Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets

Many papers have shown that bioenergy and land-use are potentially important elements in a strategy to limit anthropogenic climate change. But, significant expansion of bioenergy production can have a large terrestrial footprint. In this paper, we test the implications for land use, the global energy system, emissions and mitigation costs of meeting a specific climate target, using a single fossil fuel and industrial sector policy instrument, but with five alternative bioenergy and land-use policy architectures. These scenarios are illustrative in nature, and designed to explore trade-offs. We find that the policies we examined have differing effects on the different segments of the economy. Comprehensive land policies can reduce land-use change emissions, increasing allowable emissions in the energy system, but have implications for the cost of food. Bioenergy penalties and constraints, on the other hand, have little effect on food prices, but result in less bioenergy and thus can increase mitigation costs and energy prices.     

Contrasting stratified plutons exposed in tilt blocks, Eldorado Mountains, Colorado River Rift, NV, USA

Roof-to-floor exposures of mid-Miocene plutons in tilt blocks south of Las Vegas, NV, reveal distinct but strongly contrasting magma chamber statigraphy. The Searchlight and Aztec Wash plutons are well-exposed, stratified intrusions that show a similar broad range in composition from 45–75 wt.% SiO₂. Homogeneous granites that comprise about one-third of each intrusion are virtually identical in texture and elemental and isotopic chemistry. Mafic rocks that are present in both plutons document basaltic input into felsic magma chambers. Isotopic compositions suggest that mafic magmas were derived from enriched lithospheric mantle with minor crustal contamination, whereas more felsic rocks are hybrids that are either juvenile basaltic magma+crustal melt mixtures or products of anatexis of ancient crust+young (Mesozoic or Miocene?) mafic intraplate.

Despite general similarities, the two plutons differ markedly in dimensions and lithologic stratigraphy. The Searchlight pluton is much thicker (10 vs. 3 km) and has thick quartz monzonite zones at its roof and floor that are absent in the Aztec Wash pluton. Isotopic and elemental data from Searchlight pluton suggest that the upper and lower zones are cogenetic with the granite; we interpret the finer grained, slightly more felsic upper zone to represent a downward migrating solidification front and the lower zone to be cumulate. In contrast, the upper part of the Aztec Wash pluton is granite, and a heterogeneous, mafic-rich injection zone with distinct isotopic chemistry forms the lower two-thirds of the intrusion. Similar mafic rocks are relatively sparse in Searchlight pluton and do not appear to have played a central role in construction of the pluton. Large felsic and composite dikes that attest to repeated recharging and intrachamber magma transfer are common in the Aztec Wash pluton but absent in the Searchlight pluton. Thus, although both intrusions were filled by similar magmas and both developed internal stratification, the two intrusions evolved very differently. The distinctions may be attributable to scale and resulting longevity and/or to subtle differences in tectonic setting.     

The structure of galaxy clusters in various cosmologies

We investigate the internal structure of clusters of galaxies in high-resolution N -body simulations of four different cosmologies. There is a higher proportion of disordered clusters in critical-density than in low-density universes, although the structure of relaxed clusters is very similar in each case. Crude measures of substructure, such as the shift in the position of the centre-of-mass as the density threshold is varied, can distinguish the two in a sample of just 20 or so clusters; it is harder to differentiate between clusters in open and flat models with the same density parameter. Most clusters are in a quasi-steady state within the virial radius and are well-described by the density profile of Navarro, Frenk & White.     

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO₂e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO₂e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak near-term action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable.