Effective stresses and shear failure pressure from in situ Biot's coefficient,Hejre Field,North Sea

We propose a combination of Biot's equations for effective stress and the expression for shear failure in a rock to obtain an expression for minimum pore pressure in a stable vertical well bore. We show that a Biot's coefficient calculated from logging data in the Hejre Field, North Sea, is significantly different from 1. The log‐derived Biot's coefficient is above 0.8 in the Shetland Chalk Group and in the Tyne Group, and 0.6–0.8 in the Heno Sandstone Formation. We show that the effective vertical and horizontal stresses obtained using the log‐derived Biot's coefficient result in a drilling window for a vertical well larger than if approximating Biot's coefficient by 1. The estimation of the Biot's coefficient is straightforward in formations with a stiff frame, whereas in formations such as shales, caution has to be taken. We discuss the consequence of assumptions made on the mineral composition of shales as unphysical results could be obtained when choosing inappropriate mineral moduli.     

Assessment of climate change impacts on the quantity and quality of a coastal catchment using a coupled groundwater–surface water model

The hydrology of coastal catchments is influenced by both sea level and climate. Hence, a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on coastal catchments is a challenging task. In the present study, a coupled groundwater–surface water model is forced by dynamically downscaled results from a general circulation model. The effects on water quantity and quality of a relatively large lake used for water supply are analyzed. Although stream inflow to the lake is predicted to decrease during summer, the storage capacity of the lake is found to provide a sufficient buffer to support sustainable water abstraction in the future. On the other hand, seawater intrusion into the stream is found to be a significant threat to the water quality of the lake, possibly limiting its use for water supply and impacting the aquatic environment. Additionally, the results indicate that the nutrient load to the lake and adjacent coastal waters is likely to increase significantly, which will increase eutrophication and have negative effects on the surface water ecology. The hydrological impact assessment is based on only one climate change projection; nevertheless, the range of changes generated by other climate models indicates that the predicted results are a plausible realization of climate change impacts. The problems identified here are expected to be relevant for many coastal regimes, where the hydrology is determined by the interaction between saline and fresh groundwater and surface water systems.     

Biofuel scenarios in a water perspective: The global blue and green water footprint of road transport in 2030

Concerns over energy security and climate change stimulate developments towards renewable energy. Transport is expected to switch from fossil fuel use to the use of fuel mixtures with a larger fraction of biofuels, e.g. bio-ethanol and biodiesel. Growing biomass for biofuels requires water, a scarce resource. Existing scenarios on freshwater use usually consider changes in food and livestock production, and industrial and domestic activities. This research assesses global water use changes related to increasing biofuel use for road transport in 2030 and evaluates the potential contribution to water scarcity. To investigate water demand changes related to a transition to biofuels in road transport, the study combines data from water footprint (WF) analyses with information from the IEA APS energy scenario for 2030. It includes first-generation biofuels, bio-ethanol from sugar cane, sugar beet, sweet sorghum, wheat and maize, and biodiesel from soybean, rapeseed, jatropha and oil palm. Under the IEA APS scenario, the global biofuel WF will increase more than tenfold in the period 2005–2030. The USA, China and Brazil together will contribute half of the global biofuel WF. In many countries, blue biofuel WFs significantly contribute to blue water scarcity. The research provides a first exploration of the potential contribution of transport biofuel use to blue water scarcity. In 2030, the global blue biofuel WF might have grown to 5.5% of the totally available blue water for humans, causing extra pressure on fresh water resources. When biofuel use continues to expand after 2030, countries should therefore consider the water factor when investigating the extent to which biofuels can satisfy future transport energy demand.     

Impacts of cloud and turbulence schemes on integrated water vapor: comparison between model predictions and GPS measurements

Summary Structures in atmospheric Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) have been studied for the three successive cyclones, Kerstin, Liane and Monika, which controlled the meteorological conditions in the Baltic Sea catchment region in the period from 28 August to 5 September 1995 (part of the PIDCAP observational campaign defined within BALTEX). Several model predictions of these cyclones have been performed with a regional atmospheric general circulation model (RACMO). The impact of two different versions of the model physics package (standard ECHAM4 and a revised version with modifications in the cloud and turbulence scheme) has been investigated. Model predicted IWV has been evaluated with GPS station data from several stations in Sweden and Finland. For the most strongly developed cyclone Monika, the revised scheme generates more pronounced IWV structures, with well defined bands of high and low values of IWV curving into the center of the cyclone. In particular, the shape of the minima are in better agreement with the GPS station data, and the consistency between two subsequent model forecasts is also larger with the revised physics package. For the weaker systems, Kerstin and Liane, results from both model versions are very similar. Received August 11, 2000 Revised February 13, 2001     

Movement of tidal watersheds in the Wadden Sea and its consequences on the morphological development

The Wadden Sea consists of a series of tidal lagoons which are connected to the North Sea by tidal inlets. Boundaries of each lagoon are the mainland coast, the barrier islands on both sides of the tidal inlet, and the tidal watersheds behind the two barrier islands. Behind each Wadden Island there is a tidal watershed separating two adjacent tidal lagoons. The locations of the tidal watersheds in the Wadden Sea are not fixed. Especially after a human interference in one of the tidal lagoons, a tidal watershed can move and thereby influence the distribution of area between the lagoons. This appears to be important for the morphological development in not only the basin in which the interference takes place, but also in the adjacent basins. This paper describes theoretical analyses and numerical modelling aimed at improving the insights into the location of the tidal watersheds, their movements, and the impact of the movements of tidal watersheds on the morphological development of a multi-basin system like the Wadden Sea.     

Source term balance in a severe storm in the Southern North Sea

This paper presents the results of a wave hindcast of a severe storm in the Southern North Sea to verify recently developed deep and shallow water source terms. The work was carried out in the framework of the ONR funded NOPP project (Tolman et al. 2013) in which deep and shallow water source terms were developed for use in third-generation wave prediction models. These deep water source terms for whitecapping, wind input and nonlinear interactions were developed, implemented and tested primarily in the WAVEWATCH III model, whereas shallow water source terms for depth-limited wave breaking and triad interactions were developed, implemented and tested primarily in the SWAN wave model. So far, the new deep-water source terms for whitecapping were not fully tested in shallow environments. Similarly, the shallow water source terms were not yet tested in large inter-mediate depth areas like the North Sea. As a first step in assessing the performance of these newly developed source terms, the source term balance and the effect of different physical settings on the prediction of wave heights and wave periods in the relatively shallow North Sea was analysed. The December 2013 storm was hindcast with a SWAN model implementation for the North Sea. Spectral wave boundary conditions were obtained from an Atlantic Ocean WAVEWATCH III model implementation and the model was driven by hourly CFSR wind fields. In the southern part of the North Sea, current and water level effects were included. The hindcast was performed with five different settings for whitecapping, viz. three Komen type whitecapping formulations, the saturation-based whitecapping by Van der Westhuysen et al. (2007) and the recently developed ST6 whitecapping as described by Zieger et al. (2015). Results of the wave hindcast were compared with buoy measurements at location K13 collected by the Dutch Ministry of Transport and Public Works. An analysis was made of the source term balance at three locations, the deep water location North Cormorant, the inter-mediate depth location K13 and at location Wielingen, a shallow water location close to the Dutch coast. The results indicate that at deep water the source terms for wind input, whitecapping and nonlinear four-wave interactions are of the same magnitude. At the inter-mediate depth location K13, bottom friction plays a significant role, whereas at the shallow water location Wielingen also depth-limited wave breaking becomes important.     

Earth System Mass Transport Mission (e.motion): A Concept for Future Earth Gravity Field Measurements from Space

In the last decade, satellite gravimetry has been revealed as a pioneering technique for mapping mass redistributions within the Earth system. This fact has allowed us to have an improved understanding of the dynamic processes that take place within and between the Earth’s various constituents. Results from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have revolutionized Earth system research and have established the necessity for future satellite gravity missions. In 2010, a comprehensive team of European and Canadian scientists and industrial partners proposed the e.motion (Earth system mass transport mission) concept to the European Space Agency. The proposal is based on two tandem satellites in a pendulum orbit configuration at an altitude of about 370 km, carrying a laser interferometer inter-satellite ranging instrument and improved accelerometers. In this paper, we review and discuss a wide range of mass signals related to the global water cycle and to solid Earth deformations that were outlined in the e.motion proposal. The technological and mission challenges that need to be addressed in order to detect these signals are emphasized within the context of the scientific return. This analysis presents a broad perspective on the value and need for future satellite gravimetry missions.     

Groundwater Recharge at Five Representative Sites in the Hebei Plain,China

Accurate estimates of groundwater recharge are essential for effective management of groundwater, especially when supplies are limited such as in many arid and semiarid areas. In the Hebei Plain, China, water shortage is increasingly restricting socioeconomic development, especially for agriculture, which heavily relies on groundwater. Human activities have greatly changed groundwater recharge there during the past several decades. To obtain better estimates of recharge in the plain, five representative sites were selected to investigate the effects of irrigation and water table depth on groundwater recharge. At each site, a one‐dimensional unsaturated flow model (Hydrus‐1D) was calibrated using field data of climate, soil moisture, and groundwater levels. A sensitivity analysis of evapotranspirative fluxes and various soil hydraulic parameters confirmed that fine‐textured surface soils generally generate less recharge. Model calculations showed that recharge on average is about 175 mm/year in the piedmont plain to the west, and 133 mm/year in both the central alluvial and lacustrine plains and the coastal plain to the east. Temporal and spatial variations in the recharge processes were significant in response to rainfall and irrigation. Peak time‐lags between infiltration (rainfall plus irrigation) and recharge were 18 to 35 days in the piedmont plain and 3 to 5 days in the central alluvial and lacustrine plains, but only 1 or 2 days in the coastal plain. This implies that different time‐lags corresponding to different water table depths must be considered when estimating or modeling groundwater recharge.