多积云参数化方案热带气旋路径集合预报试验

利用MM5模式采用5种积云参数化方案选项研究了2004～2006年共8个热带气旋路径的集合预报。结果表明,热带气旋路径预报对积云参数化方案的选取是敏感的,积云参数化方案之间优劣互补,而选择无积云参数化方案选项对热带气旋路径的预报有积极的贡献。采用3种路径集合预报方案研究的结果表明,集合方法对热带气旋路径预报有明显的改善,其中无积云参数化Grell、Betts—Miller和Kain—Fritsch4种积云参数化方案选项组合的集合预报效果最好,平均路径误差最小。     

1948～2004年全球越赤道气流气候变化

利用1948年1月～2004年12月逐月NCEP/NCAR的全球1000 hPa、850 hPa、700 hPa、600 hPa、500 hPa、400 hPa、300 hPa、200 hPa、150 hPa、100 hPa的10层经向格点风,计算了全球越赤道气流和年变化,分析了全球850 hPa越赤道气流通道的时、空变化特征。指出在研究的时间段内,全球850 hPa越赤道气流有明显的长期趋势变化和年代际变化。近57年,6～8月的45～50°E、5～9月的105～115°E、5～9月和5～11月的130～140°E、2～4月的20～25°E的越赤道气流有明显的加强,6～8月的50～35°W的越赤道气流减弱。夏季索马里的越赤道气流,平均每10年增强0.25 m/s,而130～140°E,5～9月的越赤道气流,平均每10年增强0.32 m/s。奇异谱分析表明,850 hPa越赤道气流的年代际变化和趋势变化的方差贡献达到35%～45%。年际变化的方差贡献不超过30%,还指出夏季太平洋的越赤道气流的强度变化与南方涛动有明显关系,弱南方涛动时,有强的越赤道气流。而索马里急流强度与北大西洋涛动有弱的正相关。     

1975年8月河南省特大暴雨雨强极值的重新估算

通过对云中气载液态水含量以及水汽和气载液态水之间的平衡方程的讨论,建立了改进的可降水量Ia公式。按照改进的公式,重新估算了1975年8月河南省特大暴雨7日20时雨强。结果表明,分别以遂平气象站记录的8 m/s和按物象估算的12 m/s地面风速为基础的改进的板桥水库附近8月7日20时雨强估算值Iae1=75.0 mm/h和Iae1=95.8 mm/h很接近实际的雨强极值Ioe=99.7 mm/h。     

Proterozoic copper deposits in NW Queensland,Australia: Sulfur isotopic data

Sulfur isotopic disequilibrium is commonly observed between associated pyrite and copper sulfides in NW Queensland. A sulfur isotopic study of copper mineralization in dolomites at Paradise Valley and arenites at Mammoth has allowed the significance of such disequilibrium to be evaluated. Copper mineralization at Paradise Valley is characterized by a greater enrichment in ³⁴S, with δ³⁴S values often greater than +30‰, for both copper sulfides and associated syngenetic/diagneetic pyrite. At Mammoth, copper sulfides have isotopic compositions (δ³⁴S=?15.9 to ?0.3‰) transitional between disseminated syngenetic/diagenetic pyrite (δ³⁴S=?5.7 to ?1.7‰) and epigenetic vein pyrite (δ³⁴S=?17.9 to ?7.1‰) suggesting progressive reaction and replacement of syngenetic/diagenetic pyrite by a copper-bearing mineralizing fluid under oxidizing conditions. The isotopic data, within the constraints imposed by geological and geochemical factors, support a model of reaction between copper-bearing mineralizing fluids and pre-existing syngenetic/diagenetic pyrite for both the carbonate- and arenite-hosted deposits.     

Fluid Inclusion Study and Opaque Mineral Assemblage at the Deep and Shallow Part of the Batu Hijau Porphyry Copper-gold Deposit, Sumbawa, Indonesia

The Batu Hijau deposit is the only porphyry type deposit in production in the Sunda‐Banda arc, Indonesia. This study discusses the reason for the localization of copper grade at the deep part of the deposit based on the observation of opaque mineral assemblage. In addition, the formation condition of quartz veins and opaque minerals is discussed on the basis of the fluid inclusion microthermometry. Samples were selected from drill holes SBD100, SBD168, SBD194, SBD254, and SBD257 to cover the wide vertical range. At the Batu Hijau deposit, quartz veins have been classified mainly into four types called A, B, C and D veins, and the A veins contain mainly bornite, often associated with digenite and chalcocite. In addition, magnetite occurs in A veins. However, at the deep part of the deposit, there are quartz veins associated with magnetite, but few copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite in quartz veins, as observed in SBD257. Quartz veins at depth in SBD257 have abundant magnetite and pyrite. Pyrite in quartz veins at depth in SBD257 mainly occur at the rim of magnetite grains or interstices between them. In quartz veins in SBD254, there are abundant copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite in spite of the depth. Bornite and chalcopyrite occur as inclusions in magnetite grains in quartz veins in SBD254. Pyrite which often occurs in low grade zone in quartz veins in SBD254 is also recognized at the rims of copper sulfides. This indicates that pyrite in SBD257 and SBD254 formed later than magnetite. On the other hand, blebs of bornite and chalcopyrite inclusions in magnetite grains, which are recognized in quartz veins in SBD168 at shallow high grade part, suggest that the hydrothermal fluid, from which magnetite was deposited also brought the copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite to the deep part of the Batu Hijau deposit. Therefore, it is concluded that initially the high grade ore zone extended to depth without localization. However due to the later overprinting hydrothermal activity, copper sulfides and magnetite were replaced or dissolved and pyrite was formed, resulting the low grade zone at the deep part of the deposit. Dissolution temperatures (Td) of halite obtained by from fluid inclusion microthermometry show significant differences between SBD168 and other drill holes. The high Td obtained in SBD168 may indicate larger volume of NaCl crystals in hydrothermal fluid at the time of entrapment of the fluid inclusions and formation of other opaque minerals such as magnetite and copper‐iron sulfides. It suggests that the ratio of vapor to brine is also higher at the shallow part of the deposit. The higher vapor to brine ratio may suggest a higher degree of boiling. Removal of vapor phase separated from brine during boiling increases the concentration of substances dissolved in the brine, and this will result in saturation, as evidenced by the salinity and NaCl saturation. The higher degree of boiling suggested by the higher vapor to brine ratio at shallow part may have increased the copper concentration in the brine that may have lead the saturation, resulted in the deposition of copper‐bearing minerals.     

山东东营凹陷渐新统东营组的天文地层研究

选定东营凹陷牛38、郝科1和利1等3口井东营组进行天文地层研究。以牛38井沙河街组一段顶界31.8Ma作为东营组底界年龄,得到3口井各段的年龄平均值为:东二段底28.406Ma,东一段底25.385Ma和顶界24.467Ma。东营组底界(31.829Ma)大致相当于"中国区域地层表"提出的32Ma的渐新统底年龄,但是与"国际地层表"提出的渐新世鲁培尔阶底界(33.9Ma)相差1.9Myr。东三段底界、顶界的平均年龄分别为31.829Ma、28.406Ma大致可与中国的乌兰布拉格阶或国际的鲁培尔阶中上部相当;东二段底界至东一段顶界的平均年龄大致相当于塔本布鲁克阶或夏特阶。根据东营组岩石地层与天文地层研究认为,在三角洲沉积过程中,东营组各段界线是穿时的,如东三与东二段界线的年龄相差可达1.4Myr。根据偏心率理论曲线和小波分析,夏特阶底界(28.4Ma)附近的变化可能与偏心率100ka左右理论周期的特殊变化有关。     

考虑渗透率变化的煤层气储层数值模拟及参数敏感性研究

煤层气开采过程中储层渗透率的变化对产气量影响较大,通过引入S＆D渗透率变化模型,建立了考虑渗透率变化的煤储层三维气水两相渗流数学模型,完成模型检验后应用所编制软件研究了煤储层参数、吸附参数及渗透率模型特征参数对开发效果的影响。结果表明,煤层气产量随着初始含气量、煤层有效厚度、裂缝渗透率和Langmuir压力的增大而增大,随储层原始压力、裂缝孔隙度和Langmuir体积的增大而减小,而解吸时间对产气量影响不大;裂缝渗透率随着杨氏模量和基质收缩/膨胀系数的增大而增大,随泊松比和裂缝压缩系数的增大而减小。引入S＆D模型后计算的累积产气量要比常规模型低1.3%,因此不可忽视煤层气产出过程中渗透率的变化。     

鲁西寒武系凝块石特征及其形成机制的探讨

鲁西地区寒武纪地层分布广泛、出露连续,中寒武世张夏组和晚寒武世炒米店组均有凝块石产出。本文通过对该地区凝块石的野外观察和镜下鉴定,认为形成凝块石的微生物主要为附枝菌,其次是葛万菌、肾球菌和放射状菌,根据枝杈的直径大小、枝杈的细胞状分割结构及结晶程度等,附枝菌又可细分为:泥晶粗枝杈状、泥晶分段枝杈状、泥晶细枝杈状、微晶管状枝杈状和亮晶粗枝杈状。相应的群落也可划分为:泥晶树枝状、单个房室状、簇球状和亮晶树枝状。凝块石的凝块为附枝菌等蓝细菌钙化体和周围粘结的碳酸盐微粒所组成的团块,其按形态可分为:斑状、网状和树枝状。根据上述的研究,本文认为形成凝块石的理想过程可以分为4个阶段:蓝细菌的捕捉和粘结作用、蓝细菌自身钙化作用、碳酸盐的原地沉淀和沉积后作用。     

Geology and petrology of the lava complex of Young Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka

Detailed geological and petrological-geochemical study of rocks of the lava complex of Young Shiveluch volcano made it possible to evaluate the lava volumes, the relative sequence in which the volcanic edifice was formed, and the minimum age of the onset of eruptive activity. The lavas of Young Shiveluch are predominantly magnesian andesites and basaltic andesites of a mildly potassic calc-alkaline series (SiO₂ = 55.0–63.5 wt %, Mg# = 55.5–68.9). Geologic relations and data on the mineralogy and geochemistry of rocks composing the lava complex led us to conclude that the magnesian andesites of Young Shiveluch volcano are of hybrid genesis and are a mixture of silicic derivatives and a highly magnesian magma that was periodically replenished in the shallow-depth magmatic chamber. The fractional crystallization of plagioclase and hornblende at the incomplete segregation of plagioclase crystals from the fractionating magmas resulted in adakitic geochemical parameters (Sr/Y = 50–71, Y < 18 ppm) of the most evolved rock varieties. Our results explain the genesis of the rock series of Young Shiveluch volcano without invoking a model of the melting of the subducting Pacific slab at its edge.     

Geochemistry of Brines from Salt Ore Deposits in Western Tarim Basin

In the geological evolution of the Tarim Basin, many transgressions and relictions happened. So there have been plentiful sources of salt. Moreover, because of uttermost drought, a lot of salt has been deposited. It is possible to find potash salt in this area. In our fieldwork, we have found salt and brine in western Tarim Basin. Based on a geological survey and the characteristics of sedimentary facies and paleogeography, this paper deals with the geochemical parameters and discusses the possibility of formation of potash salt in terms of the chemical analyses of samples collected from western Tarim Basin. Results of brine analysis lead to some conclusions: most of these salt brines have eluviated from very thick halite beds, mainly chloridetype salt and this kind of halite does not reach the stage of potash deposition in all aspects; WKSL (Wukeshalu) occupies a noticeable place, and we should attach importance to this district because there have been some indicators of the occurrence of potash deposits as viewed from the contents of Br and K. Finally, low Br contents are recognized in the Tarim Basin as a result of salt aggradation, and this point of view has been proved by the results of this experiment and the data available. It cannot depend upon the index of Br to judge the evolution stage of halite. We must look for other facies of potash except marine facies.