Identifying and analyzing the urban–rural differences of social vulnerability to natural hazards is imperative to ensure that urbanization develops in a way that lessens the impacts of disasters and generate building resilient livelihoods in China. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this study conducted an assessment of the social vulnerability index (SVI) by applying the projection pursuit cluster model. The temporal and spatial changes of social vulnerability in urban and rural areas were then examined during China’s rapid urbanization period. An index of urban–rural differences in social vulnerability (SVID) was derived, and the global and local Moran’s I of the SVID were calculated to assess the spatial variation and association between the urban and rural SVI. In order to fully determine the impacts of urbanization in relation to social vulnerability, a spatial autoregressive model and Bivariate Moran’s I between urbanization and SVI were both calculated. The urban and rural SVI both displayed a steadily decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, although the urban SVI was always larger than the rural SVI in the same year. In 17.5% of the prefectures, the rural SVI was larger than the urban SVI in 2000, but was smaller than the urban SVI in 2010. About 12.6% of the urban areas in the prefectures became less vulnerable than rural areas over the study period, while in more than 51.73% of the prefectures the urban–rural SVI gap decreased over the same period. The SVID values in all prefectures had a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters were apparent. Over time, social vulnerability to natural hazards at the prefecture-level displayed a gathering–scattering pattern across China. Though a regional variation of social vulnerability developed during China’s rapid urbanization, the overall trend was for a steady reduction in social vulnerability in both urban and rural areas.
The coal-forming characteristics,as well as the similarities and differences between epicontinental sea basins and continental marginal sea basins developed during different time periods,were analyzed in this study by adopting comparative analysis thoughts and methods.The results obtained in this study revealed that epicontinental basins and marginal sea basins are both characterized by the main development of thin coal seams or extremely thin coal seams.In addition,changes in sea levels were determined to be the main controlling factors for coal formation,and there were similarities in the continent-sea interactions and coal-forming sedimentary systems of the different basins.However,there were also significant differences observed in the sea level change events,basin basement structural characteristics,coal seam stability levels,accumulation and aggregation characteristics,and the migration patterns of coal-forming materials.For example,the marginal sea basins in the South China Sea were found to be characterized by strong tectonic activities,diversity and complexity.The basin structures showed complex patterns of depressions,uplifts and concave or sag uplifts,which tended to lead to greater complexity in the paleogeographic patterns of the coal formations.This had subsequently resulted in complex coal-forming processes and paleogeographic characteristics,in which the coal-forming zones displayed bead-like distributions,and the enrichment areas and centers were scattered.The practical significance of studying the similarities and differences of the coal-forming characteristics between epicontinental basins and marginal sea basins is that the results can potentially be used to guide the predictions of coal-measure coal seam distributions in South China Sea,as well as provide valuable guidance for future explorations of natural gas reservoirs related to coal measures in the South China Sea area. 相似文献
In the numerical simulation of groundwater flow, uncertainties often affect the precision of the simulation results. Stochastic and statistical approaches such as the Monte Carlo method, the Neumann expansion method and the Taylor series expansion, are commonly employed to estimate uncertainty in the final output. Based on the first-order interval perturbation method, a combination of the interval and perturbation methods is proposed as a viable alternative and compared to the well-known equal interval continuous sampling method (EICSM). The approach was realized using the GFModel (an unsaturated-saturated groundwater flow simulation model) program. This study exemplifies scenarios of three distinct interval parameters, namely, the hydraulic conductivities of six equal parts of the aquifer, their boundary head conditions, and several hydrogeological parameters (e.g. specific storativity and extraction rate of wells). The results show that the relative errors of deviation of the groundwater head extremums (RDGE) in the late stage of simulation are controlled within approximately ±5% when the changing rate of the hydrogeological parameter is no more than 0.2. From the viewpoint of the groundwater head extremums, the relative errors can be controlled within ±1.5%. The relative errors of the groundwater head variation are within approximately ±5% when the changing rate is no more than 0.2. The proposed method of this study is applicable to unsteady-state confined water flow systems.
Landslides - Landslide is a uniquely dynamic large-deformation process that can present serious threat to human lives and infrastructures. The natural soil properties often exhibit inherent spatial... 相似文献
