In certain field conditions such as offshore projects under wave loads or embankments under traffic loads, both the vertical and horizontal stresses are variable. However, previous investigations rarely considered the variation in horizontal stress. To better understand the characteristics of natural saturated soft clay, a series of monotonic and cyclic triaxial tests with a K0-consolidation state were carried out under a variable confining pressure (VCP) stress path. The development of axial strain, pore water pressure and effective stress path is analysed. The results show that with the increase in η (the ratio of the variation in the mean effective principal stress to that of the deviatoric stress), the undrained shear strength (qf) decreases continuously. The pore water pressure generation is slightly improved under a stress path with increasing confining pressure. Based on the test results, a unified formula was established to predict the pore water pressure under VCP stress paths. The unique p–q–e relationship of normally consolidated clay in monotonic VCP triaxial tests was also demonstrated. Under VCP stress paths, the amplitude of the pore pressure increases, and the effective stress path tilts more sharply to the right. Moreover, a unified formula was established that can provide a good reference for predicting effective stress paths under cyclic VCP triaxial tests.
More and more rainstorms and other extreme weather events occur in the context of global warming, which may increase the risks of landslides. In this paper, changes of landslides in the 21 st century of China under the high emission scenario RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway) are projected by using a statistical landslide forecasting model and the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical landslide model is based on an improved landslide susceptibility map of China and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold. First, it is driven by observed rainfall and RegCM4.0 rainfall in 1980–99, and it can reproduce the spatial distribution of landslides in China pretty well.Then, it is used to forecast the landslide changes over China in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results consistently reveal that landslides will increase significantly in most areas of China, especially in the southeastern, northeastern, and western parts of Northwest China. The change pattern at the end of the 21 st century is generally consistent with that in the middle of the 21 st century, but with larger increment and magnitude. In terms of the probability,the proportion of grid points that are very likely and extremely likely to experience landslides will also increase. 相似文献