Confidence Intervals of Quantiles in Hydrology Computed by an Analytical Method

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^_T) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing that the quantile estimator is normally distributed. In this study, it is shown that the confidence interval follows a normal distribution only in the central part of the distribution. The real confidence limits are computed analytically, by defining and integrating the probability density function of the confidence interval. The results with an important number of hydrologic samples show that the upper confidence limits are significantly underestimated towards the tail of the distribution, when determined using the normality approximation for the quantile estimator.     

兰州盛夏大降水短期预报

根据预报员的思路，运用专家系统匹配方法，依次对大降水的环流场、影响系统、高低空物理量配置等建立推理规则，然后输入计算机算出结果。     

我国西北地区“94.4”沙尘暴成因探讨

１９９４年４月３日～１２日，在我国西北地区发生了历史上罕见的以浮尘天气为主的沙尘暴。本文通过对造成这次灾害天气过程的大尺度环境形势、主要天气系统和前期气候背景与下垫面条件的全面系统分析，揭示了有别于其它沙尘暴天气过程的某些成因机制以及大风、浮尘、扬沙和沙暴等天气观象的日变化特征。     

A simultaneous spectroscopic and photometric study of two eclipsing binaries: V566 Oph and V972 Her

In this study, we have performed simultaneous solutions of light and radial velocity curves of two eclipsing binary systems, V566 Oph and V972 Her. We observed both systems spectroscopically with a very recently installed spectrograph on the 40 cm telescope, T40, located in Ankara University Kreiken Observatory (AUKR), for the first time. We made use of the photometric data from the Hipparcos satellite for V972 Her, while we obtained the photometric observations of V566 Oph by using the 35 cm telescope, T35, located also in our observatory campus. We derived the absolute parameters for both systems and discussed their evolutionary states. In addition to the simultaneous analysis, we have also analyzed the change in mid-eclipse times for V566 Oph, and found cyclic variations, for which we have discussed light-time effect and magnetic activity as their potential origin, superimposed on a secular change due to a mass transfer between the components of the binary.     

Seismic attenuation,normal moveout stretch,and low‐frequency shadows underlying bottom simulating reflector events

In many cases, the seismic response of bottom‐simulating reflectors is characterised by low frequencies called “low‐frequency shadow”. Generally, this phenomenon is interpreted as attenuation due to partial saturation with free gas. Actually, this frequency loss may have multiple causes, with a normal moveout stretch as a possible candidate. To analyse this phenomenon, we compute synthetic seismograms by assuming a lossy bottom‐simulating layer, with varying quality factor and thickness, bounded by the upper hydrate‐brine/gas‐brine and lower gas‐brine/brine interfaces. First, we estimate the shift of the centroid frequency of the power spectrum as a function of the travelled distance of the seismic pulse. Then, we perform one‐dimensional numerical experiments to quantify the loss of frequency of the seismic event below the bottom‐simulating reflector as a function of the quality factor of the bottom‐simulating layer and its thickness (due to wave interference). Then, we compute shot gathers to obtain the stacked section, with and without the normal moveout stretch correction and with and without the presence of wave attenuation in the bottom‐simulating layer. The results indicate that the low‐frequency shadow due to the normal moveout stretch is stronger than that due to attenuation and may constitute a false indicator of the presence of gas. In fact, often, the low‐frequency shadow overlies events with higher frequencies, in contradiction with the physics of wave propagation. This is particularly evident when the low‐frequency shadow is so extensive that the presence of high frequencies below cannot be justified by the acquisition geometry.     

Rock physics model of tight oil siltstone for seismic prediction of brittleness

Tight oil siltstones are rocks with complex structure at pore scale and are characterized by low porosity and low permeability at macroscale. The production of tight oil siltstone reservoirs can be increased by hydraulic fracturing. For optimal fracking results, it is desirable to map the ability to fracture based on seismic data prior to fracturing. Brittleness is currently thought to be a key parameter for evaluating the ability to fracture. To link seismic information to the brittleness distribution, a rock physics model is required. Currently, there exists no commonly accepted rock physics model for tight oil siltstones. Based on the observed correlation between porosity and mineral composition and known microstructure of tight oil siltstone in Daqing oilfield of Songliao basin, we develop a rock physics model by combining the Voigt–Reuss–Hill average, self-consistent approximation and differential effective medium theory. This rock physics model allows us to explore the dependence of the brittleness on porosity, mineral composition, microcrack volume fraction and microcrack aspect ratio. The results show that, as quartz content increases and feldspar content decreases, Young's modulus tends to increase and Poisson ratio decreases. This is taken as a signature of higher brittleness. Using well log data and seismic inversion results, we demonstrate the versatility of the rock physics template for brittleness prediction.     

Tropical Cyclone in the North of the South China Sea as a Factor Affecting the Structure of the Vietnamese Current

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Tropical cyclones play a significant role in the formation of the hydrodynamic regime of the South China Sea, including its western part, which is...     

平面P波在饱和半空间中洞室周围的散射(I):解析解

利用波函数展开法给出了入射平面P波在饱和半空间中圆形洞室周围散射问题的一个解析解。半空间假定为无粘性流体饱和介质,满足Biot理论。采用一种基于实验数据的孔隙率和模量之间的线性关系来确定Biot模型中的介质参数。解答考虑了透水边界和非透水边界两种情况。对边界条件进行了数值检验,结果表明,随着级数截断项数的增大,边界残量衰减很快。解答为进一步研究入射波频率和角度、边界渗透条件、孔隙率、泊松比等参数对散射的影响奠定了基础。     

Hydrocarbon composition and distribution in a coastal region under influence of oil production in northeast Brazil

Waters and sediments from the Potiguar Basin (NE Brazilian coast) were investigated for the presence and nature of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and aliphatic hydrocarbons. The region receives treated produced waters through a submarine outfall system serving the industrial district. The total dispersed/dissolved concentrations in the water column ranged from 10-50 ng L⁻¹ for ∑16PAH and 5-10 μg L⁻¹ for total aliphatic hydrocarbons. In the sediments, hydrocarbon concentrations were low (0.5-10 ng g⁻¹for ∑16PAH and 0.01-5.0 μg g⁻¹ for total aliphatic hydrocarbons) and were consistent with the low organic carbon content of the local sandy sediments. These data indicate little and/or absence of anthropogenic influence on hydrocarbon distribution in water and sediment. Therefore, the measured values may be taken as background values for the region and can be used as future reference following new developments of the petroleum industry in the Potiguar Basin.