Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.     

南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系

通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。     

森林沼泽景观区中大比例尺化探找矿工作方法的研究--记大梁金矿的发现

大梁金矿是通过森林沼泽景观区开展1：50000和1：25000地球化学测量及综合地质工作而发现的,证明采用的森林沼泽景观中大比例尺化探方法是行之有效的.     

漳州市耕地资源安全与持续利用

漳州市自然条件优越,是福建省的“粮仓”,其耕地资源安全问题意义重大.本文根据1949～2003年的统计数据,分析漳州市耕地资源安全存在的问题,探讨其形成机制,并在此基础上提出保障耕地安全的调控对策.     

试论新课程下地理教材的创造性使用

教学改革是课程改革的主阵地,教材改革是突破口.教师在教材处理时,必须冲破教材的束缚,根据学生情况和教学实际,创造性地使用教材.     

Impacts of land use changes on groundwater resources in the Heihe River Basin

Land use and land cover changes have a great impact on the regional hydrological process. Based on three periods of remote sensing data from the 1960s and the long-term observed data of groundwater from the 1980s, the impacts of land use changes on the groundwater system in the middle reach of Heihe River Basin in recent three decades are analyzed by the perspective of groundwater recharge and discharge system. The results indicate that with the different intensities of land use changes, the impacts on the groundwater recharge were 2.602×108 m3/a in the former 15 years (1969-1985) and 0.218×108 m3/a in the latter 15 years (1986-2000), and the impacts on the groundwater discharge were 2.035×108 m3/a and 4.91×108 m3/a respectively. When the groundwater exploitation was in a reasonable range less than 3.0×108 m3/a, the land use changes could control the changes of regional groundwater resources. Influenced by the land use changes and the large-scale exploitation in the recent decade, the groundwater resources present apparently regional differences in Zhangye region. Realizing the impact of land use changes on groundwater system and the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of regional groundwater resources would be very important for reasonably utilizing and managing water and soil resources.     

The variation of sediments organic carbon content in Chongming east tidal flat during Scirpus mariqueter growing stage

The investigations on the organic carbon (OC) of core sediments were carried out in Chongming east tidal flat (CM) during Scirpus mariqueter growing stage (from April to December 2004) in Yangtze Estuary. The Yangtze River annually transports a runoff discharge of 30,000 m3/s, carrying about 480 million tons of sediments to the estuarine and coastal area, which formed a great OC pool. In the sampling spots, seven quadrats of 50 cm × 50 cm and five sediments cores of 20 cm deep (40 cm deep in December) were randomly established in order to collect vegetations and core sediments samples during the low tide each month except November. After pretreatment, the core sediments were sieved and their OC contents were measured according to the potassium dichromate method. The results show that the higher surface sediment OC content in summer comes from allochthonous terrigenous particle settlements on the Chongming east middle tidal flat S. mariqueter zone. In autumn and winter, the decomposing of the defoliated S. mariqueter increases the surface sediments OC content. Settling velocity, sediment temperature and S. mariqueter growth are the main factors that can control the sediment carbon content. Summer is the "carbon losing" period of the tidal flat sediments, while from September, it changes into the "carbon accumulating" period of sediment OC pool because of the decomposing of dead S. mariqueter community in the sediments. From this alternation of "carbon losing" period and "carbon accumulating" period, we conclude that carbon in the OC pool of the middle tidal flat S. mariqueter zone sediments mainly comes from the atmospheric carbon rooted by S. mariqueter photosynthesis.     

沙坡头没蒿和柠条叶片δ13C 和 N 含量的季节变化特征

通过对腾格里沙漠东南缘沙坡头人工固沙区油蒿和柠条叶片稳定碳同位素分辨率（△）和N 含量的测定，研究了不同种植方式下油蒿和柠条叶片△ 和 N 含量的季节变化及其关系。结果表明：在不同种植方式下，两种植物的△ 与 N 含量在不同月份之间均存在显著差异。油蒿叶片 △ 极显著高于柠条的：在不同种植方式下，油蒿单种下 △ 显著高于混种，柠条则反之。 油蒿叶片 N 含量极显著低于柠条的：不同种植方式下柠条叶片 N 含量无显著差异，而单种油蒿叶片 N 含量则显著低于混种。在 △ 与 N 含量的关系中，柠条叶片 △ 与 N 在两种生境、单种和混种下均极显著正相关，雨明柠条叶片 N 含量可以作为其 △ 与 N 含量的季节变化及其关系在不同微生境有所差异。     

珠江口盆地白云凹陷新生代构造演化动力学

白云凹陷构造演化史的研究对在白云凹陷开展油气勘探和深水沉积研究具有重要的意义。通过对断裂与沉积结构平面和剖面特点的分析,结合岩浆活动特点,文中提出白云凹陷是一个复式地堑,推测这种结构特点与凹陷下地壳的强烈韧性减薄和颈缩变形有关,表现为热岩石圈的伸展。其发育机制推测与白云凹陷位于构造转换带上有关,特殊的构造位置使白云凹陷成为强烈构造变形区,岩石圈地壳强烈减薄,伴随伸展过程和地幔上涌,脆性地壳或上地幔中部分熔融物质的出现导致岩石圈强度的急剧降低,在区域伸展应力场下以韧性流变方式减薄。岩浆在构造转换带下聚集并发育主岩浆房,由于白云凹陷南北边缘没有发育正断裂系统,岩浆主要沿垂直伸展的方向运移,因此在珠琼运动一幕和二幕南南东向伸展应力作用下,岩浆向白云凹陷的东部和西部运移至北西向基底深大断裂处,那里由于北西向断裂表现为左行张剪性质而成为压力较低的地区,从而成为岩浆上涌和侵位的地方。在岩浆聚集的地区,活动岩浆体附近的脆性变形被分散的韧性变形所取代,因此在凹陷的东北和西南两个角上,发育了张性和张剪性小断裂群,由于热岩石圈弹性较差,白云凹陷长期持续沉降。白云凹陷的断裂活动和沉积演化史还受到南海海盆扩张活动的影响。