Role of a simplified hydrological cycle and clouds in regulating the climate–biota system of Daisyworld

The role of a simplified hydrological cycle and a physical representation of clouds is investigated in the Daisyworld model, subject to constant and variable solar forcing and varying cloud albedo and height. Under constant forcing, properties of the cloudy hydrologic cycle control the long-term system dynamics to non-oscillatory, oscillatory, abiotic or biotic states. In case of oscillatory solutions, their amplitude and periodicity are controlled by the net cooling or warming effects from clouds. Two conditions are considered under variable forcing—active or neutral—depending on the existence or not of biota–environment feedbacks. Temperature, cloudiness and hydrological variables are self-regulated in the active condition, whereas non-regulated in the neutral condition. Self-regulation is quantified through two measurements (luminosity range and total life), both of which can be larger in our model than in several other variants of Daisyworld, depending on cloud characteristics. The hydrological cycle and clouds can make the planet more habitable for life, independent of the capacity of the system for biological adaptation. Two hypotheses are put forward: (1) beneficial effects for life emerge from biota–clouds interactions, enhancing the global amount of life and extending the life span; and (ii) the existence of a maximum self-regulation capacity principle.     

Vertical profiles of biospheric and fossil fuel-derived CO2 and fossil fuel CO2 : CO ratios from airborne measurements of Δ14C, CO2 and CO above Colorado, USA

Measurements of  Δ¹⁴C  in atmospheric CO₂ are an effective method of separating CO₂ additions from fossil fuel and biospheric sources or sinks of CO₂. We illustrate this technique with vertical profiles of CO₂ and  Δ¹⁴C  analysed in whole air flask samples collected above Colorado, USA in May and July 2004. Comparison of lower tropospheric composition to cleaner air at higher altitudes (>5 km) revealed considerable additions from respiration in the morning in both urban and rural locations. Afternoon concentrations were mainly governed by fossil fuel emissions and boundary layer depth, also showing net biospheric CO₂ uptake in some cases. We estimate local industrial CO₂:CO emission ratios using in situ measurements of CO concentration. Ratios are found to vary by 100% and average 57 mole CO₂:1 mole CO, higher than expected from emissions inventories. Uncertainty in CO₂ from different sources was ±1.1 to ±4.1 ppm for addition or uptake of −4.6 to 55.8 ppm, limited by  Δ¹⁴C  measurement precision and uncertainty in background  Δ¹⁴C  and CO₂ levels.     

Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread

We have characterized the relative contributions to uncertainty in predictions of global warming amount by year 2100 in the C4MIP model ensemble ( Friedlingstein et al., 2006 ) due to both carbon cycle process uncertainty and uncertainty in the physical climate properties of the Earth system. We find carbon cycle uncertainty to be important. On average the spread in transient climate response is around 40% of that due to the more frequently debated uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity and global heat capacity.
This result is derived by characterizing the influence of different parameters in a global climate-carbon cycle 'box' model that has been calibrated against the 11 General Circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) in the C4MIP ensemble; a collection of current state-of-the-art climate models that include an explicit representation of the global carbon cycle.     

Is the recent build-up of atmospheric CO2 over Europe reproduced by models. Part 2: an overview with the atmospheric mesoscale transport model CHIMERE

In this issue, Ramonet et al. revealed a positive trend in European, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations relative to a marine, North Atlantic reference baseline, for the years 2001–2006. The observed build up mainly occurred during the cold season where it reaches a 0.8 ppm yr⁻¹ at low-altitude stations to a 0.3 ppm yr⁻¹ at mid-altitude stations. We explore the cause of this build-up using the mesoscale model CHIMERE. We first model the observed trends, using interannually varying fluxes and transport, then suppress the interannual variability in fluxes or aspects of transport to elucidate the cause. The run with no interannual variability in fluxes still matches observed trends suggesting that transport is the major cause. Separate runs varying either boundary layer height or winds show that changes in boundary layer height explain the trends at low-altitude stations within the continents while changes in wind regimes drive changes elsewhere.     

Assessment of the soil CO2 gradient method for soil CO2 efflux measurements: comparison of six models in the calculation of the relative gas diffusion coefficient

This paper uses a refined soil gradient method to estimate soil CO₂ efflux. Six different models are used to determine the relative gas diffusion coefficient (ξ). A weighted harmonic averaging is used to estimate the soil CO₂ diffusion coefficient, yielding a better estimate of soil CO₂ efflux. The resulting soil CO₂ efflux results are then compared to the soil CO₂ efflux measured with a soil chamber. Depending on the choice of ξ model used, the estimated soil CO₂ efflux using the gradient method reasonably approximates the efflux obtained using the soil chamber method. In addition, the estimated soil CO₂ efflux obtained by this improved method is well described by an exponential function of soil temperature at a depth of 0.05 m with the temperature sensitivity ( Q ₁₀) of 1.81 and a linear function of soil moisture at a depth of 0.12 m, in general agreement with previous findings. These results suggest that the gradient method is a practical cost-effective means to measure soil CO₂ emissions. Results from the present study suggest that the gradient method can be used successfully to measure soil CO₂ efflux provided that proper attention is paid to the judicious use of the proper diffusion coefficient.     

An analysis of regional climate model performance over the tropical Americas. Part I: simulating seasonal variability of precipitation associated with ENSO forcing

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) constitute a major source of predictability in the tropics. We evaluate the ability of a regional climate model (the Rossby Centre Atmospheric Model; RCA) to downscale SST and large-scale atmospheric anomalies associated with ENSO. RCA is configured over the tropical east Pacific and tropical Americas and runs for the period 1979–2005, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) lateral and surface boundary conditions. We study the ability of RCA to represent regional patterns of precipitation, with respect to both the climatology and interannual variability associated with ENSO. The latter is achieved by grouping the simulations into El Niño and La Niña composites and studying the delayed response of precipitation to SST forcing in four regions of Central and South America.
In this paper, we concentrate on seasonal mean timescales. We find that RCA accurately simulates the main features of the precipitation climatology over the four regions and also reproduces the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO forcing. Furthermore, the model captures the variability in precipitation anomalies between different ENSO events. The model exhibits a wet bias over the northern Amazon and slightly overestimates the magnitude of ENSO anomalies over Central America.     

Measurements of desert dust optical characteristics at Porte au Sahara during SAMUM

Main optical characteristics of desert dust, such as phase function and single scattering albedo, have been derived from combinations of sun-/sky-radiometer and satellite measurements during the SAMUM experiment (10 May–10 June 2006) at the site Porte au Sahara (30.237°N, 5.607°W) in South Morocco. Scattering phase functions have been retrieved using combined data of spectral aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and spectral sky brightness in the almucantar, considering non-spherical light scattering. Intercomparisons of modelled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance with satellite observations of the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography () instrument have been used for the estimation of spectral single scattering albedo. For the radiative transfer calculations scattering phase functions and AOT from ground-based observations have been used. The spectral single scattering albedo ranges from 0.93 in the blue to 0.98 at 753 nm.     

Desert dust aerosol air mass mapping in the western Sahara, using particle properties derived from space-based multi-angle imaging

Coincident observations made over the Moroccan desert during the Sahara mineral dust experiment (SAMUM) 2006 field campaign are used both to validate aerosol amount and type retrieved from multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) observations, and to place the suborbital aerosol measurements into the satellite's larger regional context. On three moderately dusty days during which coincident observations were made, MISR mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (AOT) agrees with field measurements point-by-point to within 0.05–0.1. This is about as well as can be expected given spatial sampling differences; the space-based observations capture AOT trends and variability over an extended region. The field data also validate MISR's ability to distinguish and to map aerosol air masses, from the combination of retrieved constraints on particle size, shape and single-scattering albedo. For the three study days, the satellite observations (1) highlight regional gradients in the mix of dust and background spherical particles, (2) identify a dust plume most likely part of a density flow and (3) show an aerosol air mass containing a higher proportion of small, spherical particles than the surroundings, that appears to be aerosol pollution transported from several thousand kilometres away.     

Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies

Abatement of particulate matter has traditionally been driven by health concerns rather than its role in global warming. Here we assess future abatement strategies in terms of how much they reduce the climate impact of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from contained combustion. We develop global scenarios which take into account regional differences in climate impact, costs of abatement and ability to pay, as well as both the direct and indirect (snow-albedo) climate impact of BC and OC. To represent the climate impact, we estimate consistent region-specific values of direct and indirect global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP). The indirect GWP has been estimated using a physical approach and includes the effect of change in albedo from BC deposited on snow. The indirect GWP is highest in the Middle East followed by Russia, Europe and North America, while the total GWP is highest in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. We conclude that prioritizing emission reductions in Asia represents the most cost-efficient global abatement strategy for BC because Asia is (1) responsible for a large share of total emissions, (2) has lower abatement costs compared to Europe and North America and (3) has large health cobenefits from reduced PM₁₀ emissions.