Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.     

太阳射电高时间分辨率观测中的抗干扰措施

本文针对太阳射电高时间分辨率观测研究中普遍关心的事件证认问题，分析了精细结构事件与干扰信号在“空域”和“频域”上的特征差异，在“１０ｃｍ波段高时间分辨率太阳强度纹”上，采取了抗干扰和识别干扰的技术措施，极大的抑制了雷达干扰，提高了事件的置信度。在缺乏不同地域精细结构同时性事件情况下，本文介绍的措施，对事件的自证认不失为一种有效的手段。     

Time of emergence of anthropogenic warming signals in the Northeast Asia assessed from multi-regional climate models

Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the background noise of natural climate variability, and can provide useful information for climate change impacts and adaptations. This study examines future ToEs for daily maximum and minimum temperatures over the Northeast Asia using five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations driven by single Global Climate Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. Noise is defined based on the interannual variability during the present-day period (1981-2010) and warming signals in the future years (2021-2100) are compared against the noise in order to identify ToEs. Results show that ToEs of annual mean temperatures occur between 2030s and 2040s in RCMs, which essentially follow those of the driving GCM. This represents the dominant influence of GCM boundary forcing on RCM results in this region. ToEs of seasonal temperatures exhibit larger ranges from 2030s to 2090s. The seasonality of ToE is found to be determined majorly by noise amplitudes. The earliest ToE appears in autumn when the noise is smallest while the latest ToE occurs in winter when the noise is largest. The RCP4.5 scenario exhibits later emergence years than the RCP8.5 scenario by 5-35 years. The significant delay in ToEs by taking the lower emission scenario provides an important implication for climate change mitigation. Daily minimum temperatures tend to have earlier emergence than daily maximum temperature but with low confidence. It is also found that noise thresholds can strongly affect ToE years, i.e. larger noise threshold induces later emergence, indicating the importance of noise estimation in the ToE assessment.     

Wave-induced pore pressure around a composite breakwater

The interaction between wave, seabed and marine structure is a vital issue in coastal engineering, as well as marine geotechnical engineering. However, most previous investigations have been focused on the wave forces acting on the structure from the aspect of hydrodynamics. In this study, we will examine the problem of wave-seabed-caisson interaction from the aspect of marine geotechnical engineering. Based on Biot's poro-elastic theory (Biot, M.A., 1941. General theory of three-dimensional consolidation. Journal of Applied Physics 12, 155–164), a two-dimensional finite element model is proposed to investigate the wave-induced soil response in the vicinity of a caisson. Based on the numerical model, the water wave driven pore pressure around a caisson will be examined through a parametric analysis.     

郴县新田岭钨矿床地质特征

郴县新田岭白钨矿床，是一个大型─超大型矿床。储量巨大的Ⅰ＿５、Ⅰ＿（３０）和Ⅱ＿（２３）号主矿体，皆赋存在燕山早期花岗岩与石磴子组灰岩接触带的凹陷部位，三个主矿体的钨金属量，占矿区总储量的９０％以上。矿床矿物成分、结构构造和围岩蚀变均较复杂，其中晚期复杂矽卡岩与钨矿化关系密切。本矿床的形成，受成矿岩体、有利的围岩和接触带及层间破碎带控制，矿床的成生，经历了两个成矿期５个成矿阶段。矿床成因属气化─高温热液矿床。     

A Physically Based Approach for Estimating Hydraulic Conductivity from HPT Pressure and Flowrate

The hydraulic profiling tool (HPT) is widely used to generate profiles of relative permeability vs. depth. In this work, prior numerical modeling results are used to develop a relationship between probe advance rate V (cm/s), probe diameter D (cm), water injection rate Q (mL/min), corrected pressure P_c (psi), and hydraulic conductivity K (feet/d) ((1)) where E is an empirically derived hydraulic efficiency factor. The relationship is validated by 23 HPT profiles that, after averaging K vertically, were similar to slug test results in adjoining monitoring wells. The best fit value of E for these profiles was 2.02. This equation provides a physically based approach for generating hydraulic conductivity profiles with HPT tooling.     

Prediction of maximum wave-induced liquefaction in porous seabed using multi-artificial neural network model

In the last few decades, considerable efforts have been devoted to the phenomenon of wave-induced liquefactions, because it is one of the most important factors for analysing the seabed and designing marine structures. Although numerous studies of wave-induced liquefaction have been carried out, comparatively little is known about the impact of liquefaction on marine structures. Furthermore, most previous researches have focused on complicated mathematical theories and some laboratory work. In the present study, a data dependent approach for the prediction of the wave-induced liquefaction depth in a porous seabed is proposed, based on a multi-artificial neural network (MANN) method. Numerical results indicate that the MANN model can provide an accurate prediction of the wave-induced maximum liquefaction depth with 10% of the original database. This study demonstrates the capacity of the proposed MANN model and provides coastal engineers with another effective tool to analyse the stability of the marine sediment.     

晋中市2000年3月27日大风天气过程分析

山西省晋中市2000年3月27日出现了8级以上的大风伴随强沙尘暴天气，我们认为这主要是由于西太平洋副热带高压边缘的西南急流与西西伯利亚平原直到新疆境内的高压脊前的偏北急流的发展，使得蒙古气旋异常东移南下，导致了该次大风天气的发生。