Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches

This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity.     

Quantifying bank storage of variably saturated aquifers

Numerical simulations were conducted to quantify bank storage in a variably saturated, homogenous, and anisotropic aquifer abutting a stream during rising stream stage. Seepage faces and bank slopes ranging from 1/3 to 100/3 were simulated. The initial conditions were assumed steady-state flow with water draining toward the stream. Then, the stream level rose at a constant rate to the specified elevation of the water table given by the landward boundary condition and stayed there until the system reached a new steady state. This represents a highly simplified version of a real world hydrograph. For the specific examples considered, the following conclusions can be made. The volume of surface water entering the bank increased with the rate of stream level rise, became negligible when the rate of rise was slow, and approached a positive constant when the rate was large. Also, the volume decreased with the dimensionless parameter M (the product of the anisotropy ratio and the square of the domain's aspect ratio). When M was large (>10), bank storage was small because most pore space was initially saturated with ground water due to the presence of a significant seepage face. When M was small, the seepage face became insignificant and capillarity began to play a role. The weaker the capillary effect, the easier for surface water to enter the bank. The effect of the capillary forces on the volume of surface water entering the bank was significant and could not be neglected.     

Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2^a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837–845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634–647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15–30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius].     

The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows

Abstract

The term “environmental flows” is now widely used to reflect the hydrological regime required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems, and the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on them. The definition suggests a central role for ecohydrological science to help determine a required flow regime for a target ecosystem condition. Indeed, many countries have established laws and policies to implement environmental flows with the expectation that science can deliver the answers. This article provides an overview of recent developments and applications of environmental flows on six continents to explore the changing role of ecohydrological sciences, recognizing its limitations and the emerging needs of society, water resource managers and policy makers. Science has responded with new methods to link hydrology to ecosystem status, but these have also raised fundamental questions that go beyond ecohydrology, such as who decides on the target condition of the ecosystem? Some environmental flow methods are based on the natural flow paradigm, which assumes the desired regime is the natural “unmodified” condition. However, this may be unrealistic where flow regimes have been altered for many centuries and are likely to change with future climate change. Ecosystems are dynamic, so the adoption of environmental flows needs to have a similar dynamic basis. Furthermore, methodological developments have been made in two directions: first, broad-scale hydrological analysis of flow regimes (assuming ecological relevance of hydrograph components) and, second, analysis of ecological impacts of more than one stressor (e.g. flow, morphology, water quality). All methods retain a degree of uncertainty, which translates into risks, and raises questions regarding trust between scientists and the public. Communication between scientists, social scientists, practitioners, policy makers and the public is thus becoming as important as the quality of the science.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Acreman, M.C., Overton, I.C., King, J., Wood, P., Cowx, I.G., Dunbar, M.J., Kendy, E., and Young, W., 2014. The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 433–450     

Evaluation of sampling devices for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface microlayer coastal waters

The sea surface microlayer (SML) may play an important role on the transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment. In order to evaluate the appropriateness of a number of sampling devices for the analysis of 14 parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (3-5 aromatic rings), marine SML waters were sampled using a glass plate, a rotating drum/roller, a metal screen and a surface slick sampler. The underlying waters were also sampled for the determination of the corresponding enrichment factors (EF = [C](microlayer)/[C](underlying water)). The EFs were phase dependent, ranging from 1 to 3 for the dissolved phase and between 4 and 7 for the particulate phase. In order to better assess the performance of the different sampling methods, in terms of phase partitioning, the truly dissolved and colloidal phases were also estimated. Generally, no significant differences were found for the enrichment factors provided by the different methods, due to the observed large variability in concentrations that can be attributed to small-scale coastal processes. However, the metal screen is recommended as the most efficient sampling method for the study of PAHs taking into account the amount of water collected versus time.     

Specific features of ice conditions in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait in the winter season of 2005/06

Peculiarities of the ice situation in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait during the cold winter of 2005/06 are considered using a set of satellite images in the visible range, accumulated at the Southern Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (in Kerch). The ice conditions of the water area over the last years are examined and compared to the climatic data.     

新疆西天山达巴特铜矿床地质特征和成矿时代研究

本文通过对西天山地区比较典型的达巴特斑岩铜钼矿床矿石中辉钼矿Re-Os的直接定年研究,结合区域地质演化和其他年代学资料,探讨了西天山赛里木和博罗科努地区斑岩铜多金属成矿带的成矿地球动力学背景和成矿机制。结果显示达巴特矿床中辉钼矿Re-Os年龄为301±20Ma,表明成矿作用发生于晚石炭世。矿床形成于别珍套—科古琴石炭纪岛弧带,成岩成矿与石炭纪巴音沟洋壳向南的俯冲作用密切相关,可能的成矿机制是由于洋壳向南对赛里木隆起带陆壳基底的俯冲,岛弧基底断裂系向北逆冲,导致一系列与斑岩矿床有关的中酸性岩浆活动,区域深大断裂为岩浆的上侵提供了条件。     

Corundum-group minerals in rocks of the Khibiny alkaline pluton,Kola Peninsula

Five minerals of the corundum group have been identified in the Khibiny pluton with certainty. Corundum proper and karelianite occur only in hornfels after volcanic and sedimentary rocks. Xenoliths of hornfels mark the ring faults that bound foidalite within the field of foyaite. Hematite occurs in hydrothermally altered nepheline syenite and crosscutting hydrothermal veins related to the ring faults. Minerals of the ilmenite-pyrophanite series are present in all rocks of the pluton, including veins. Accessory ilmenite in foyaite varies from the manganese variety and pyrophanite in the inner and outer parts of the pluton to manganese-free ilmenite in zone of the Main Ring Fault. In xenoliths of volcanic rocks and alkaline ultramafic rocks, ilmenite is enriched in magnesium. The zoning in distribution of the above-mentioned minerals and the character of variation in their compositions from margins of the pluton to its center are consistent with the petrochemical zoning formed as a result of foyaite alteration of near ring faults.     

In situ tensile fracture toughness of surficial cohesive marine sediments

This study reports the first in situ measurements of tensile fracture toughness, K _IC, of soft, surficial, cohesive marine sediments. A newly developed probe continuously measures the stress required to cause tensile failure in sediments to depths of up to 1 m. Probe measurements are in agreement with standard laboratory methods of K _IC measurements in both potter’s clay and natural sediments. The data comprise in situ depth profiles from three field sites in Nova Scotia, Canada. Measured K _IC at two muddy sites (median grain size of 23–50 μm) range from near zero at the sediment surface to >1,800 Pa m^1/2 at 0.2 m depth. These profiles also appear to identify the bioturbated/mixed depth. K _IC for a sandy site (>90% sand) is an order of magnitude lower than for the muddy sediments, and reflects the lack of cohesion/adhesion. A comparison of K _IC, median grain size, and porosity in muddy sediments indicates that consolidation increases fracture strength, whereas inclusion of sand causes weakening; thus, sand-bearing layers can be easily identified in K _IC profiles. K _IC and vane-measured shear strength correlate strongly, which suggests that the vane measurements should perhaps be interpreted as shear fracture toughness, rather than shear strength. Comparison of in situ probe-measured values with K _IC of soils and gelatin shows that sediments have a K _IC range intermediate between denser compacted soils and softer, elastic gelatin.