Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

An Acetic Acid‐Based Extraction Protocol for the Recovery of U,Th and Pb from Calcium Carbonates for U‐(Th)‐Pb Geochronology

A new method for the simultaneous recovery of U, Th and Pb from ca. 0.5 g calcium carbonate samples for the purpose of U‐(Th)‐Pb geochronometry is presented. The protocol employs ion‐exchange chromatography. Standard anion exchange resin (AG 1‐X8 100–200 mesh) was used as the static phase, and 90% acetic acid was used as the mobile phase to elute the unwanted matrix components; dilute nitric acid was used to elute the U, Th and Pb. Blanks of 1.8 pg Th, 6.4 pg Pb and 8.4 pg U were obtained. The protocol was evaluated by determining the isotopic composition of U‐Th‐Pb separates obtained from an in‐house reference material (prepared from a natural speleothem) by MC‐ICP‐MS. An independently dated speleothem was also reanalysed. Based on these tests, the extraction protocol had an acceptable blank and produced a Pb separate sufficiently free of matrix‐induced instrumental biases to be appropriate for U‐Th‐Pb chronology.     

In-phase anomalies in Beryllium-10 production and palaeomagnetic field behaviour during the Iceland Basin geomagnetic excursion

Increases in the production rate of cosmogenic radionuclides associated with geomagnetic excursions have been used as global tie-points for correlation between records of past climate from marine and terrestrial archives. We have investigated the relative timing of variations in ¹⁰Be production rate and the corresponding palaeomagnetic signal during one of the largest Pleistocene excursions, the Iceland Basin (IB) event (ca. 190 kyr), as recorded in two marine sediment cores (ODP Sites 1063 and 983) with high sedimentation rates. Variations in ¹⁰Be production rate during the excursion were estimated by use of ²³⁰Th_xs normalized ¹⁰Be deposition rates and authigenic ¹⁰Be/⁹Be. Resulting ¹⁰Be production rates are compared with high-resolution records of geomagnetic field behaviour acquired from the same discrete samples. We find no evidence for a significant lock-in depth of the palaeomagnetic signal in these high sedimentation-rate cores. Apparent lock-in depths in other cores may sometimes be the result of lower sample resolution. Our results also indicate that the period of increased ¹⁰Be production during the IB excursion lasted longer and, most likely, started earlier than the corresponding palaeomagnetic anomaly, in accordance with previous observations that polarity transitions occur after periods of reduced geomagnetic field intensity prior to the transition. The lack of evidence in this study for a significant palaeomagnetic lock-in depth suggests that there is no systematic offset between the ¹⁰Be signal and palaeomagnetic anomalies associated with excursions and reversals, with significance for the global correlation of climate records from different archives.     

Patterns of Nd and Sr isotopic ratios produced by magmatic and post-magmatic processes in the Shiant Isles Main Sill, Scotland

The Shiant Isles Main Sill of the British Tertiary Igneous Province is a classic example of a differentiated, alkaline basic sill. Four separate intrusions, each emplaced internally in rapid succession, form a 165-m-thick sill hosted by Lower Jurassic sedimentary rocks. Extensive Nd and Sr isotopic studies were conducted on samples from a vertical section through the sill where the relationships of samples to one another are well defined. The results illuminate patterns of modification of isotopic ratios and clarify the petrogenesis (magma sources, crustal contamination), magmatic processes (bulk mixing, interstitial liquid mixing), and post-magmatic alteration (hydrothermal effects on Sr and Nd). Overall, the whole-rock initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios range from ∼0.7037 to 0.7061 while initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios vary from ∼0.51243 to 0.51286 (ɛ_Nd∼−0.7 to +5.7) – values that contrast markedly with those of the country rock. Acid leaching (HCl) of the whole-rock samples that removes analcime indicates that most of the scatter in the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr is caused by the ubiquitous sub-solidus, aqueous alteration during which more-radiogenic Sr was introduced into the sill, especially along the margins, and also reveals magmatic isotopic ratios. In contrast, Nd was immobile during fluid interaction so that the sill ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios were not affected, even <1 m from the country-rock contact. Using leached rock values, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios are inversely correlated from magmatic processes. Magmas with two distinct isotopic compositions were involved: a more primitive one with ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ∼0.51285 and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ∼0.7035 that produced the first two intrusions and a more evolved one (with 0.51252 and 0.7048) that produced the third intrusion. Mixing of the two magmas was very limited, restricted to near contacts between units, and apparently occurred by interstitial melt migration. The more evolved crinanitic magma was probably produced from a batch of the more primitive picritic melt by a small degree of crustal contamination and crystal fractionation during a short crustal residence prior to ascent and emplacement. Received: 20 December 1999 / Accepted: 5 May 2000     

RARE EARTH ELEMENT ABUNDANCES IN SEPARATED PHASES OF MAYO BELWA,AN ENSTATITE ACHONDRITE

Separated fractions from the Mayo Belwa aubrite have been analysed for the rare earth elements (REE). The data show no ytterbium anomalies but the feldspar and magnetic fractions show complementary europium anomalies. The separated phases together account for the total REE abundances in the bulk meteorite which are about 0.5 times chondritic. The REE content of the feldspar is greater than that of the bulk meteorite. The partition coefficients for the REE between feldspar and orthopyroxene are about 10 times (in favour of the feldspar) those of the nearest equivalent terrestrial feldspar/orthopyroxene pairs, implying that the distribution of the REE which would result from equilibrium co-crystallisation from a single liquid has been disturbed by a later event. This occurred more recently than 4.33 b.y. ago and resulted in a redistribution of the REE between the feldspar and a REE enriched residue. However, the REE patterns of the minerals are very like those of terrestrial equivalents and appear to be the result of igneous cumulus processes on a parent body rather than condensation of dust from a nebular gas.     

An NMR study of structure and ordering in synthetic K2MgSi5O12, a leucite analogue

Phases with the composition K₂MgSi₅O₁₂, belonging to the leucite structure group were synthesised under dry and hydrothermal conditions and studied using ²⁹Si NMR. The ²⁹Si spectrum for the dry-crystallised material (which is cubic) consists of a single broad line, suggesting a high degree of disorder. The hydrothermally crystallised material (which is probably monoclinic, with a distorted leucite lattice) has a ²⁹Si spectrum which consists of ten lines of equal intensity, two of which have small chemical shift anisotropies and are therefore assigned to Q⁴(4Si) sites. These data have been interpreted in terms of a structure with 12 distinct tetrahedral sites over which 2 Mg atoms and 10 Si atoms are fully ordered. A 2-dimensional COSY spectrum shows correlations between some Q⁴(3Si) silicon atoms and two other Q⁴(3Si) silicon atoms. This fully constrains the topology of the unit cell. Two schemes of Si/Mg ordering over the unit cell can give good fits to the COSY spectrum. Using the tetrahedral (T) site notation defined for natural tetragonal leucite, the first of these arrangements involves Mg and Q⁴(4Si) silicon atoms each occupying one T1-type site and one T3-type site, and Q⁴(3Si) silicons occupying the remaining sites, i.e. four T2-type sites, two T1-type sites and two T3-type sites. In the second arrangement, the T2-type sites are occupied by Mg atoms and Q⁴(4Si) silicon atoms and all the T1-and T3-type sites are occupied by Q⁴(3Si) atoms.     

The structural environments of trace elements in dry and hydrous silicate glasses; a manganese and strontium K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopic study

The structural environments of Mn²⁺ and Sr²⁺ at concentrations of 0.2–0.8 wt% in dry and hydrous silicate glasses have been studied using X-ray absorption spectroscopy (EXAFS and XANES). The environment of Mn in hydrous silica glasses containing 4.5 and 6.0 wt% H₂O appears to be close to an undistorted octahedral site, whereas Mn in other compositions, both dry and hydrous, occupies either a distribution of octahedral and tetrahedral sites, or distorted, non-centrosymmetric sites. The fraction of non-centrosymmetric sites (including tetrahedral) or the average degree of distortion of the sites decreases with both increasing dissolved water concentration and number of non-bridging oxygens in the glass. For Sr the changes as a function of polymerisation and water concentration are less clear, but it appears that the average Sr-O distances are shorter than in crystalline silicates and decrease further with decreasing polymerisation. The structural data obtained in this study are not readily integrated with previous partitioning data for Mn, suggesting that changes in the first-shell coordination geometry of Mn do not play a direct role in controlling the melt compositional dependence of trace element partition coefficients. It is tentatively suggested that distortions of the framework resulting from the incorporation of Mn (i.e. a second shell effect) control the partitioning behaviour.     

Economic aspects of pad construction costs on heap leach projects

Summary Pad construction costs can affect the overall economics of heap leach projects. Costs for single- and double-lined pads, using various designs, are listed for a typical small and large project. Double-lined pads are now frequently required by regulatory agencies. Unless such designs significantly reduce the risk of site-specific contamination, the extra costs cannot be justified from an economical viewpoint. Specific attention is given to the short project life (typically five years) of heap leach projects. A few numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the overall impact of these costs on economic parameters.     

An early warning system for wave-driven coastal flooding at Imperial Beach,CA

Natural Hazards - Waves overtop berms and seawalls along the shoreline of Imperial Beach (IB), CA when energetic winter swell and high tide coincide. These intermittent, few-hour long events flood...     

Tropical Pacific – mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times

Terrestrial and marine late Holocene proxy records from the western and central US suggest that climate between approximately 500 and 1350 a.d. was marked by generally arid conditions with episodes of severe centennial-scale drought, elevated incidence of wild fire, cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the California coast, and dune mobilization in the western plains. This Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was followed by wetter conditions and warming coastal SSTs during the transition into the “Little Ice Age” (LIA). Proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean show contemporaneous changes indicating cool central and eastern tropical Pacific SSTs during the MCA, with warmer than modern temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific. This pattern of mid-latitude and tropical climate conditions is consistent with the hypothesis that the dry MCA in the western US resulted (at least in part) from tropically forced changes in winter NH circulation patterns like those associated with modern La Niña episodes. We examine this hypothesis, and present other analyses showing that the imprint of MCA climate change appears in proxy records from widely distributed regions around the planet, and in many cases is consistent with a cool medieval tropical Pacific. One example, explored with numerical model results, is the suggestion of increased westerlies and warmer winter temperatures over northern Europe during medieval times. An analog technique for the combined use of proxy records and model results, Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction (PSR), is introduced.