云南地区地壳介质各向异性——快剪切波偏振特性

通过对云南遥测地震台网2000年1月1日——2003年12月31日4年资料的分析, 使用剪切波分裂SAM综合分析方法,获得了云南地区10个数字地震台站的快剪切波偏振结果. 结果表明, 云南地区大部分台站的快剪切波偏振优势方向主要为近N——S或NNW方向; 位于活动断裂上的台站的快剪切波偏振优势方向与活动断裂的走向一致;与GPS主压应变方向一致,与区域主压应力方向基本一致;少数台站的快剪切波偏振较为复杂,或与活动断裂的走向及GPS主压应变方向不一致. 这样的台站总是位于几个断裂的交会处,反映了复杂的断裂背景和复杂的应力分布特征. 快剪切波偏振优势方向代表了原地最大主压应力方向,受到区域应力场和断裂分布等多种因素的控制.      

Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in eastern China

The soil water index (SWI) from satellite remote sensing and the observational soil moisture from agricultural meteorological stations in eastern China are used to retrieve soil moisture. The analysis of correlation coefficient (CORR), root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and bias (BIAS) shows that the retrieved soil moisture is convincible and close to the observation. The method can overcome the difficulties in soil moisture observation on a large scale and the retrieved soil moisture may reflect the distribution of the real soil moisture objectively. The retrieved soil moisture is used as an initial scheme to replace initial conditions of soil moisture (NCEP) in the model MM5V3 to simulate the heavy rainfall in 1998. Three heavy rainfall processes during 13–14 June, 18–22 June, and 21–26 July 1998 in the Yangtze River valley are analyzed. The first two processes show that the intensity and location of simulated precipitation from SWI are better than those from NCEP and closer to the observed values. The simulated heavy rainfall for 21–26 July shows that the update of soil moisture initial conditions can improve the model’s performance. The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall may explain that the stronger rainfall intensity for SWI in the Yangtze River valley is the result of the greater simulated soil moisture from SWI prior to the heavy rainfall date than that from NCEP, and leads to the decline of temperature in the corresponding area in the heavy rainfall days. Detailed analysis of the heavy rainfall on 13–14 June shows that both land-atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation were responsible for the heavy rainfall, and it shows how the SWI simulation improves the simulation. The development of mesoscale systems plays an important role in the simulation regarding the change of initial soil moisture for SWI.     

利用光变曲线估计猎鹰九号火箭末级的旋转状态研究

光度观测是地基观测空间目标的主要手段之一,利用光度信息能够估计空间目标的相关特征信息.为了更好地了解空间目标的旋转状态,选取具有代表性的猎鹰九号火箭末级作为研究对象,由其光变信息研究旋转状态.首先利用云南天文台1.2 m光学望远镜获取猎鹰九号火箭末级的光度数据,再对目标星等进行斜距归一化,得到目标光变信息并分析目标星等...     

Satellite image analysis using crowdsourcing data for collaborative mapping: current and opportunities

ABSTRACT

Researchers are continually finding new applications of satellite images because of the growing number of high-resolution images with wide spatial coverage. However, the cost of these images is sometimes high, and their temporal resolution is relatively coarse. Crowdsourcing is an increasingly common source of data that takes advantage of local stakeholder knowledge and that provides a higher frequency of data. The complementarity of these two data sources suggests there is great potential for mutually beneficial integration. Unfortunately, there are still important gaps in crowdsourced satellite image analysis by means of crowdsourcing in areas such as land cover classification and emergency management. In this paper, we summarize recent efforts, and discuss the challenges and prospects of satellite image analysis for geospatial applications using crowdsourcing. Crowdsourcing can be used to improve satellite image analysis and satellite images can be used to organize crowdsourced efforts for collaborative mapping.     

基于自动探测方法的南海北部涡致海表温度锋面的特征研究

南海北部具有丰富的温度锋面和中尺度涡,它们调节着局地的热量和能量平衡。本文利用卫星海洋高度异常和海表温度数据,并基于自动探测方法,探究了2007年至2017年南海北部中尺度涡边缘的海表温度锋面（涡致锋面）特征。反气旋/气旋边缘出现锋面的概率可达20%。气旋涡在各个方向上出现锋面的概率比较均匀,反气旋涡的东北部和西南部出现锋面的概率大于西北部和东南部。中尺度涡致锋面的数量有明显的季节变化,而涡动能未表现出明显的季节变化。中尺度涡致锋区的总涡动能是中尺度涡内动能的3倍,并且反气旋涡致锋面的总涡动能明显强于气旋涡致锋面的总涡动能。中尺度涡致锋面的数量和涡动能的年际变化与厄尔尼诺南方涛动指数没有明显的相关性。本研究也讨论了中尺度涡致锋面的可能机制,但是中尺度涡对海表温度锋的贡献需要进一步定量研究。     

浙江省人口健康脆弱性评估及影响因素分析

运用集对分析法从敏感性和应对性2个方面对浙江省11个地市的人口健康脆弱性进行评估。研究表明：① 从敏感性和应对性2个维度对城市人口健康脆弱性进行评估的方法具有一定可靠性,但在突发大型流行性病毒感染疫情的情境下仍需进一步完善;② 各地市脆弱性指数排名与敏感性指数保持较高一致性,而与应对性指数则表现出异质性和随机性,认为降低敏感性是降低城市人口健康脆弱性指数的关键;③ 城市人口健康脆弱性评价还应该增加城市对大型突发公共卫生事件的敏感性和应对能力的考量,相应的评估方法和模型仍有待进一步研究。     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风区的西北边缘,对气候变化敏感,是古气候演化和古环境变迁研究的理想场所。全新世气温回暖期,气候整体稳定但存在暖湿冷干的次级波动,不同类型沉积相组成的地层序列记录了全新世千年、百年尺度的气候不稳定性。对毛乌素沙地不同沉积序列的研究表明:(1)毛乌素沙地东南缘的沙漠/黄土边界带DLT、NB剖面粒度及Rb/Sr比值可作为气候变化的代用指标。>63 μm砂含量增加,Rb/Sr比值降低,揭示东亚冬季风增强,风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候干冷;反之,东亚夏季风增强,降水增多,风化成壤程度加大,气候暖湿。(2)毛乌素沙地东南缘沙漠/黄土边界带及低洼沟谷区年代概率密度函数的分析显示,全新世早期~8\^5 ka BP风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候表现为干冷;全新世中期8\^5 ka~3\^0 ka BP地势较高处古土壤广泛发育,地势低洼处发育湖沼相/泥炭层,但在6.0 ka BP左右存在气候转冷过程;全新世晚期3\^0 ka BP以来气候波动频繁。(3)毛乌素沙地气候变化与北大西洋冰筏冷事件、董哥洞石笋、季风边缘区湖泊、东部沙地等记录具有可对比性和相对一致性,反映出全新世千年和百年尺度上的气候变化主要受全球变化的影响,这对预测和模拟未来气候变化具有借鉴意义。     

游客-环境互动视角下旅游者目的地环境恢复性效应

日常生活环境和旅游目的地环境都可以为个体提供恢复的机会,不同环境的属性特征导致不同程度的恢复。为了探究环境类型与恢复性效应之间的关系及停留时间的调节作用,文章采用问卷调查方式,利用配对样本t检验和混合设计方差分析相结合的方法,探讨游客在不同环境中的恢复性效应,并对这一现象提供心理上的解释。结果表明：1）恢复体验的4个维度（放松体验、心理脱离、掌握体验、控制体验）在旅游目的地环境中的得分均高于日常生活环境。2）掌握和控制体验维度在城市旅游目的地中的变化程度高于乡村旅游目的地,两种类型目的地的放松和心理脱离维度差异较小。3）随着在目的地停留时间的延长,乡村旅游目的地放松体验和心理脱离维度变化程度高于城市旅游目的地,两种类型目的地环境恢复性效应会相互靠近。因此,游客的环境恢复性效应不仅受到环境和目的地类型的影响,同时还与游客的适应程度有关,且受到其停留时间的调节作用。     

象山港潮波响应和变形研究 Ⅱ.象山港潮波数值研究

通过象山港水域的潮波运动数值模拟,分析了象山港M4分潮的生成和增长机制．结果说明,潮波传播中的非线性底摩擦效应是M4分潮生成和增长的主要控制因子,M4分潮在湾内的共振现象也起着重要的放大作用二平流效应在绝大部分区域中抑制了M4分潮的发展,只有在佛渡水道中一些岛屿周围极小区域内对M4分潮有增强作用．潮滩在湾内对M4分潮的影响极其微弱．