The Influence of Community Size and Location on Different Dimensions of Vulnerability: a case study of Australian coastal communities

ABSTRACT

Coastal communities are part of the Australian identity but little is known about their characteristics and their long-term prosperity prospects. Increased migration to coastal areas and increased exposure to extreme climatic events indicates a need for social and economic data to inform socio-ecological systems planning. Here, we undertake a geo-spatial analysis to develop a typology of Australian coastal communities and assess relative vulnerability to climate-driven environmental change for a range of social and economic indicators. The aim of this study is to understand how the vulnerability of Australian coastal communities varies with geographic location or community size, and in comparison to other community types. Results show that both the population size and location of a coastal community matter and that coastal communities overall are more vulnerable on some socio-economic dimensions to climate-driven environmental change than their rural equivalents. However, results also demonstrate that the smallest coastal communities are strong in some important aspects of the human, social and financial domains, putting them in a good position to deal with some changes. Scale-appropriate and context-specific social policies are needed to address identified socio-economic vulnerabilities, supported by a range of formal and informal institutional structures, such as strategies to improve education and female workforce participation, and encourage participation in volunteering to increase human and social capital.     

Identification of calanco,a badland landform in the northern Apennines,Italy

Calanco (plural, calanchi) is a term widely used in the northern Apennines, Italy, to define a type of badland formed in clayey bedrock. However, no precise geomorphological definition of calanco has been established and a variety of map symbols are used to indicate the presence of calanco landforms. With the aim of developing an improved approach to identifying calanchi, a group of experienced surveyors identified 24 catchments with calanco characteristics among 67 catchments located between Bologna and Faenza in the northern Apennines. The morphology of each catchment was classified using traditional quantitative geomorphic approaches including fieldwork, map interpretation, hypsometric curve construction and computation of the annual sediment yield. Consideration of the parameters produced by these approaches indicated that none was capable of representing the presence of calanchi unequivocally and the basins were grouped into five classes on the basis of number and type of calanco criteria that they met. A characteristic of calanchi that is evident on topographic maps is crenulation of the contour lines and in this study a new topographic parameter was developed to represent the degree of contour crenulation. This parameter, LO/LF, is defined as the ratio of the actual length of a contour line (LO) to the length of the same line smoothed by an algorithm based on a moving average (LF). Calculated values of LO/LF ranged from 1·05 to 1·38. To test whether high values of the contour crenulation parameter were associated with calanchi, LO/LF values were added to other criteria for the five classes of catchment. Class 1 catchments, consisting of 14 of the 24 calanchi catchments identified in the field, displayed all of the criteria defining calanchi, and were characterized by the highest values of LO/LF (mean value 1·27 ± 0·15). It is proposed, therefore, that the contour crenulation ratio (LO/LF) may be useful in identifying the calanco landform. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phenological Changes of Blooming Diatoms Promoted by Compound Bottom-Up and Top-Down Controls

Understanding phytoplankton species-specific responses to multiple biotic and abiotic stressors is fundamental to assess phenological and structural shifts at the community level. Here, we present the case of Thalassiosira curviseriata, a winter-blooming diatom in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina, which displayed a noticeable decrease in the past decade along with conspicuous changes in phenology. We compiled interannual field data to assess compound effects of environmental variations and grazing by the invasive copepod Eurytemora americana. The two species displayed opposite trends over the period examined. The diatom decreased toward the last years, mainly during the winters, and remained relatively constant over the other seasons, while the copepod increased toward the last years, with an occurrence restricted to winter and early spring. A quantitative assessment by structural equation modeling unveiled that the observed long-term trend of T. curviseriata resulted from the synergistic effects of environmental changes driven by water temperature, salinity, and grazing. These results suggest that the shift in the abundance distribution of T. curviseriata toward higher annual ranges of temperature and salinity—as displayed by habitat association curves—constitutes a functional response to avoid seasonal overlapping with its predator in late winters. The observed changes in the timing and abundance of the blooming species resulted in conspicuous shifts in primary production pulses. Our results provide insights on mechanistic processes shaping the phenology and structure of phytoplankton blooms.     

An archeomagnetic analysis of burnt grain bin floors from ca. 1200 to 1250 AD Iron-Age South Africa

Recognition of the rapid decay of Earth’s magnetic field over the last 150 years, chronicled in magnetic observatory and satellite data, highlights the need for a higher resolution record of geomagnetic field behavior over the past millennium. Such a record would help us better understand the nature of the recent dramatic changes. A limitation of the existing database is undersampling of the Southern Hemisphere. Here we investigate the potential of obtaining archeomagnetic data from Iron-Age burnt grain bins from southern Africa. These structures preserve oriented material that can record both paleodirections and paleointensity information. Directional data collected from three sites (ca. 1200–1250 AD) fall 9–22° to the East of predictions. Thellier–Coe and Shaw paleointensity results differ from model values by ～15%. The consistency of results between the three sites suggests that further investigations of these materials with different ages could markedly improve the current spatial distribution of the archeomagnetic database.     

Dispersion in the Yucatan coastal zone: Implications for red tide events

The mechanisms governing dispersion processes in the northern Yucatan coast are investigated using a barotropic numerical model of coastal circulation, which includes wind-generated and large scale currents (i.e. Yucatan Current). This work provides the foundations for studying the dispersion of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the area. Modelling experiments include effects of climatic wind (from long term monthly mean NCEP reanalysis), short term wind events (from in situ point measurements), and Yucatan Current (YC) characteristics. Its magnitude was approximated from published reports, and its trajectory from geostrophic current fields derived from altimeter data. These provided a range of real and climatic conditions to study the routes in which phytoplankton blooms may travel. The 2-D model results show that a synthetic and conservative bloom seeded in the Cabo Catoche (CC) region (where it usually grows), moves along the coast to the west up to San Felipe (SF), where it can either move offshore, or carry on travelling westwards. The transport to the west up to SF is greatly influenced by the trajectory, intensity and proximity of the YC jet to the peninsula, which enhances the westward circulation in the Yucatan Shelf. Numerical experiments show that patch dispersion is consistently to the west even under the influence of northerly winds. When the YC flows westward towards the Campeche Bank, momentum transfer caused by the YC jet dominates the dispersion processes over wind stress. On the other hand, when it flows closer to Cuba, the local processes (i.e. wind and bathymetry) become dominant. Coastal orientation and the Coriolis force may be responsible for driving the patch offshore at SF if external forcing decreases.     

Crustal structure and tectonic setting of the south central Andes from gravimetric analysis

Based on terrestrial gravity data, in this paper we prepared a map of Bouguer anomalies, which was filtered to separate shallow and deep gravity sources. Based on a density model and gravimetric inversion techniques, the discontinuous crust-mantle boundary and the top of crystalline basement were modeled. Subsequently, the equivalent elastic thickness (Te) was evaluated, considering information from the crust-mantle discontinuity and topographic load, finding high Te values in the eastern Andean foothills and west of the Velasco range. These results are consistent with the positive isostatic and residual Bouguer anomaly values, which suggest the presence of high-density rocks in the mid-to upper crust. In addition, petrographic and geochemical analysis conducted in surface outcrops suggest a mantle origin.     

The simulation of Arctic clouds and their influence on the winter surface temperature in present-day climate in the CMIP3 multi-model dataset

We investigate the influence of clouds on the surface energy budget and surface temperature in the sea-ice covered parts of the ocean north of the Arctic circle in present-day climate in nine global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3, CMIP3. Monthly mean simulated surface skin temperature, radiative fluxes and cloud parameters are evaluated using retrievals from the extended AVHHR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) product. We analyzed the annual cycle but the main focus is on the winter, in which large parts of the region experience polar night. We find a smaller across-model spread as well as better agreement with observations during summer than during winter in the simulated climatological annual cycles of total cloudiness and surface skin temperature. The across-model spread in liquid and ice water paths is substantial during the whole year. These results qualitatively agree with earlier studies on the present-day Arctic climate in GCMs. The climatological ensemble model mean annual cycle of surface cloud forcing shows good agreement with observations in summer. However, during winter the insulating effect of clouds tends to be underestimated in models. During winter, most of the models as well as the observations show higher monthly mean total cloud fractions, associated with larger positive surface cloud forcing. Most models also show good correlation between the surface cloud forcing and the vertically integrated ice and liquid cloud condensate. The wintertime ensemble model mean total cloud fraction (69%) shows excellent agreement with observations. The across-model spread in the winter mean cloudiness is substantial (36?C94%) however and several models significantly underestimate the cloud liquid water content. If the two models not showing any relationship between cloudiness and surface cloud forcing are disregarded, a tentative across-model relation exists, in such a way that models that simulate large winter mean cloudiness also show larger surface cloud forcing. Even though the across-model spread in wintertime surface cloud forcing is large, no clear relation to the surface temperature is found. This indicates that other processes, not explicitly cloud related, are important for the simulated across-model spread in surface temperature.     

Ostreopsis cf. ovata bloom in the northern Adriatic Sea during summer 2009: ecology, molecular characterization and toxin profile

Intense blooms of the benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have occurred in the northern Adriatic Sea since 2006. These blooms are associated with noxious effects on human health and with the mortality of benthic organisms because of the production of palytoxin-like compounds. The O. cf. ovata bloom and its relationships with nutrient concentrations at two stations on the Conero Riviera (northern Adriatic Sea) were investigated in the summer of 2009. O. cf. ovata developed from August to November, with the highest abundances in September (1.3 × 10⁶ cells g⁻¹ fw corresponding to 63.8 × 10³ cells cm⁻²). The presence of the single O. cf. ovata genotype was confirmed by a PCR assay. Bloom developed when the seawater temperature was decreasing. Nutrient concentrations did not seem to affect bloom dynamics. Toxin analysis performed by high resolution liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry revealed a high total toxin content (up to 75 pg cell⁻¹), including putative palytoxin and all the ovatoxins known so far.