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681.
682.
Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
L. Ruby Leung Yun Qian Xindi Bian Warren M. Washington Jongil Han John O. Roads 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):75-113
To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (20 years) and three future(2040–2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper describes the regional simulations and focuses on the hydroclimate conditions in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and Sacramento-San Joaquin River (SSJ) Basin. Results based on global and regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1 to 2.5 °C strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack was about70% as indicated by the regional simulations. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation increased by 5 to 15 mm/day (15–20%) along theCascades and the Sierra. The warming resulted in increased rainfall at the expense of reduced snowfall, and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the CRB, these changes were accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induced higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the CRB and SSJ basin were affected mainly by changes in surface temperature, which were statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, while spatially incoherent, were not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer. Because snow and runoff are highly sensitive tospatial distributions of temperature and precipitation, this study shows that (1) downscaling provides more realistic estimates of hydrologic impacts in mountainous regions such as the western U.S., and (2) despite relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation, changes in snowpack and runoff can be much larger on monthly to seasonal time scales because the effects of temperature and precipitation are integrated over time and space through various surface hydrological and land-atmosphere feedback processes. Although the results reported in this study were derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations driven by a global climate model that displays low climate sensitivity compared with most other models, climate change was found to significantly affect water resources in the western U.S. by the mid twenty-first century. 相似文献
683.
684.
Modeling photochemistry in the stratosphere requires solution of the equationof radiative transfer over an extreme range of wavelengths and atmosphericconditions, from transmission through the Schumann–Runge bands ofO2 in the mesosphere, to multiple scattering from troposphericclouds and aerosols. The complexity and range of conditions makes photolysiscalculations in 3-D chemical transport models computationally expensive. Thisstudy pesents a fast and accurate numerical method, Fast-J2, for calculatingphotolysis rates (J-values) and the deposition of solar flux in stratosphere.Fast-J2 develops an optimized, super-wide 11-bin quadrature for wavelengthsfrom 177 to 291 nm that concatenates with the 7-bin quadrature (291–850nm) already developed for the troposphere as Fast-J. Below 291 nm the effectsof Rayleigh scattering are implemented as a pseudo-absorption, and above 291nm the full multiple-scattering code of Fast-J is used. Fast-J2 calculates themean ultraviolet-visible radiation field for these 18 wavelength binsthroughout the stratosphere, and thus new species and new cross sections canbe readily implemented. In comparison with a standard, high-resolution,multiple-scattering photolysis model, worst-case errors in Fast-J2 do notexceed 5% over a wide range of solar zenith angles, altitudes(0–60 km), latitudes, and seasons where the rates are important inphotochemistry. 相似文献
685.
对近30年南极海冰密集度资料的EOF和SVD分析,发现南极地区在罗斯海外围和别林斯高晋海的海冰密集度场存在着“翘翘板”的变化特征,并与ENSO有密切联系。由此定义两个海冰关键区的差值为南极海冰涛动指数(ASOI),ASOI超前SOI和Nino3指数2个月时,其正、负相关系数达到最大,并通过α=0.001的信度检验。ASOI高、低指数阶段对应的南半球海平面气温、气压场和风场的合成分析表明,海冰关键区的异常变化可能引起温度、气压、风场的响应而影响南太平洋的洋流,进而对ENSO的发生、发展产生影响。 相似文献
686.
北京大气边界层中风和温度廓线的观测研究 总被引:29,自引:4,他引:29
为了研究冬季北京城区大气边界层结构的特征,分别在城区和郊区4个观测点利用系留气艇在2001年1月5~13日和2月21~28日进行了大气廓线探测,并分析了温度和风廓线垂直变化的基本特征.初步结果显示城市热岛效应十分明显,热岛强度随高度增加而递减,近地层热岛强度在晴天最大可达到4℃左右.除了近地层郊区的风速大于城区外,城区和郊区风速的垂直分布特征有较大差异.在100~200m高度以下,城区和郊区风速和风向随高度分布都出现了明显的拐点,300 m以上高度风向和风速基本趋于一致,表明城区和郊区的风廓线均受到城市覆盖层的影响.随着北京市区的规模不断扩大,在今后探测中应考虑郊区测点的代表性. 相似文献
687.
A comprehensive physical pattern of land-air dynamic and thermal structure on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11
According to the boundary layer observations of three stations (Garze, Damxung and Qamdu) and relevant earth satellite, radiosonde and surface observations during the intensive observational period (IOP) of the second Tibetan (Qinghai-Xizang) Plateau Experiment of atmospheric science (TIPEX), the land-air physical process and dynamic model on the Tibetan Plateau were comprehensively analyzed in this study. The dynamic characteristics of boundary layer and the rules of turbulent motion on the plateau were illustrated. The characteristics of distributions of wind speed and direction with mutiple-layer structure and deep convective mixed layer on the plateau, the strong buoyancy effect in turbulent motion on the plateau on which the air density is obviously smaller than on the plain, and the Ekman spiral and its dynamic pump effect of the plateau deep boundary layer have been found. The local static distribution of water vapor and the horizontal advection of water vapor in the plateau boundary layer were studied. The abnomal thermodynamic structure on the plateau surface and boundary layer, including the plateau strong radiation phenomenon and strong heating source characteristics of the middle plateau, was also analyzed. The authors synthesized the above dynamic and thermodynamic structures of both surface and boundary layers on the plateau and posed the comprehensive physical model of the turbulence and convective mixture mechanism on the plateau boundary layer. The characteristics of formation, development and movement for convective cloud cluster over the plateau influencing floods in the Yangtze River area of China were studied. The conceptual model of dynamic and thermodynamic structures of turbulent motion and convective plume related to the frequent occurrence of "pop-corn-like" cloud system is given as well. 相似文献
688.
学习向量量化(LVQ)在地震和爆破识别中的应用 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
介绍了竞争神经网络和学习向量量化(LVQ)算法。此算法应用于对北京及周围地区地震和爆破的识别中,在对38个事件的应用中,得到的结果是,误识为3个,结果较好,说明在识别中是有效的。 相似文献
689.
OBSERVATIONAL STUDY OF MERIDIONAL VARIATION OF UV-B RADIATION DURING VOYAGES TO THE ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC REGIONS*
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Based on 1999-2000 observations made by the first Arctic and sixteenth Antactic scientific voyages,a study is undertaken about the meridional surface UV-B (B band ultraviolet rays) variations in 75°N-70°S.It is mitigated as a function of latitudes and marked by lower radiation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than over the Southern Hemisphere (SH),with its daily course basically similar to that of total radiation.Around polar summer noon hours (localtime) and where ice albedo is maximum,the strongest UV-B irradiance on the surface perpendicular to sun's beams as found at equatorial latitudes is measured sometimes.In the areas near Zhongshan Station the increase of surface UV-B radiation shows a close relation to the decrease of ozone in the higher atmosphere but it has a less intimate relation with its concentration at ground. 相似文献
690.
A small isolated outlier of Lower Oligocene chalk, which grades upwards into what was originally a sandy marl, has been truncated by a paleokarst surface, which is overlain by cross-bedded, well-sorted glauconitic sands. A sandy clay horizon (probably originally tuffaceous) and a basaltic lava flow of probable Miocene age cap the local sequence. Below the paleokarst surface and roughly parallel to it, the original sediment has been intensely altered to an average depth of 1.5 m. The alteration front is sharply defined, even where it extends along the walls of glauconitic sand-filled fissures in the chalk.In the alteration zone, the chalk has been entirely replaced by silica (opal-CT, largely in the form of lepispheres). The calcareous fraction of the marl has been replaced by montmorillonite and clinoptilolite. Rounded gravel clasts (largely basaltic) in the base of the overlying glauconitic sands also have been replaced (by montmorillonite), which suggests that all alteration followed deposition of the sands. However, neither the glauconite nor any other mineral in the sands appears highly altered. Similarly, the quartz grains show no evidence of dissolution or silica precipitation. Preservation of most silica sponge spicules, the only siliceous microfossils in the chalk, indicates that the source of the silica was extraneous to the carbonate sediments.Migrating interstitial liquid, largely confined to the sands between the impervious cap of sandy clay plus basalt and the porous but less permeable chalk, is inferred to have been the causal agent for the replacement. Silica, and any other components necessary for the formation of opal-CT, montmorillonite and clinoptilolite, were probably derived by chemical alteration of the capping volcanics in a groundwater regimen. Replacement reactions in the chalk and marl presumably were dependent on the original presence of calcium carbonate, and apart from montmorillonitization of volcanic material, occurred only where this compound was present. 相似文献