2005年3月一次寒潮天气过程的诊断分析

利用NECP1°×1°的6小时分析资料和常规观测等资料,对2005年3月10~13日一次全国性寒潮天气过程的环流背景、影响天气系统及成因进行了分析。结果表明:这次寒潮及寒潮天气主要成因是(1)西欧上空500hPa强暖平流致使在西伯利亚地区形成阻塞高压,建立横槽,横槽北侧的东北气流引导超极地冷空气和西路冷空气合并加强;形成了异常强的冷高压、锋区、冷温度中心和冷温度平流。(2)两个短波槽东移侵入阻塞高压,使得横槽两次建立和转为竖槽,导致强冷空气大举南侵。(3)寒潮带来大范围强降温、700hPa西南急流与冷空气交汇、1000hPa以上层气温在0℃以下的垂直分布,为南方大到暴雪提供了动力、水汽和凝结的温度条件。     

1994-2006年长江三角洲和东北平原酸性气体浓度变化

 利用长江三角洲和东北平原地区大气本底站的二氧化硫（SO2）和氮氧化物（NOx）历史资料和近期取得的观测数据,探讨两个地区人为排放对这些气候相关酸性气体的不同贡献。从两种酸性气体过去和现在的浓度水平,估算了它们在两个地区的增长率,比较了NOx与SO2比值的不同变化趋势。结果表明,早在20世纪90年代中期,长江三角洲酸性气体污染水平已经较高,其后主要是NOx浓度显著升高,从而使该地区成为硫和氮污染并重的地区;东北平原酸性气体过去浓度很低,但这些气体以很高的速率增长,虽然目前浓度水平仍然比较低,但未来形势不容乐观。     

夏季青藏高原水汽输送特征

使用ＧＭＳ－５的６．７μｍ水汽图、云图及天气图等资料，综合分析了１９９５年６月中旬至７月上旬青藏高原上空的水汽输送过程，总结出中、高层水汽输送的三种环流型特征（脊东型、脊西型和反相型）；并初步分析了它们与降雨的关系。     

深圳市闪电定位资料误差分析及其优化

利用场地误差优化模式对深圳地区的地闪定位资料进行优化处理。首先对深圳市闪电定位系统进行简单介绍,然后利用改进的传输线模式对真实地表环境下的闪电辐射电磁场进行计算,以分析深圳市闪电定位系统的场地误差,最后基于定位误差和场地误差模式对闪电定位数据进行定位误差订正。结果表明不同方位角上的不规则地形对继后回击电磁场波形具有不同影响,随着表征地形粗糙程度的高度均方根的增加,电场的峰值下降,波形的上升沿时间增加。同时,电场波形上升沿时间也会随着方位角的变化而变化,这可能会给时间到达法的定位带来一定误差。为了验证该算法的合理性,对该系统覆盖的区域进行了闪电定位数据优化精度的时空分布分析和评估。结果表明这种优化方案是可行的、可靠的,优化后的闪电定位精度明显提高。     

内蒙古地区T639气象要素预报性能评估检验

通过T639模式预报产品在内蒙古地区降水量、2 m温度、相对湿度和10 m风向、风速及降水过程预报效果的适用性研究,得出以下结论,温度和相对湿度预报的准确率较风向、风速明显偏高,温度和相对湿度预报的误差系统偏小,风速预报误差偏大的概率较大;降水量的预报准确率随降水等级增加而递减,对小雨而言,模式漏报率小于空报率,多报降水的偏差和少报降水的偏差相近。在预报要素空间分布上,风向预报的偏差顺时针偏转,其夹角小于45°,温度预报偏差总体偏小,相对湿度预报偏差由西向东表现为“+、-、+、-”的分布特征;小雨和中雨落区预报偏大,暴雨落区预报偏小;贝加尔湖冷涡强度的预报偏强,西太平洋副热带高压的强度预报偏弱,影响范围偏西偏北。     

Elemental characteristics of lacustrine oil shale and its controlling factors of palaeo-sedimentary environment on oil yield: a case from Chang 7 oil layer of Triassic Yanchang Formation in southern Ordos Basin

As an important unconventional resource, oil shale has received widespread attention. The oil shale of the Chang 7 oil layer from Triassic Yanchang Formation in Ordos Basin represents the typical lacustrine oil shale in China. Based on analyzing trace elements and oil yield from boreholes samples, characteristics and paleo-sedimentary environments of oil shale and relationship between paleo-sedimentary environment and oil yield were studied. With favorable quality, oil yield of oil shale varies from 1.4% to 9.1%. Geochemical data indicate that the paleo-redox condition of oil shale’s reducing condition from analyses of V/Cr, V/(V + Ni), U/Th, δU, and authigenic uranium. Equivalent Boron, Sp, and Sr/Ba illustrate that paleosalinity of oil shale is dominated by fresh water. The paleoclimate of oil shale is warm and humid by calculating the chemical index of alteration and Sr/Cu. Fe/Ti and (Fe + Mn)/Ti all explain that there were hot water activities during the sedimentary period of oil shale. In terms of Zr/Rb, paleohydrodynamics of oil shale is weak. By means of Co abundance and U/Th, paleo-water-depth of oil shale is from 17.30 to 157.26 m, reflecting sedimentary environment which is mainly in semi deep–deep lake facies. Correlation analyses between oil yield and six paleoenvironmental factors show that the oil yield of oil shale is mainly controlled by paleo-redox conditions, paleoclimate, hot water activities, and depth of water. Paleosalinity and paleohydrodynamics have an inconspicuous influence on oil yield.     

中国贵金属矿床的基本成矿规律与找矿方向

通过对近年来贵金属矿床勘查进展及其主要类型、主要成矿时代、主要矿集区等的分析与归纳,总结了中国金矿床、银矿床和铂族元素矿床的基本成矿规律,并提出它们各自的找矿方向。中国金矿床类型多,主要形成于中生代和新生代,集中在胶东、辽东、华北地台边缘、小秦岭、阿尔泰、金沙江-红河断裂带、台湾和东南沿海、滇黔桂、陕甘川及长江、黑龙江等主要水系的上游,金矿的找矿方向包括:①老矿区的"探边摸底"和"攻深找盲";②新矿集区的典型研究与采选冶技术改进;③综合利用技术的创新将使相当多的表外矿变为当前可开采的矿床;④新区勘查;⑤加强成矿系列、成矿体系和成矿规律的研究,以理论指导找矿并综合评价。中国银矿以伴生银矿为主,主要形成于中生代和新生代,变质岩、岩浆岩和沉积岩均可容矿,造山带和盆地区的构造破碎带尤其值得重视。当前需要加强对锰矿区含银性和Mn异常区的研究,尤其是中国东部中新生代盆地区断裂带与Mn、Ag化探异常吻合地区,应该综合评价。中国铂族元素矿床可以分为岩浆型、沉积型和热液型三大类,可形成于从前寒武纪到新生代的各个时代,至少构成8个重要成矿远景区(带),重点放在康滇地轴和二叠纪末期峨眉地幔柱影响到的地区,但华北地台老基底中的原生矿及其周边的砂矿不可忽视。     

利用矿物方解石进行水体除磷实验研究

为探索解决水体富营养化问题的新方法,利用矿物方解石对含磷溶液进行了除磷实验。实验结果表明,方解石晶芽可以促进磷的沉淀,降低溶液磷浓度;其降磷效果与溶液初始磷浓度有关,初始磷浓度为1.2mg/L,除磷率为12.68%,初始磷浓度为3mg/L,除磷率为69.94%,初始磷浓度为5mg/L,除磷率为88.48%;同样,实验温度升高,可使方解石降磷效果明显提高。经透射电子显微镜测试,除磷沉淀物没有明显的晶质体特征。     

湖北省中、晚二叠世煤系沉积期地质构造特征及其控煤作用

湖北省中、晚二叠世煤系沉积期的古构造格架是＂两隆夹一坳＂,北部为北西向秦淮巨型隆起、南部为东西向江南巨型隆起,两隆起之间为近东西向的大型波状坳陷盆地—湖北坳陷,该聚煤盆地的形成及总体展布受南北两个巨型隆起带控制,在中、晚二叠世湖北坳陷处于陆表海环境,接受了海陆交互相的含煤岩系沉积,煤系沉积与分布受盆地的控制,厚煤层和富煤带主要呈北西向展布,与聚煤盆地内次级坳陷相吻合。     

Stochastic Fracture Propagation Modelling for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Fractures and fracture networks are the fundamental components of enhanced geothermal systems and determine their technical and economic viability. A realistic fracture model that can adequately describe a fracture-stimulated reservoir is critical for subsequent flow and heat transfer analyses of the system. Fractures in these systems are essentially the product of hydraulic stimulations of the reservoir that, together with ground conditions and the local stress regime, determine how fractures are formed and propagated. This paper describes three methods for generating realistic fracture models for enhanced geothermal systems; two of them incorporate the fracture propagation process in the modelling and hence provide a stochastic fracture propagation model. The methods are: a Bayesian framework in the form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, an extended Random Sampling Consensus model and a Point and Surface Association Consensus model. The conditioning data used in these methods are seismic events recorded during fracture stimulation. Geodynamics’ Habanero reservoir in the Cooper Basin of South Australia is used as a case study to test these methods.