Global structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillations during two recent contrasting summer monsoon seasons over India

Summary The global nature of the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) have been investigated by applying a frequency filter to daily data for the summer monsoon months (June to September) during two contrasting years—1987, a deficient monsoon year and 1988, an excess monsoon year. Several meteorological parameters at five levels in the troposphere have been examined. Regions with large amplitude of these oscillations are isolated for each year. The results indicate that the global spatial distribution of these oscillations is more in a deficient year than in an excess year, in particular over the Indian subcontinent and the EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions. The principal modes of variability during these two years have been investigated through Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The first two eigenmodes of 850 hPa zonal wind explain nearly 50% of the variance. The dipole type of structure between the Indian and the Pacific region is more apparent in 1987 than in 1988. Time-longitude cross sections of the filtered zonal wind over the equatorial regions clearly show that eastward propagation is detected in 1987, but is virtually absent in 1988. It is also seen that the 30–60 day filtered winds are stronger during the monsoon of 1987 than in 1988.     

Consequences of CP-violation in cosmic-ray sources

In this paper we show that CP-violation is operating in most cosmic-ray sources such as black holes, active galactic nuclei, supernova remnants, and that this leads to the in-equality of the electron—positron component of cosmic rays.Further implications of this result are also discussed.     

Water level fluctuations due to earthquakes in Koyna-Warna region,India

Earthquakes cause a variety of hydrological phenomena, including changes in the ground water levels in bore wells. The Koyna region in the peninsular shield of India, hitherto considered stable in terms of seismic activity, has been active since 1967. More recently, the earthquakes have been localized to the newly impounded Warna reservoir, which is located south of Koyna, where a burst of seismicity occurred in 1993. The region continues to remain seismically active even after four decades. Twenty-one bore wells were drilled around the seismic source volume in the region to observe water level changes resulting from earthquake phenomena. Our studies have shown coseismic anomalous water level changes to be associated with the moderate earthquakes of April 25, 1997 and February 11, 1998. Our results show that changes in the ground water level in bore wells are correlated with micro-earthquake activity, both preceding and following moderately sized earthquakes. The results have implications in enhancing our understanding of earthquake mechanisms.     

Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-to-seasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982–2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21     

Effect of Corrugation and Reinforcement on the Dispersion of SH-wave Propagation in Corrugated Poroelastic Layer Lying over a Fibre-reinforced Half-space

The presence of porosity and reinforcement in a medium is an important factor affecting seismic wave propagation and plays vital role in many geophysical prospects. Also, the presence of salt and ore deposits, mountains, basins, mountain roots, etc. is responsible for the existence of corrugated boundary surfaces of constituent layers. Such facts brought motivation for the present paper which deals with the propagation of SH-wave in a heterogeneous fluid-saturated poroelastic layer with corrugated boundaries lying over an initially stressed fibre-reinforced elastic halfspace. Closed form of dispersion relation has been obtained and is found in well agreement to classical Love wave equation for isotropic case. The effect of corrugation, wave number, undulation, position parameter, horizontal compressive/tensile initial stress and heterogeneity on phase velocity has been analysed through numerical computation and graphical illustration. Moreover, comparative study exploring the effect of presence and absence of reinforcement in half-space on dispersion curve is the major highlight of the current study.     

Some Haematological Effects of Crude Oil on Freshwater Catfish,Heteropneustes fossilis (BLOCH)

The exposure of catfish, Heteropneustes fossilis to different concentrations (200, 500, 700, 1000, 1500, 2000 ppm) of crude oil extract for a varying period (for up to 48 h in lethal extract and 360 h in sublethal one) resulted into a number of haematological changes. All the parameters taken here were found to have been increased except the haemoglobin level which fell down to 14.3 % in an acute lethal concentration (2000 ppm) after 48 h of exposure. The haematocrit value increased significantly (12 %) in 2000 ppm. The blood sugar level showed hyperglycemia in all the concentrations. The increase in ascorbic acid (28 %) was pronounced in higher concentrations. Changes occurring in different parameters seemed to be reversible as all the parameters returned to their normal levels after returning the fish to normal media, except the nuclear swelling which did not resume the normal functioning even after a prolonged treatment (1 month or more) in the recovery jar. The haematological effects shown by the crude oil resembled partly those kept in severe hypoxic conditions and partly to the fishes poisoned by heavy metals (Cu and Zn). On the basis of results obtained in this investigation, crude oil may be categorised as a complex toxic agent.     

Spatial model integration for shallow landslide susceptibility and its runout using a GIS-based approach in Yongin,Korea

Rainfall-triggered shallow landslide is very common in Korean mountains and the socioeconomic impact is much higher than in the past due to population pressure in hazardous zones. Present study is an attempt toward the development of a methodology for the integration of shallow landslide susceptibility zones and runout zones that could be reached by mobilized mass. Landslide occurrence areas in Yongin were determined based on the interpretation of aerial photographs and extensive field surveys. Nineteen landslide-related factors maps were collected and analysed in geographic information system environment. Among 109 identified landslides, about 85% randomly selected training landslide data from inventory map was used to generate an evidential belief function model and remaining 15% landslides were used to validate the shallow landslide susceptibility map. The resulting susceptibility map had a success rate of 89.2% and a predictive accuracy of 92.1%. A runout propagation from high susceptible area was obtained from the modified multiple-flow direction algorithm. A matrix was used to integrate the shallow landslide susceptibility classes and the runout probable zone. Thus, each pixel had a susceptibility class in relation to its failure probability and runout susceptibility class. The study of landslide potential and its propagation can be used to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.     

Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models

Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the future (2021–2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The model validation results (1989–2008) show that the models simulate seasonality and spatial distribution of extreme temperature events better than precipitation. The models are able to capture fine topographical detail in the spatial distribution of indices based on their ability to resolve processes at a higher regional resolution. Future simulations of extreme temperature indices generally agree with expected warming in the Ganges basin, with considerable seasonal and spatial variation. Significantly warmer summers in the central part of the basin along with basin-wide increase in night temperature are expected during the summer and monsoon months. An increase in heavy precipitation indices during monsoon, coupled with extended periods without precipitation during the winter months; indicates an increase in the incidence of extreme events.     

Mass balance and morphological evolution of the Dokriani Glacier,central Himalaya,India during 1999–2014

Glaciological mass balance(MB)is considered the most direct,undelayed and unfiltered response of the glaciers to climatic perturbations.However,it may inherit errors associated with stake underrepresentation,averaging over the entire glacier and human bias.Therefore,proper validation of glaciological MB with geodetic MB is highly recommended by the World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS).The present study focuses on the Dokriani Glacier,central Himalaya which is one of the bench-mark glaciers in the region and has glaciological MB records from 1993 to 2013 with intermittent gaps.In the present study,firstly the glaciological MB series is extended to 2014 i.e.,field-based MB for one more year is computed and,to compare with it,the geodetic MB is computed for the 1999–2014 period using high resolution Cartosat-1 digital elevation model(DEM)and SRTM DEM.Finally,the study assesses the regional representation of the Dokriani Glacier in terms of MB and evaluates the influence of the MB regime on its morphological evolution.Results show that the average glaciological MB(-0.34±0.2 m water equivalent(w.e.)y-1)is more negative than the geodetic MB(-0.23±0.1 m w.e.y-1)for the 1999–2014 period.This is likely because of the partial representation of glacier margins in the glaciological MB,where melting is strikingly low owing to thick debris cover(>30 cm).In contrast,geodetic MB considers all marginal pixels leading to a comparatively low MB.A comparative assessment shows that the MB of Dokriani Glacier is less negative(possibly due to its huge accumulation area)than most other glacier-specific and regional MBs,restricting it to be a representative glacier in the region.Moreover,continuous negative MB has brought a peculiar change in the epiglacial morphology in the lower tongue of the glacier as differential debris thickness-induced differential melting has turned the glacier surface into a concave one.This concavity has led to development of a large(10–20 m deep)supraglacial channel which is expanding incessantly.The supraglacial channel is also connected with the snout wall and accelerates terminus disintegration.Given the total thickness of about 30–50 m in the lower glacier tongue,downwasting at its current pace,deepening/widening of supraglacial channel coupled with rapid terminus retreat may lead to the complete vanishing of the lower one km glacier tongue.     

Application of the Fourier method to the numerical solution of moving boundary problem in heat conduction

An algorithm for the solution of a nonlinear problem of phase boundary movement and evolution of temperature distribution due to the perturbation in the basal heat flux has been discussed. The reduction of the problem to a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with the help of a Fourier series method leads to a stiff system. This stiffness is taken care of by the use of a modified Euler’s method. Various cases of basal heat flow variation have been considered to show the performance and stability of the technique for such a nonlinear system. The first case of step-wise function is taken to analyse the performance of the technique, and the study has been extended to other general cases of linear increase, periodic variation, and box and triangular function type variations in the heat flux. In the step-wise case the phase boundary attains a constant position rapidly if the supplied heat flux is sufficiently large. The effect of periodicity in the heat flow is clearly depicted in the phase boundary movement, where the phase boundary oscillates about the mean position at large times. The absence of any constant level in the case of linear increase in heat flux is due to a very large value of heat flux. In the cases of box car and triangular heat flux the boundary starts moving downward after the cessation of excess heat flux but does not immediately return to its original preperturbation state, instead approaches it at large times. This technique may be applied to more general cases of heat flow variation.