Wind sensitivity of the inter-ocean heat exchange

An idealised two-basin model is used to investigate the impact of the wind field on the heat exchange between the ocean basins. The scalar potential of the divergent component of the horizontal heat flux is computed, which gives a 'coarse-grained' image of the surface heat flux that captures the large-scale structure of the horizontal heat transport. Further the non-divergent component is examined, as well as the meridional heat transport and the temperature–latitude overturning stream function. A sensitivity analysis examines the heat transport response to changes in wind stress at different latitudes. The results are compared with results from an eddy-permitting global circulation model. The westerly wind stress over the Southern Ocean has two effects: a local reduction of the surface heat loss in response to the equatorward surface Ekman drift, and a global re-routing of the heat export from the Indo-Pacific. Without wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific heat export is released to the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean, and the net heat transport in the southern Atlantic is southward. With wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific export enters the Atlantic through the Aghulas and is released in the Northern Hemisphere. The easterlies enhance the poleward heat transport in both basins.     

Leakage and spillover effects of forest management on carbon storage: theoretical insights from a simple model

Leakage (spillover) refers to the unintended negative (positive) consequences of forest carbon (C) management in one area on C storage elsewhere. For example, the local C storage benefit of less intensive harvesting in one area may be offset, partly or completely, by intensified harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand. We present the results of a theoretical study aimed at identifying the key factors determining leakage and spillover, as a prerequisite for more realistic numerical studies. We use a simple model of C storage in managed forest ecosystems and their wood products to derive approximate analytical expressions for the leakage induced by decreasing the harvesting frequency of existing forest, and the spillover induced by establishing new plantations, assuming a fixed total wood production from local and remote (non-local) forests combined. We find that leakage and spillover depend crucially on the growth rates, wood product lifetimes and woody litter decomposition rates of local and remote forests. In particular, our results reveal critical thresholds for leakage and spillover, beyond which effects of forest management on remote C storage exceed local effects. Order of magnitude estimates of leakage indicate its potential importance at global scales.     

The effects of black carbon and sulphate aerosols in China regions on East Asia monsoons

In this paper, we examine the direct effects of sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols in China on East Asia monsoons and its precipitation processes by using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3.0 model. It is demonstrated that sulphate and BC aerosols in China both have the effects to weaken East Asia monsoons in both summer and winter seasons. However, they certainly differ from each other in affecting vertical structures of temperature and atmospheric circulations. Their differences are expected because of their distinct optical properties, that is, scattering versus absorbing. Even for a single type of aerosol, its effects on temperature structures and atmospheric circulations are largely season-dependent. Applications of T -test on our results indicate that forcing from BC aerosols over China is relatively weak and limited. It is also evident from our results that the effects of synthetic aerosols (sulphate and BC together) on monsoons are not simply a linear summation between these two types of aerosols. Instead, they are determined by their integrated optical properties. Synthetic aerosols to a large degree resemble effects of sulphate aerosols. This implies a likely scattering property for the integration of BC and sulphate aerosols in China.     

Climate effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last century

The buildup of atmospheric CO₂ since 1958 is surprisingly well explained by the simple premise that 57% of the industrial emissions (fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture) has remained airborne. This premise accounts well for the rise both before and after 1980 despite a decrease in the growth rate of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, which occurred at that time, and by itself should have caused the airborne fraction to decrease. In contrast, the buildup prior to 1958 was not simply proportional to cumulative fossil fuel emissions, and notably included a period during the 1940s when CO₂ growth stalled despite continued fossil fuel emissions. Here we show that the constancy of the airborne fraction since 1958 can be in part explained by decadal variations in global land air temperature, which caused a warming-induced release of CO₂ from the land biosphere to the atmosphere. We also show that the 1940s plateau may be related to these decadal temperature variations. Furthermore, we show that there is a close connection between the phenomenology producing CO₂ variability on multidecadal and El Niño timescales.     

Interannual variability of NDVI and bird species diversity in Kenya

Species richness, or simply the number of species in a given area, is commonly used as an important indicator of biological diversity. Spatial variability in species richness has been postulated to depend upon environmental factors such as climate and climatic variability, which in turn may affect net primary productivity. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been shown to be correlated with climatic variables including rainfall, actual evapotranspiration and net primary productivity. To determine factors favoring high species richness, we examined the relationship between interannual NDVI variables and species richness of birds at a quarter degree scale (55 × 55 km). Results revealed a strong positive correlation between species richness and maximum average NDVI. Conversely, species richness showed negative correlation with standard deviation of maximum NDVI and the coefficient of variation. Though these relationships are indirect, they apparently operate through the green vegetation cover. Understanding such relationships can help in mapping and monitoring biological diversity, as well as in estimating changes in species richness in response to global climatic change.     

Assimilation of image sequences in numerical models

Understanding and forecasting the evolution of geophysical fluids is a major scientific and societal challenge. Forecasting algorithms should take into account all the available information on the considered dynamic system. The variational data assimilation (VDA) technique combines all these informations in an optimality system (O.S.) in a consistent way to reconstruct the model inputs. VDA is currently used by the major meteorological centres. During the last two decades about 30 satellites were launched to improve the knowledge of the atmosphere and of the oceans. They continuously provide a huge amount of data that are still underused by numerical forecast systems. In particular, the dynamic evolution of certain meteorological or oceanic features (such as eddies, fronts, etc.) that the human vision may easily detect is not optimally taken into account in realistic applications of VDA. Image Assimilation in VDA framework can be performed using 'pseudo-observation' techniques: they provide apparent velocity fields, which are assimilated as classical observations. These measurements are obtained by certain external procedures, which are decoupled with the considered dynamic system. In this paper, we suggest a more consistent approach, which directly incorporates image sequences into the O.S.