Potential of time‐lapse photography for identifying saturation area dynamics on agricultural hillslopes

Mapping saturation areas during rainfall events is important for understanding the dynamics of overland flow. In this study, we evaluate the potential of high temporal resolution time‐lapse photography for mapping the dynamics of saturation areas (i.e., areas where water is visually ponding on the surface) on the hillslope scale during natural rainfall. We take 1 image per minute over a 100 × 15 m² depression area on an agricultural field in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory, Austria. The images are georectified and classified by an automated procedure, using grey intensity as a threshold to identify saturation area. The optimum threshold T is obtained by comparing saturation areas from the automated analysis with the manual analysis of 149 images. T is found to be highly correlated with an image brightness characteristic defined as the greyscale image histogram mode M (Pearson correlation r = 0.91). We estimate T as T = M + C where C is a calibration parameter assumed to be constant during each event. The automated procedure estimates the total saturation area close to the manual analysis with mean normalized root mean square error of 9% and 21% if C is calibrated for each event and taken constant for all events, respectively. The spatial patterns of saturation are estimated with a geometric mean accuracy index of 94% as compared to the manual analysis of the same photos. The patterns are tested against field observations for one date as a preliminary demonstration, which yields a root mean square error of the shortest distance between the measured boundary points and the automatically classified boundary as 23 cm. The usefulness of the patterns is illustrated by exploring run‐off generation processes of an example event. Overall, the proposed classification method based on grey intensity is found to process images with highly varying brightnesses well. It is more efficient than the manual tracing for a large number of images, which allows the exploration of surface flow processes at high temporal resolution.     

Dry years and their relationship to crop production in Sri Lanka

Drought is a distinct agroclimatological hazard with far reaching consequences upon crop production. Among them, famines are regarded the most serious effects of climatological drought. Although there is no doubt about the principally valid relationship between drought and production losses it seems more problematic how this relationship can be proved statistically. In this paper annual rainfall data and production figures of the three major crops of Sri Lanka, rice (paddy), tea and rubber, are correlated, but only partially a true relationship between dry years and production losses could be observed. Reason for this may be the moderate degree of annual drought. From the results shown, the question arises how agricultural drought can be defined and how the climatic effects upon crop production can be studied satisfactorily.     

Theory And Measurements For Turbulence Spectra And Variances In The Atmospheric Neutral Surface Layer

Predictions from a new theory for high Reynolds number turbulent boundary layers during near-neutral conditions are shown to agree well with measurements of atmospheric surface-layer variances and spectra. The theory suggests surface-layer turbulence is determined by detached eddies that largely originate in the shearing motion immediately above the surface layer; as they descend into this layer, they are strongly distorted by the local shear and impinge onto the surface. Because the origin of these eddies is non-local, they are similar to those described in previous studies as `inactive' turbulence. However, they are, in fact, dynamically highly active, supplying the major mechanism for the momentum transport, including upward bursting on the time scale of the larger eddies. The vertical velocity results show that the variance and the low frequency parts of spectra increase with height in the surface layer, while in the self similar (k₁ ^-1) range the streamwise low frequency components are approximately constant with height. These large-scale longitudinal eddies extend to a length _s, which is equal to the boundary-layer height near the surface andincreases linearly to a maximum of about three times the boundary-layer height at roughly 15 m and decreases in the upper parts of the surface layer. This lower part of the surface layer, the eddy surface layer, is the region in which the eddies impinging from layers above are strongly distorted. This new result for the atmospheric boundary layer has practical application for calculating fluctuating wind loads on structures and lateral dispersion of pollution from local sources.     

Effect of sediment load on the microbenthic community of a shallow-water sandy sediment

Anthropogenic activities, such as construction work, dredging, and different kinds of recreation activities, can alter sediment loading in shallow coastal areas. The effect of increased load of fine sediment on the microbenthos (benthic microalgae, bacteria, and meiofauna) was studied in two experiments using undisturbed cores of a sandy sediment from a microtidal bay on the Swedish west coast. In each experiment, a total of 24 cores were incubated in an outdoor flow-through set-up. Twelve cores were treated with a 2.5-mm thick layer of autoclaved fine-grained, (silt) carbon-rich surface sediment. In the first experiment, estimates of the impact were based on measurements of chlorophylla, biomass of microalgae, bacteria, and meiofauna, and bacterial production. The main purpose of the second experiment was to study the effect on sediment oxygen profiles using microsensors. Within a week, after being covered by fine sediment, benthic microalgae (particularly diatoms) had migrated upward and the oxygen profiles were restored at the sediment surface by photosynthesis. However, the oxygen-producing layer became thinner and the algal composition changed. Bacterial biomass was restored to the same level as in the sandy sediment. Meiofauna also appeared to move upward and the meiofaunal composition was re-established. The results suggest that the microbenthic community of sandy sediment has an inherent capacity to recover after a moderate deposition of fine-particle sediment. Active upward migration of benthic diatoms appears to be a key mechanism for restoring the oxygenation of the sediment surface. The altered sediment type also implies changed species composition, and hence altered benthic trophic interactions, which may affect, for example, flatfish recruitment.     

Physics of the Omori law: Inferences from interevent time distributions and pore pressure diffusion modeling

Empirical laws and statistics of earthquakes are valuable as a basis for a better understanding of the earthquake cycle. In this paper we focus on the postseismic phase and the physics of aftershock sequences. Using interevent time distributions for a catalogue of Icelandic seismicity, we infer that the parameter C₂ in the Omori law, often considered to represent incomplete detection of aftershocks, is at least in part related to the physics of the earthquake process. We investigate the role of postseismic pore pressure diffusion after two Icelandic earthquakes on the rate of aftershocks and what we can infer about the physical meaning of C₂ from the diffusion process. Using the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion we obtain a rate of triggered points in our diffusion model that agrees with the modified Omori law, with a value of C₂ that is consistent with data. Our pore pressure diffusion model suggests that C₂ is related to the process of reducing high pore pressure gradients existing across a fault zone at short times after a main shock.     

Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.     

Fault gouge analyses: K–Ar illite dating,clay mineralogy and tectonic significance—a study from the Sierras Pampeanas,Argentina

We introduce a method for the detailed interpretation of K–Ar illite fine-fraction ages of fault gouges from non-sedimentary host rocks. Ages are cross-evaluated with several independent parameters, e.g. illite crystallinity, illite polytype quantification, grain size, mineralogical observations, K–Ar muscovite and biotite host-rock cooling ages as well as low-temperature thermochronological data (AFT, AHe, ZHe). This interpretation approach is applied to a regional study in order to constrain the ‘deformation path’ of the Eastern Sierras Pampeanas in NW Argentina. In the course of this study, a large number of gouge-bearing fault zones were systematically sampled and analysed. Obtained K–Ar illite fine-fraction ages range from Devonian to Cretaceous times, documenting a long-lasting brittle fault activity in this region. Ages >320 Ma are synchronous with a period of intra-Carboniferous compressional tectonism, whereas Permo-Triassic ages are contemporaneous to a flat-slab subduction episode of the Farallon plate beneath the South American plate. Middle to Late Permian and Early Triassic ages as well as Early Jurassic to Middle Cretaceous ages correlate with extensional tectonics in this region. Additionally, K–Ar illite ages reveal a propagation of brittle deformation from north to south in the Sierras de Córdoba and San Luis. Data integrity and consistency with other chronometers and geological evidence show that the here suggested interpretation is valid and can provide a powerful tool to evaluate cooling and deformation histories. Despite of that, we could show that the reliability of fault gouge data strongly depends on the regional cooling.     

MIPAS-Transall Observations of the Variability of CLONO2 during the Arctic Winter of 1994/95

In the winter of 1994/95 the German Transall research aircraft performed 5 campaigns in the European Arctic with 22 flights altogether. An extensive dataset of HNO3, ClONO2 and O3 column amounts was obtained by MIPAS-FT (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding - Flugzeug Transall) onboard the aircraft. In this paper we present the variability of the ClONO2 reservoir gas in the course of the winter. We include groundbased FTIR measurements of HF, HCl and ClONO2 to discuss the airborne observations with regard to the partitioning of inorganic chlorine.From mid-December until the end of January, MIPAS measured a stable ClONO2 collar with constantly low column amounts inside the polar vortex and maxima at the edge. This observation reflected widespread conversion of ClONO2 to reactive chlorine inside the vortex for at least six weeks. In good accordance, the ground stations measured low in-vortex HCl and ClONO2 column amounts and conversion of HCl into ClONO2 in the region of the ClONO2 maxima. In the first week of February the ClONO2 amounts started to increase in the edge region as well as inside the vortex. Between March 21 and 27, just one week after the last cold period, MIPAS observed exclusively high ClONO2 column amounts inside the vortex, indicating fast deactivation of active chlorine. In the same period the ground stations measured an excess of ClONO2 over HCl. Further, the high ClONO2 implies that the polar vortex was renoxified in March. Lower ClONO2 values, observed inside the vortex on the flights of April 5 and 8, and an increased HCl/ClONO2 ratio, measured from ground, marked the starting redistribution within the chlorine reservoir species to the photochemically more stable HCl.In February, March and April, MIPAS observed mixing of ClONO2-rich air masses with midlatitude air at the vortex edge. A very clear event happened on March 27. On this flight a distinct ClONO2 minimum was measured at the vortex edge, which was closely correlated with a filament of midlatitude air observed by OLEX (Ozone Lidar EXperiment) onboard the Transall.     

Calculating Historical Contributions To Climate Change – Discussing The ‘Brazilian Proposal’

This paper discusses methodological issues relevant to the calculation of historical responsibility of countries for climate change (‘The Brazilian Proposal’). Using a simple representation of the climate system, the paper compares contributions to climate change using different indicators: current radiative forcing, current GWP-weighted emissions, radiative forcing from increased concentrations, cumulative GWP-weighted emissions, global-average surface-air temperature increase and two new indicators: weighted concentrations (analogue to GWP-weighted emissions) and integrated temperature increase. Only the last two indicators are at the same time ‘backward looking’ (take into account historical emissions), ‘backward discounting’ (early emissions weigh less, depending on the decay in the atmosphere) and ‘forward looking’ (future effects of the emissions are considered) and are comparable for all gases. Cumulative GWP-weighted emissions are simple to calculate but are not ‘backward discounting’. ‘Radiative forcing’ and ‘temperature increase’ are not ‘forward looking’. ‘Temperature increase’ discounts the emissions of the last decade due to the slow response of the climate system. It therefore gives low weight to regions that have recently significantly increased emissions. Results of the five different indicators are quite similar for large groups (but possibly not for individual countries): industrialized countries contributed around 60% to today’s climate change, developing countries around 40% (using the available data for fossil, industrial and forestry CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O). The paper further argues including non-linearities of the climate system or using a simplified linear system is a political choice. The paper also notes that results of contributions to climate change need to be interpreted with care: Countries that developed early benefited economically, but have high historical emission, and countries developing at a later period can profit from developments in other countries and are therefore likely to have a lower contribution to climate change.