Flood and coastal erosion risk management policy evolution in Northern Ireland: “Incremental or leapfrogging?”

Climate change poses a significant challenge for the future of Northern Ireland’s coast due to impacts that include, inter alia, mean sea level rise of between 13 cm and 74 cm by 2050. Whilst flooding is regarded as a major hazard in the United Kingdom (UK), to date Northern Ireland’s experiences of coastal flooding have been infrequent and less severe compared to those in England and Wales. Similarly, coastal erosion has historically been, and remains, only a minor concern in Northern Ireland. Partly as a result of this, Government administrative arrangements for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) in Northern Ireland operate in the absence of any statutory provision for coastal erosion, as well as without formal or strategic shoreline management planning and any integrated flood and coastal erosion risk management policy. This paper provides a commentary on Northern Ireland’s approach to FCERM, comparing this with its UK counterparts, highlighting both congruence and divergence in policy evolution and development. It is noted that the recent EU Floods Directive has been a significant catalyst and that the current institutional landscape for FCERM is in flux.     

Sacred cows in coastal management: the need for a 'cheap and transitory' model

The participative, 'bottom-up' approaches of contemporary European ICZM (integrated coastal zone management) are ineffectual and unsustainable. The approach lacks the authority and resources to deliver ICZM and should be abandoned. A new model of ICZM in a predominantly sectoral administrative framework is presented. It requires that capacity be built in existing statutory authorities and in-house ICZM groups be established. Time-limited participatory projects would be used to gain information on conflicts and issues that transcend existing sectoral boundaries, but this information would be passed to the established statutory authorities for action. A sound statutory and legislative basis is the essential prerequisite for effective coastal management – not voluntary partnerships.     

Lagrangian coherent structures in the California Current System – sensitivities and limitations

We report on numerical experiments to test the sensitivity of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), found by identifying ridges of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE), to errors in two systems representing the California Current System (CCS). First, we consider a synthetic mesoscale eddy field generated from Fourier filtering satellite altimetry observations of the CCS. Second, we consider the full observational satellite altimetry field in the same region. LCS are found to be relatively insensitive to both sparse spatial and temporal resolution and to the velocity field interpolation method. Strongly attracting and repelling LCS are robust to perturbations of the velocity field of over 20% of the maximum regional velocity. Contours of the Okubo–Weiss (OW) parameter are found to be consistent with LCS in large mature eddies in the unperturbed systems. The OW parameter is unable to identify eddies at the uncertainty level expected for altimetry observations of the CCS. At this expected error level, the FTLE method is reliable for locating boundaries of large eddies and strong jets. Small LCS features such as lobes are not well resolved even at low error levels, suggesting that reliable determination of lobe dynamics from altimetry will be problematic.     

The angle-dependent redistribution functionsR III andR IV: Line absorption probability distribution functions and reemission coefficients

The line absorption probability distribution functions and the reemission coefficients are derived for the non-coherent scattering functionsR _III andR _IV. The appropriate line profile function forR _III is shown to be a simple Voigt function, while forR _IV, the line absorption probability distribution function is more complex involving a linear combination of two Voigt functions and another more complex probability distribution. The structure of the reemission coefficients forR _III andR _IV is then discussed.     

An iterative algorithm for interactive multiobjective programming

A new iterative algorithm for interactive multiobjective programming is proposed. The algorithm is based on the Lagrange multiplier technique of generating noninferior solutions, and it is shown to converge under certain conditions. It reduces a complex multiobjective problem into a sequence of two-objective problems which the decision maker can handle more easily. The number of two-objective problems with which the decision maker is confronted, as well as the total number of noninferior solutions that must be generated, increase more or less linearly with the number of objectives. Computational efficiency is further enhanced by avoiding the need for regression. The decision maker interacts with the model directly in the functional space, and he is not required to translate his judgment of relative worth into numbers. Due to the iterative nature of the algorithm, the decision maker can articulate his preferences in a progressive manner. Furthermore, he may modify his attitude at any stage of the computation, based on partial results, without adversely affecting the quality of the solution. An example problem previously solved by other methods, including the surrogate worth trade-off approach, is used to illustrate the new algorithm.     

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995–96 and 1996–97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.     

Material Geographies and Postcolonialism

While postcolonial studies have inspired new ideas, a new language and a new theoretical inflection for a wide range of teaching and research in human geography, there have been few sustained discussions about what might constitute a postcolonial geography. This paper attempts to deal with this absence by exploring the possibilities of material geographies of postcolonialism. It suggests that geographers are particularly well placed to respond to criticisms of postcolonialism as remaining overwhelmingly textual, cultural and/or historical in focus by contributing towards a productive engagement between postcolonialism and the material realities of global inequalities, and towards a revivified political and ethical project. It explores how particular tactics might inform postcolonial methodologies within geography and makes some tentative suggestions on what a postcolonial political praxis might look like.     

Non-uniqueness of inverse transmissivity field calibration and predictive transport modeling

Recent work with stochastic inverse modeling techniques has led to the development of efficient algorithms for the construction of transmissivity (T) fields conditioned to measurements of T and head. Small numbers of calibration targets and correlation between model parameters in these inverse solutions can lead to a relatively large region in parameter space that will produce a near optimal calibration of the T field to measured heads. Most applications of these inverse techniques have not considered the effects of non-unique calibration on subsequent predictions made with the T fields. Use of these T fields in predictive contaminant transport modeling must take into account the non-uniqueness of the T field calibration. A recently developed ‘predictive estimation’ technique is presented and employed to create T fields that are conditioned to observed heads and measured T values while maximizing the conservatism of the associated predicted advective travel time. Predictive estimation employs confidence and prediction intervals calculated simultaneously on the flow and transport models, respectively. In an example problem, the distribution of advective transport results created with the predictive estimation technique is compared to the distribution of results created under traditional T field optimization where model non-uniqueness is not considered. The predictive estimation technique produces results with significantly shorter travel times relative to traditional techniques while maintaining near optimal calibration. Additionally, predictive estimation produces more accurate estimates of the fastest travel times.