Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Validation of climate model output using Bayesian statistical methods

The growing interest in and emphasis on high spatial resolution estimates of future climate has demonstrated the need to apply regional climate models (RCMs) to that problem. As a consequence, the need for validation of these models, an assessment of how well an RCM reproduces a known climate, has also grown. Validation is often performed by comparing RCM output to gridded climate datasets and/or station data. The primary disadvantage of using gridded climate datasets is that the spatial resolution is almost always different and generally coarser than climate model output. We have used a Bayesian statistical model derived from observational data to validate RCM output. We used surface air temperature (SAT) data from 109 observational stations in California, all with records of approximately 50 years in length, and created a statistical model based on this data. The statistical model takes into account the elevation of the station, distance from coastline, and the NOAA climate region in which the station resides. Analysis indicates that the statistical model provides reliable estimates of the mean monthly SAT at any given station. In our method, the uncertainty in the estimates produced by the statistical model are directly determined by obtaining probability density functions for predicted SATs. This statistical model is then used to estimate average SATs corresponding to each of the climate model grid cells. These estimates are compared to the output of the RCM to assess how well the RCM matches the observed climate as defined by the statistical model. Overall, the match between the RCM output and the statistical model is good, with some deficiencies likely due in part to the representation of topography in the RCM.     

Effectiveness of sulfate-reducing passive bioreactors for treating highly contaminated acid mine drainage: I. Effect of hydraulic retention time

Sulfate-reducing passive bioreactors have proved to be an effective technology for the treatment of acid mine drainage (AMD) contaminated waters over relatively short periods of time (1–5 a). However, long-term efficiency can be limited by several factors including problems related to the hydraulic properties of the reactive mixture. In this study, the effect of two hydraulic retention times (HRTs) of 7.3 d and 10 d on the performance of passive bioreactors was evaluated over an 11-month period for the treatment of a highly contaminated AMD. Evolution of the porosity and hydraulic conductivity of the reactive mixture was also evaluated during the 15-month operation of two bioreactors. Results indicated that bioreactors were effective at both HRTs for increasing the pH and alkalinity of contaminated water and for SO₄ and metal removal (60–82% for Fe and up to 99.9% for Cd, Ni and Zn). Although the quality of treated effluent was significantly improved with the 10 d HRT compared to the 7.3 d HRT, results showed that the higher HRT reduced the porosity and the permeability of the reactive mixture which might lead to hydraulic related problems and, eventually, to limited efficiency in long-term operation compared to a shorter HRT. The choice of HRT for a passive bioreactor must therefore consider both the desired quality of treated effluent and the potential for deterioration of hydraulic properties in the reactive mixture.     

Size‐frequency distributions of Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata (Brachiopoda: Megathyrididae) from the Central Tyrrhenian Sea

Size‐frequency distributions can support reliable inferences concerning population dynamics of brachiopods, but only a few data are available so far. In this study, length and width frequency distributions of dead specimens of the Recent brachiopods Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata from the Marine Protected Area ‘Secche di Tor Paterno’, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy (41°35′ N, 12°20′ E), are reported in order to add new data about size‐frequency distributions of brachiopods. The studied specimens came from death assemblages in the coralligenous substrate, in the Posidonia oceanica meadows, and in the sand channels. The observed patterns vary from left‐skewed (J. cordata) to right‐skewed (A. cuneata), indicating respectively a low and high mortality of smaller individuals. Significant differences between the coralligenous substrate and the P. oceanica meadow were observed for both species, revealing a variation among different habitats. All length and width distributions are clearly polymodal, but the biological meaning of the peaks is difficult to interpret, as the two species seem to have a 2‐year life span. A biometric analysis of shell sizes revealed that length and width are the most variable parameters during the growth of the animal.     

Beach nourishments at Coolangatta Bay over the period 1987–2005: Impacts and lessons

Erosion of the southern Gold Coast beaches (SE Queensland, Australia) was exacerbated after the extension of the Tweed River training walls in the early 1960s. To achieve the objective of restoring and maintaining beach amenity, significant nourishment works have been undertaken in Coolangatta Bay over the past 30 years. Particularly, under the Tweed River Entrance Sand Bypassing Project (TRESBP) since 1995, a number of nourishment campaigns and the implementation of a permanent sand bypass system in 2001 have resulted in significant changes of Coolangatta Bay morphology. The present case study investigates the influence of both wave climate and nourishment works on the area extending from the updrift Snapper Rocks area to downdrift Kirra Beach. SWAN spectral wave model is implemented at Coolangatta Bay area and forced by the global wave model WW3 to estimate wave forcing and the potential natural longshore drift entering in Coolangatta. Specific transects extracted from accurate bathymetric surveys are used to investigate and quantify Coolangatta Bay sedimentation for the period 1987–2005. A network of Argus video stations provides high sample rate information on the shoreline evolution. Results show that, over the past 10 years, Coolangatta Bay has infilled rapidly. Sedimentation reached up to 6 m in some areas between 1995 and 2005, with beach width increasing by 200 m at Kirra Beach. Rapid seaward shoreline migration is consistent with the intense over-pumping of sand relative to the natural potential to move sand alongshore. The nourishment strategy used during this project has successfully delivered large amounts of sand to the southern Gold Coast embayment, although it has been up to now controversial from many community perspectives. The artificial sand bypassing process proved to be much more efficient than depositing the dredged sand in the nearshore area which requires a significant period of low energy condition in order for the deposited sediment to migrate shoreward and weld to the shore. This case study confirms that, when carefully undertaken, sand bypassing is a sustainable and flexible soft engineering approach which can work in concert with natural processes.     

In situ N and C labelling of indigenous and plantation tree species in a tropical mountain forest (Munessa, Ethiopia) for subsequent litter and soil organic matter turnover studies

We propose a novel pragmatic approach of in situ ¹⁵N and ¹³C isotope labelling of trees for subsequent litter decomposition and turnover studies under field conditions. Using this method the labelling of even large trees under natural conditions is possible and compared to tree labelling under artificial conditions in greenhouses the in situ approach is less expensive. ¹³C and ¹⁵N labelling were carried out simultaneously via photosynthesis by tree gassing with ¹³CO₂ and by stem injection of ¹⁵NH₄¹⁵NO₃. The aims of this study were: (i) to produce a sufficient quantity of labelled plant material for subsequent field incubation studies and (ii) to investigate the effectiveness and distribution of in situ ¹⁵N (¹⁵NH₄¹⁵NO₃) and ¹³C (¹³CO₂) labelling of Podocarpus falcatus, Croton macrostachys, Prunus africana and Cupressus lusitanica. The following targets need to be achieved: (i) Assuming almost natural litter fall conditions, enough labelled plant material must be produced in situ for the turnover experiment; (ii) intra-plant tracer enrichment shall be homogeneous; (iii) tracer enrichment should be comparable for different tree species; and (iv) tracer enrichment must be sufficient for subsequent litter turnover studies using the stable isotope approach. Our results clearly demonstrated that several kilograms of labelled plant material can be produced in situ. For many ecosystems, this amount is sufficient for a long term litter turnover experiment on a field scale under almost natural litter fall conditions. However, intra-plant label uptake of ¹³C and ¹⁵N was heterogeneous so that only leaves (litter) should be used for the turnover study. It could be shown that only a part of the labile C and N fraction in the leaves was labelled. Nevertheless, label uptake was sufficient for subsequent litter turnover studies.     

Perturbations of the Kepler Problem in Global Coordinates: A Program

The present paper is a brief report of how, along the lines of a previous paper, the implementation of the program KEPLER¹, for the numerical integration of the perturbations of the Kepler problem, has been carried out.