Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.     

Evaluation of significant sources influencing the variation of physico-chemical parameters in Port Blair Bay,South Andaman,India by using multivariate statistics

Port Blair is the capital city of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the union territory of India. More than 50% of the population of these islands lives around Port Blair Bay. Therefore the anthropogenic effects in the bay water were studied for monitoring purpose from seven stations. Physico-chemical parameters of seawater were analyzed in samples collected once in every 3 months for 2 years from seven sampling stations located in Port Blair Bay, South Andaman Island to evaluate the spatial and tidal variation. Cluster analysis and factor analysis were applied to the experimental data in an attempt to understand the sources of variation of physico-chemical parameters. In cluster analysis, the stations Junglighat Bay and Phoenix Bay having high anthropogenic influence formed a separate group. The factors obtained from factor analysis indicated that the parameters responsible for physico-chemical variations are mainly related to land run-off, sewage outfall and tidal flow.     

Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models

Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.     

Estimation of Above Ground Biomass for Central Indian Deciduous Forests Using ALOS PALSAR L-Band Data

Reliable and accurate estimates of tropical forest above ground biomass (AGB) are important to reduce uncertainties in carbon budgeting. In the present study we estimated AGB of central Indian deciduous forests of Madhya Pradesh (M.P.) state, India, using Advanced Land Observing Satellite – Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS-PALSAR) L-band data of year 2010 in conjunction with field based AGB estimates using empirical models. Digital numbers of gridded 1?×?1° dual polarization (HH & HV) PALSAR mosaics for the study area were converted to normalized radar cross section (sigma naught - σ⁰). A total of 415 sampling plots (0.1 ha) data collected over the study area during 2009–10 was used in the present study. Plot-level AGB estimates using volume equations representative to the study area were computed using field inventory data. The plot-level AGB estimates were empirically modeled with the PALSAR backscatter information in HH, HV and their ratios from different forest types of the study area. The HV backscatter information showed better relation with field based AGB estimates with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.509 which was used to estimate spatial AGB of the study area. Results suggested a total AGB of 367.4 Mt for forests of M.P. state. Further, validation of the model was carried out using observed vs. predicted AGB estimates, which suggested a root mean square error (RMSE) of ±19.32 t/ha. The model reported robust and defensible relation for observed vs. predicted AGB values of the study area.     

Free-convective flow of non-Newtonian fluid with heat sources

An analytical study is performed to examine the effects of temperature-dependent heat source on free-convective flow of non-Newtonian fluid (Walters's liquidB). The expression for the velocity field has been obtained by the Laplace transform technique. The influence of the various parameter entering into the problem is extensively discussed.     

Role of Vertical Resolution in Numerical Models Towards the Intensification,Structure and Track of Tropical Cyclones

The impact of vertical resolution on the evolution and movement of tropical cyclones was studied using NCAR MM5 model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km. Four numerical experiments were performed with different vertical resolutions, that is, with 23 vertical levels as control experiment, and 36 vertical levels with high resolution in the lower troposphere, 33 vertical levels with high resolution in the upper troposphere and 46 vertical levels with increased vertical resolution throughout the troposphere as relative to base experiment. The results indicate that increased vertical resolution in the lower troposphere produces efficient intensification and better structure in terms of eye and eyewall. Increased vertical resolution at lower levels improves the prediction of vertical shear of horizontal wind. Experiments with high resolution in the lower troposphere and high resolution throughout the troposphere simulate better track up to 72 hours.     

Forbush Decrease: A New Perspective with Classification

Sudden short-duration decreases in cosmic ray flux, known as Forbush decreases (FDs), are mainly caused by interplanetary disturbances. A generally accepted view is that the first step of an FD is caused by a shock sheath and the second step is due to the magnetic cloud (MC) of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). This simplistic picture does not consider several physical aspects, such as whether the complete shock sheath or MC (or only part of these) contributes to the decrease or the effect of internal structure within the shock-sheath region or MC. We present an analysis of 16 large (\({\geq}\,8 \%\)) FD events and the associated ICMEs, a majority of which show multiple steps in the FD profile. We propose a reclassification of FD events according to the number of steps observed in their respective profiles and according to the physical origin of these steps. This study determines that 13 out of 16 major events (\({\sim}\,81\%\)) can be explained completely or partially on the basis of the classic FD model. However, it cannot explain all the steps observed in these events. Our analysis clearly indicates that not only broad regions (shock sheath and MC), but also localized structures within the shock sheath and MC have a significant role in influencing the FD profile. The detailed analysis in the present work is expected to contribute toward a better understanding of the relationship between FD and ICME parameters.     

Long term variations in solar flare activity

A statistical analysis of the contemporary (1954-1975) solar flare particle events has been made for the parametersF (integrated, proton fluence in cm^-2 in an event with kinetic energy above 10 MeV) andR ₀ (the characteristic rigidity). These data are compared with the long-term averaged values determined from stable- and radio-nuclide measurements of lunar samples. The analysis shows that the ancient solar flare proton spectrum was harder (higher R₀ values) compared to that observed in contemporary flares. A similar analysis can not be made for the mean long-term averaged flux (ˉJ, cm^-2 S^-1), since the contemporary averages suffer from an uncertainty due to the statistics of a single event. However, the average flux estimates for time durations 〈T〉 exceeding 10³ yr, are free from such uncertainties. The long-term averaged ˉJ values obtained over different time scales (10⁴ - 10⁶ yr) suggest a possible periodic variation in solar flare activity, with enhanced flux level during the last 10⁵ yr. The available data rule out the occurrence of giant flares, with proton fluence exceeding 10¹⁵ cm^-2 during the last million years.     

Resistivity profiles over quartz reefs of Dhanbad

Summary A number of resistivity profiles over quartz reefs have been taken using Wenner and Schlumberger configurations around Dhanbad in order tofind the potential of these for water accumulation. These reefs give rise to both resistivity highs and lows as compared to the background. The results are discussed in the light of known theories. Some suitable sites for water accumulation have been delineated.