地震供能、储能与放能机制的研究

“双向应变结构”是孕育和发生地震可能的供能、储能与放能的一种机制。它既能缓慢地储存弹性势能与重力势能而孕育地震,又能突然快速地释放弹性势能与重力势能而发生地震。由于地震发生时孕震体是(原应变的)应变逆转的自破裂过程,因此当初始破裂发生后,在破裂的前沿区,地震剪切应力在原有应力集中的基础上,还会再次产生一个突然快速增强(使破裂加速)到快速减弱(使破裂减速到停止)的过程,即产生“应变逆转破裂效应”。这样,不仅会大大增加地震破裂前沿区的剪切应力,而且还会大大减小破裂中的阻力,可能使地震发生中的断层强度佯谬得到解释。“双向应变结构”破裂发生地震的具体物理机制,印证了震源体断层运动的复杂性：既产生了剪切错动的破裂运动,又产生了单向的拉张与单向的压缩运动,同时还产生了整体的膨胀与整体的压缩运动。     

Air-sea interaction studies at the station occupied by R/V Sirius

The transfer formulas are used to compute hourly values of sensible and latent heat exchanges for the period July 29 to July 31, 1974. Also, values of eddy shearing stress at the sea surface, Bowen's ratio and dissipation of kinetic energy are computed. The data used cover part of the GATE period for station 20 occupied by the Brazilian Naval Ship R/V Sirius in the Equatorial Atlantic (0730 N 4000 W). The variations in the computed values are studied in relation to rainfall and the synoptic situation.     

最佳子集多元线性回归模型在热带气旋风圈 变化预报中的应用

基于最佳路径(IBTrACS)数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的再分析(ERA-Interim)数据,建立了西北太平洋上(Western North Pacific,WNP)热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的七级风圈(R17)变化的最佳子集多元线性回归(bs-MLR)模型.首先根据2001～...     

Subsurface influence on SST in the tropical Indian Ocean: structure and interannual variability

Interannual variations of subsurface influence on SST in the Indian Ocean show strong seasonality. The subsurface influence on SST confines to the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) in boreal winter and spring; it is observed on both sides of the equator in boreal summer and fall. Interannual long Rossby waves are at the heart of this influence, and contribute significantly to the coupled climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Principal forcing mechanism for the generation of these interannual waves in the Indian Ocean and the relative influence of two dominant interannual signals in the tropics, namely El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are also discussed. Two distinct regions dominated by either of the above climate signals are identified. IOD dominates the forcing of the off-equatorial Rossby waves, north of 10°S, and the forcing comes mainly from the anomalous Ekman pumping associated with the IOD. However, after the demise of IOD activity by December, Rossby waves are dominantly forced by ENSO, particularly south of 10°S.It is found that the subsurface feedback in the northern flank of the southern Indian Ocean ridge region (north of 10°S) significantly influences the central east African rainfall in boreal fall. The Indian Ocean coupled process further holds considerable capability of predicting the east African rainfall by one season ahead. Decadal modulation of the subsurface influence is also noticed during the study period. The subsurface influence north of 10°S coherently varies with the IOD, while it varies coherently with the ENSO south of this latitude.     

Assessing the Comparability of Ammonium,Nitrate and Sulfate Concentrations Measured by Three Air Quality Monitoring Networks

Airborne fine particulate matter across the United States is monitored by different networks, the three prevalent ones presently being the Clean Air Status and Trend Network (CASTNet), the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment Network (IMPROVE) and the Speciation and Trend Network (STN). If combined, these three networks provide speciated fine particulate data at several hundred locations throughout the United States. Yet, differences in sampling protocols and samples handling may not allow their joint use. With these concerns in mind, the objective of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal comparability of the sulfate, nitrate and ammonium concentrations reported by each of these networks. One of the major differences between networks is the sampling frequency they adopted. While CASTNet measures pollution levels on seven-day integrated samples, STN and IMPROVE data pertain to 24-hour samples collected every three days. STN and IMPROVE data therefore exhibit considerably more short-term variability than their CASTNet counterpart. We show that, despite their apparent incongruity, averaging the data with a window size of four to six weeks is sufficient to remove the effects of differences in sampling frequency and duration and allow meaningful comparison of the signals reported by the three networks of concern. After averaging, all the sulfate and, to a lesser degree, ammonium concentrations reported are fairly similar. Nitrate concentrations, on the other hand, are still divergent. We speculate that this divergence originates from the different types of filters used to collect particulate nitrate. Finally, using a rotated principal component technique (RPCA), we determined the number and the geographical organization of the significant temporal modes of variation (clusters) detected by each network for the three pollutants of interest. For sulfate and ammonium, the clusters’ geographical boundaries established for each network and the modes of variations within each cluster seem to correspond. RPCA erformed on nitrate concentrations revealed that, for the CASTNet and IMPROVE networks, the modes of variation do not correspond to unified geographical regions but are found more sporadically. For STN, the clustered areas are unified and easily delineable. We conclude that the possibility of jointly using the data collected by CASTNet, IMPROVE and STN has to be weighed pollutant by pollutant. While sulfate and ammonium data show some potential for joint use, at this point, combining the nitrate data from these monitoring networks may not be a judicious choice.     

Analysis of gravity anomalies over an inclined fault with quadratic density function

An attempt is made to interpret the gravity anomalies over an inclined fault with variable density contrast. The decrease of density contrast with depth in sedimentary rocks is approximated by a quadratic function. The anomaly equation of an inclined fault is derived with the quadratic density function. The constantsa ₀,a ₁ anda ₂ of the quadratic density function can be found from the known density-depth values. A synthetic anomaly profile of the fault model is interpreted by the non-linear optimisation technique using the Marquardt algorithm. The distances are measured from an arbitrary reference point and thus the origin of the fault model is also treated as an unknown parameter. For the assumed values of the constantsa ₀,a ₁ anda ₂, the various parameters of the fault model are found by the non-linear optimisation technique. The convergence of the method is shown by plotting the values of the objective function, lamda, and the parameters of the fault model with respect to iteration number. The two parameters inclination and origin are found to be correlated. The same program is used to interpret the gravity anomalies with different density contrasts. Finally, the use of modelling with the quadratic density function is discussed.     

Estimation of periodicities in hydrologic data

Periodicites in hydrologic data are frequently estimated and studied. In some cases the periodic components are subtracted from the data to obtain the stochastic components. In other cases the physical reasons for the occurrence of these periodicities are investigated. Apart from the annual cycle in the hydrologic data, periods corresponding to the 11 year sunspot cycle, the Hale cycle and others have been detected.The conclusions from most of these studies depend on the reliability and robustness of the methods used to detect these periodicities. Several spectral analysis methods have been proposed to investigate periodicities in time series data. Several of these have been compared to each other. The methods by Siddiqui and Wang and by Damsleth and Spjotvoll, which are stepwise procedures of spectrum estimation, have not been evaluated.     

Characteristics of VHF radiowave scintillations over a solar cycle (1983–1993) at a low-latitude station: Waltair (17.7°N, 83.3°E)

The characteristics of VHF radiowave scintillations at 244 MHz (FLEETSAT) during a complete solar cycle (1983–93) at a low-latitude station, Waltair (17.7°N, 83.3°E), are presented. The occurrence of night-time scintillations shows equinoctial maxima and summer minima in all the epochs of solar activity, and follows the solar activity. The daytime scintillation occurrence is negatively correlated with the solar activity and shows maximum occurrence during the summer months in a period of low solar activity. The occurrence of night-time scintillations is inhibited during disturbed days of high solar activity and enhanced during low solar activity.