-world context, and (3) informed visualization for decision support. The paper synthesizes an interdisciplinary dialogue to create a credible and positive future vision of collaborative and transparent action for the betterment of humanity and planet. It is intended that these Pivotal Principles can be used as an elegant framework for action toward the Digital Earth vision, across local, regional, and international communities and organizations.     

Identifying storm impacts on an embayed, high-energy coastline: examples from western Ireland

Large sections of the western Irish coast are characterised by a highly compartmentalised series of headland-embayment cells in which sand and gravel beaches are backed by large vegetated dune systems. Exposure to modally high-energy swell renders most of these beaches dissipative in character. A mesotidal range (c. 3.5–4.5 m) exists along much of the coast. Analysis of instrumental wind records from three locations permitted the identification of a variety of storm types and the construction of storm catalogues. Few individual storms were recorded at all three stations indicating a lack of regional consistency in storm record. Of the total storms recorded, only a small percentage are potentially damaging (onshore directed) and even fewer span a high tide and thus potentially induce a measurable morphological response at the coast.

Through a combination of historical records, meteorological records, field observations and wave modelling we attempt to assess the impact of storms. Quantifiable records of coastal morphology (maps, air photos and beach profiles) are few in number and do not generally record responses that may be definitely attributed to specific storms. Numerical wave simulations and observations at a variety of sites on the west Irish coast, however, provide insights into instantaneous and medium term (decadal) storm responses in such systems.

We argue that beaches and dunes that are attuned to modally high-energy regimes require extreme storms to cause significant morphological impact. The varying orientation of beaches, a spatially nonuniform storm catalogue and the need for a storm to occur at high water to produce measurable change, impart site-specific storm susceptibility to these embayments. Furthermore, we argue that long-period wave energy attenuation across dissipative shorefaces and beaches reduces coastal response to distant storms whereas short-period, locally generated wind waves are more likely to cause major dune and beach erosion as they arrive at the shoreline unrefracted.

This apparently variable response of beach and dune systems to storm forcing at a decadal scale over a coastline length of 200 km urges caution in generalising regarding regional-scale coastal responses to climatic change.