Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.     

The organic geochemistry of ancient sediments—Part II

Several shales and oils ranging in age from 3 million to 2·7 billion years have been investigated for their hydrocarbon content using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry as primary analytical tools. From the Soudan Shale from Minnesota (2·7 × 10⁹yr) the C₁₈, C₁₉, C₂₀ and C₂₁ isoprenoid-alkanes were obtained. The Antrim shale from Michigan (about 265 × 10⁶ yr) yielded the C₁₆, C₁₈, C₁₉, C₂₀ and C₂₁ isoprenoids, as well as a C₁₆ iso-alkane and the C₁₈ and C₁₉ cyclohexyl n-alkanes. The San Joaquin Oil (30 × 10⁶ yr) and the Abbott Rock Oil (3 × 10⁶ yr) contained the C₁₆, C₁₈, C₁₉, C₂₀ and the C₁₈, C₁₉, C₂₀ and C₂₁ isoprenoids respectively. In addition, a series of iso-alkanes (C₁₆−C₁₈), anteiso-alkanes (C₁₆−C₁₈) and n-alkylcyclohexanes (C₁₆−C₁₉) as well as a C₂₁ isoprenoid were obtained from the Nonesuch Seep Oil (1 × 10⁹ yr). This analysis provides a comprehensive picture of the types of biogenic hydrocarbons found in oils and shales of widely differing ages, and in particular, the finding of isoprenoid alkanes in the Soudan Shale furnishes evidence for life processes at that period of geological time.     

Zircon from historic eruptions in Iceland: reconstructing storage and evolution of silicic magmas

Zoning patterns, U-Th disequilibria ages, and elemental compositions of zircon from eruptions of Askja (1875 AD), Hekla (1158 AD), ?r?faj?kull (1362 AD) and Torfaj?kull (1477 AD, 871 AD, 3100 BP, 7500 BP) provide insights into the complex, extended, histories of silicic magmatic systems in Iceland. Zircon compositions, which are correlated with proximity to the main axial rift, are distinct from those of mid-ocean ridge environments and fall at the low-Hf edge of the range of continental zircon. Morphology, zoning patterns, compositions, and U-Th ages all indicate growth and storage in subvolcanic silicic mushes or recently solidified rock at temperatures above the solidus but lower than that of the erupting magma. The eruptive products were likely ascending magmas that entrained a zircon ??cargo?? that formed thousands to tens of thousands of years prior to the eruptions.     

Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm−2 without negative emissions from bioenergy AND CO2 capture and storage?

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm^?2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO₂-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper.     

Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets

Many papers have shown that bioenergy and land-use are potentially important elements in a strategy to limit anthropogenic climate change. But, significant expansion of bioenergy production can have a large terrestrial footprint. In this paper, we test the implications for land use, the global energy system, emissions and mitigation costs of meeting a specific climate target, using a single fossil fuel and industrial sector policy instrument, but with five alternative bioenergy and land-use policy architectures. These scenarios are illustrative in nature, and designed to explore trade-offs. We find that the policies we examined have differing effects on the different segments of the economy. Comprehensive land policies can reduce land-use change emissions, increasing allowable emissions in the energy system, but have implications for the cost of food. Bioenergy penalties and constraints, on the other hand, have little effect on food prices, but result in less bioenergy and thus can increase mitigation costs and energy prices.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113000856

Sulphide inclusions, which represent melts trapped in the minerals of magmatic rocks and xenoliths, provide important clues to the behaviour of immiscible sulphide liquids during the evolution of magmas and the formation of NieCueFe deposits. We describe sulphide inclusions from unique ultramafic clots within mafic xenoliths, from the mafic xenoliths themselves, and from the three silica-rich host plutons in Tongling, China. For the first time, we are able to propose a general framework model for the evolution of sulphide melts during the evolution of mafic to felsic magmas from the upper mantle to the upper crust. The model improves our understanding of the sulphide melt evolution in upper mantle to upper crust magmas, and provides insight into the formation of stratabound skarn-type FeeCu polymetallic deposits associated with felsic magmatism, thus promising to play an important role during prospecting for such deposits.     

The utility and risk of local ecological knowledge in developing stakeholder driven fisheries management: The Foveaux Strait dredge oyster fishery,New Zealand

Local ecological knowledge (LEK) has been recognised as an important source of information for resource management in data-poor fisheries. Our case study of the Foveaux Strait dredge oyster fishery in New Zealand shows LEK can also make a significant contribution to the management of data-rich fisheries, but highlights the importance of appropriate data collection design and interpretation and presentation of LEK. We formalise a structure for interpreting LEK, illustrate the importance of design by comparing two LEK studies, and discuss how the inclusion of LEK into the fisheries plan process has provided unexpected benefits for better management of the fishery.