Site-dependent models of earthquake ground motion

Random vibration analyses of structural systems subjected to seismic loading are dependent upon the characterization of earthquake ground motion as a stochastic process. The response of structural systems to earthquakes is dependent strongly on the local geological conditions, which should be incorporated into seismological models of ground motion. In the study presented herein, three previously developed ground-motion models are adapted to incorporate site-dependent characteristics. Records obtained from two recording stations in California are used as a basis for the ground-motion models. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators are subjected to ensembles of accelerograms generated from these models, and both elastic and inelastic response are considered. Response statistics are compared to those generated by the analysis of structural response to ensembles of recorded motion from the two sites. The important features of the ground motion for effective reproduction of response statistics are identified, and observations are made on the sensitivity of specific response parameters to site-dependent characteristics of the ground motion.     

不同洞口位置节能砌块隐形密框复合墙体恢复力模型研究

为研究洞口位置对节能砌块隐形密框复合墙体滞回特性的影响,对6个采用低周反复加载方式的1/2缩尺试件的试验现象及数据进行分析。基于试验结果和现有恢复力模型理论,对试验数据进行拟合分析,利用退化四折线模型和回归方法,建立节能砌块隐形密框复合墙体的四折线恢复力模型。试验结果表明:当洞口位于墙体中间时,试件滞回环愈加丰满,试件初始刚度有所增加,承载力衰减速率减小,卸载刚度退化速率变慢。通过对骨架曲线特征参数的计算,并和试验骨架曲线对比,两者吻合较好,表明该恢复力模型可以较好的反映出不同洞口位置对其滞回特性的影响,可为节能砌块隐形密框复合墙体的弹塑性分析及工程应用提供参考。     

Comparison of amplitude decay rates in reflection,refraction, and local earthquake records

Three types of seismic data recorded near Coalinga, California were analyzed to study the behavior of scattered waves: 1) aftershocks of the May 2, 1983 earthquake, recorded on verticalcomponent seismometers deployed by the USGS; 2) regional refraction profiles using large explosive sources recorded on essentially the same arrays above; 3) three common-midpoint (CMP) reflection surveys recorded with vibrator sources over the same area. Records from each data set were bandpassed filtered into 5 Hz wide passbands (over the range of 1–25 Hz), corrected for geometric spreading, and fit with an exponential model of amplitude decay. Decay rates were expressed in terms of inverse codaQ (Q _c ^–1 ).Q _c ^–1 values for earthquake and refraction data are generally comparable and show a slight decrease with increasing frequency. Decay rates for different source types recorded on proximate receivers show similar results, with one notable exception. One set of aftershocks shows an increase ofQ _c ^–1 with frequency.Where the amplitude decay rates of surface and buried sources are similar, the coda decay results are consistent with other studies suggesting the importance of upper crustal scattering in the formation of coda. Differences in the variation ofQ _c ^–1 with frequency can be correlated with differences in geologic structure near the source region, as revealed by CMP-stacked reflection data. A more detailed assessment of effects such as the depth dependence of scattered contributions to the coda and the role of intrinsic attenuation requires precise control of source-receiver field geometry and the study of synthetic seismic data calculated for velocity models developed from CMP reflection data.     

Fluids in the lithosphere, 2. Experimental constraints on CO2 transport in dunite and quartzite at elevated P-T conditions with implications for mantle and crustal decarbonation processes

In a series of experiments at 0.5–1.3 GPa and 1050–1200°C we have monitored the transport, via crack propagation, of CO₂ into well-annealed olivine and quartz aggregates. The objectives were to determine (1) the extent and rate of fluid penetration; (2) the effect of varying both P-T conditions and microstructure; and (3) the fluid penetration pathways. Experiments on CO₂ penetration into dunite annealed in the absence of MgO indicate rapid and pervasive fluid transport on a grain-dimension scale, but a limited penetration distance ( 1 mm). Additional experiments on dunite annealed in the presence of MgO (either dispersed or present at both ends), however, resulted in CO₂ penetration that was both pervasive on the scale of individual grains and almost always completely through the 5 mm long samples. The abundance of fine (10 μm) grains in the MgO-free dunite, in contrast to the much larger grain sizes of the samples annealed with MgO present, suggests the difference in fluid penetration behavior may arise because the strength variation in dunite scales with the grain size. Effects arising from changes in olivine point defect chemistry, however, are an additional possibility. The response of synthetic quartzite to CO₂ overpressure is distinct from that of dunite: Quartzite experiences rapid and complete penetration of CO₂, via a macroscopically visible system of transgranular fractures, over the range of P-T conditions investigated.The small amount of porosity ( 2–3%) present in most rock samples fabricated for this study, lacks three-dimensional connectivity, thus precluding any enhanced fluid penetration via porous flow. Pores could possibly enhance fluid penetration as the result of a small reduction in resistance to fracture, but the probable abundance of strength-controlling flaws in natural rocks is likely to produce similar behavior.The results of our experiments on olivine and olivine + MgO suggest that the transport of pressurized CO₂ in very olivine-rich mantle environments will be pervasive on the scale of individual grains and its extent may be dependent on rock microstructure and/or crystal chemical effects. Such pervasive fluid transport, perhaps associated with magma decarbonation, may have interesting implications for both magma transport and local LREE enrichment of adjacent mantle wall-rock. The ease with which quartzite is penetrated by CO₂ at the conditions of our experiments underscores the possible role of decarbonation reactions in crustal permeability-enhancement processes.     

Developing a novel hybrid model for seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings provides key information for disaster management. However, previous seismic loss prediction models ignored...     

高强钢筋增强UHPC-NC组合柱抗震性能研究

为探讨高强钢筋增强UHPC-NC组合柱抗震性能,基于大型有限元程序ABAQUS,结合UHPC、NC和高强钢筋材料本构关系,校准损伤塑性模型中相关参数,建立高强钢筋增强UHPC-NC组合柱抗震有限元模型。通过与3个NC柱和3个UHPC柱拟静力试验结果对比,验证分析模型的有效性。在此基础上,进一步探讨轴压比、纵筋直径、纵筋强度、箍筋间距和UHPC高度等敏感参数对高强钢筋增强UHPC-NC组合柱抗震性能的影响。结果表明,高强钢筋增强UHPC-NC组合柱位移延性系数随轴压比、纵筋直径和箍筋间距的增大而降低,随纵筋强度和UHPC高度的增加表现出先增大后逐渐平缓的趋势,合适的UHPC替换高度能充分发挥高强钢筋和UHPC材料特性并取得良好的经济性。     

Scale in structure and dynamics

Ian Main, Bruce Malamud, Chris Bean and John McCloskey summarize the presentations and lively debate at the British Geophysical Association's annual British Discussion Meeting on Scale-Invariance and Scale-Dependence in Earth Structure and Dynamics.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.