云南地区中小地震静力学和动力学参数定标关系

Source spectra for moderate and small earthquakes are obtained after removing the path effect, site effect, and instrument response, etc. in the observed S-wave spectra. Based on the Brune source model...     

WRF模式不同分辨率模拟分析

利用WRF中尺度模式对内蒙古地区2011年降水天气过程进行模拟分析,主要研究模式不同水平分辨率对温度和降水的影响。结果表明:水平分辨率为27km时,模式可以较好的模拟我区的降水落区和强度;不同分辨率下模拟单站降水结果存在差异,分辨率提高,模式空报率下降,但是漏报率却明显增加,TS评分降低;分辨率提高与温度预报准确率无明显的正相关,模式前12h预报准确率明显高于后12h,模式分辨率提高对后12h温度预报准确率结果有明显改善。     

2010年1月24日山西河津-万荣MS4.8地震的震源机制解与发震构造探讨

2010年1月24日,山西省运城市河津-万荣交界地区发生Ms4.8地震.由于本次地震强度较低,并未形成地表破裂带,分析其发震构造具有一定的困难.地震现场工作队只能根据浅层人工地震剖面、附近钻孔资料、烈度等震线长轴和震中区附近活动断裂等来推定,认为西辛封隐伏断裂为可能的发震断裂.为此,下面我们将在分析本次地震的震源机制解、序列三维空间分布特征的基础上,结合本次地震的宏观考察结果,确定其发震构造并探讨发震机理.     

热带玛珥湖沉积物的磁组构特征及对湖水动力条件的指示

热带玛珥湖湖水动力条件的变化,是反映区域有效降雨量的重要指标,为探测有效降雨的时空分布特征及其机制提供了良好的基础素材。对位于雷琼半岛的双池岭和湖光岩两个玛珥湖进行沉积物磁组构的分析,结果表明尽管湖泊沉积物磁面理发育、磁线理值很小,玛珥湖的水动力条件比较微弱,但各向异性度P 和水流速度函数Fs 呈现向上递减的长期趋势,与湖泊草本植物孢粉含量向上增加、有机碳含量减低、沉积物颜色从黑褐色向青灰色过渡的特征一致,反映了大约9cal.kaB.P.以来,华南区域有效降雨量逐渐增加、湖水平面上升的过程。这种变化的机理可能是当夏季风减弱时,热带辐合带(ITCZ)南移、ENSO活动加强的结果。     

海冰形变对北极冬季CICE模式冰厚模拟结果的影响

海冰数值模式是研究海冰动力热力状态参量及之间联系的有效途径。目前对冰厚数值模拟结果的分析远远少于对海冰范围/面积和密集度的研究,对冰速与海冰形变对冰厚分布影响的研究也尚欠缺。本文利用Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）海冰模式模拟了1980−2018年的北极海冰变化,并使用遥感、同化冰厚数据进行比对验证,分析了模拟冰速和海冰形变对冰厚的影响,计算了冰速的散度和切变偏差对冰厚偏差的贡献。结果显示,CICE对北极70°N以北区域平均冰厚和冰速的年际变化模拟基本合理,但模拟的平均冰厚和冰速多年变化趋势均小于同化数据的变化率;模拟和观测冰厚的空间分布差异与冰速和形变率的偏差有密切联系,主要表现为波弗特海的正偏差和北极中央区至弗拉姆海峡的负偏差。泛北极区域散度和切变偏差在3月之前对冰厚偏差的贡献在13%～16%之间变化,3−4月则由16%跃变至27%。散度偏差主导了11月、12月波弗特海区域的冰厚正偏差,切变偏差主导了冬季加拿大群岛以北海域和穿极流区域的冰厚负偏差。     

A Statistical Comparison of the Westerly Wind Bursts between the Positive and Negative Phases of the PDO

To understand the diversity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) during recent decades, characteristics of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed. It is shown that, during the ENSO developing period, the El Niño evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase. The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength, which contains most WWB characteristics, including the accumulated days, occurrence frequency, strength, and spatial range of WWBs. The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.     

Fischer图解及其在旋回层序研究中的应用──以北京西山张夏组为例

Ｆｉｓｃｈｅｒ图解（又称为容纳空间图解）为人们研究沉积旋回在空间上的叠置规律、相对海平面变化、层序级次的划分以及地层层序对比等提供了一种客观实用的方法。本文较详细地讨论了该图解的绘制方法及应注意的问题。运用该图解，将北京西山下苇甸剖面张夏组划分为１个大的三级旋回层序和４个四级旋回层序，根据图解反映的相对海平面变化讨论了旋回层序与构造运动间的关系，提出华北板块晚寒武世之前的＂翘翘板运动＂应始于中寒武世张夏期之早期到中期。     

气象装备保障效能评估技术

随着气象部门装备保障业务重要性的不断提高,开展装备保障评估方法的研究,对保障质量进行科学评价成为一个新的课题。就监控、维护和维修3个装备保障子业务分别建立了各自的评估体系,还利用监控、维护和维修业务的独立性,提出了根据业务单位职责的组成,使用监控率、故障率和维修率三者的加权平均值评估装备保障综合效能的方法,对建立装备保障业务的考核体系有一定的参考借鉴意义。     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.