藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流形成的气候因素与发展趋势

冰湖溃决泥石流是高山冰湖溃决洪水引起的突发性泥石流,是一种自然灾害现象,对藏东南社会、经济危害严重。文中根据实地调查及相关资料,分析了气温和降水对冰湖溃决和冰湖溃决泥石流的影响以及冰湖溃决泥石流年内和年际的形成规律,并认为冰湖的溃决往往是由于异常气候条件造成的,冷湿的气候环境有利于冰川的积累。当气候转为湿热或干热,特别是气候突变异常年代,最易引起冰湖溃决泥石流。受西藏气候变化的影响,未来40年藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流的发展趋势呈抛物线"∩"型。     

Czech hydrometeorological institute limited-area operational forecast model

Summary The CHMI LAOFM is used in the daily routine of the Central Forecasting Office of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and some special results are transmitted to the regional offices. The model works in the region of Europe and the North Atlantic, uses conservative finite difference schemes and two types of semi-implicit schemes that allow effective model structurization in terms of programming language. The basic philosophy of the model is described.

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Surface flow boundary conditions in modeling land subsidence due to fluid withdrawal

Land subsidence due to subsurface fluid (water, gas, oil) withdrawal is often predicted by either finite element or finite difference numerical models based on coupled poroelastic theory, where the soil is represented as a semi-infinite medium bounded by the traction-free (ground) surface. One of the variables playing a most important role on the final outcome is the flow condition used on the traction-free boundary, which may be assumed as either permeable or impermeable. Although occasionally justified, the assumption of no-flow surface seems to be in general rather unrealistic. A permeable boundary where the fluid pressure is fixed to the external atmospheric pressure appears to be more appropriate. This paper addresses the response, in terms of land subsidence, obtained with a coupled poroelastic finite element model that simulates a distributed pumping from a horizontal aquifer confined between two relatively impervious layers, and takes either a permeable boundary surface, i.e., constant hydraulic potential, or an impermeable boundary, i.e., a zero Neumann flow condition. The analysis reveals that land subsidence is rather sensitive to the flow condition implemented on the traction-free boundary. In general, the no-flow condition leads to an overestimate of the predicted ground surface settlement, which could even be 1 order of magnitude larger than that obtained with the permeable boundary.     

Distribution of winter-spring snow over the Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with summer precipitation in Yangtze River

The distribution of winter-spring snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and its relationship with summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV) during 2003–2013 have been investigated with the moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer(MODIS) Terra data(MOD10A2) and precipitation observations. Results show that snow cover percentage(SCP) remains approximately 20% in winter and spring then tails off to below 5% with warmer temperature and snow melt in summer. The lower and highest percentages present a declining tendency while the middle SCP exhibits an opposite variation. The maximum value appears from the middle of October to March and the minimum emerges from July to August. The annual and winter-spring SCPs present a decreasing tendency. Snow cover is mainly situated in the periphery of the plateau and mountainous regions, and less snow in the interior of the plateau, basin and valley areas in view of snow cover frequency(SCF) over the TP. Whatever annual or winter-spring snow cover, they all have remarkable declining tendency during 2003–2013, and annual snow cover presents a decreasing trend in the interior of the TP and increasing trend in the periphery of the TP. The multi-year averaged eight-day SCP is negatively related to mean precipitation in the MLYRV. Spring SCP is negatively related to summer precipitation while winter SCP is positively related to summer precipitation in most parts of the MLYRV. Hence, the influence of winter snow cover on precipitation is much more significant than that in spring on the basis of correlation analysis. The oscillation of SCF from southeast to northwest over the TP corresponds well to the beginning, development and cessation of the rain belt in eastern China.     

Development of local authorities in EU-member states between 1950–2011

The aim of the submitted study was to illustrate the development of the number of local authorities in all current EU states in the long period between 1950 and 2011 comprehensively, and also by particular decades, thus demonstrating the originality and uniqueness of the topic analysed in this context. Thus, we obtain a more detailed picture of the development of the number of local authorities in EU countries, and we can monitor how local authorities within a specific country gradually developed. (The stabilisation of the number of local units and an increase or gradual or sudden drop in local units are shown, for example). A sudden drop in local units can be associated with significant administrative reforms and with the development of large units of the so-called municipalities. When it becomes necessary to merge local authorities, many countries look to other countries where extensive reforms took place in the past for inspiration. However, it must be borne in mind that in a general European context, we cannot apply a universal system of public administration reforms, and solutions in the form of these reforms inspired by other countries may not always be appropriate.     

藏北高原蒸发皿蒸发量及其影响因素的变化特征

采用气候倾向率方法,对藏北高原1971-2006年6个气象站年、季小型蒸发皿蒸发量及其影响气候因子的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:近36年藏北高原年蒸发皿蒸发量各站点均呈现显著的减少趋势,平均减少61.7mm/10a(通过99%显著性检验),以夏季减幅最明显。就地域分布而言,蒸发皿蒸发量的下降主要表现在藏北高原的中西部。蒸发量减少幅度随经度的增加减小,随海拔高度的升高而加大。影响蒸发皿蒸发量的主要气候因子日照时数、平均风速呈现显著下降趋势,平均相对湿度、降水量表现为显著增加,平均气温显著升高,平均最低气温的升温速率(0.54℃/10a)明显比平均最高气温的升温速率(0.17℃/10a)大,导致气温日较差的减小(-0.37℃/10a)。藏北高原平均气温日较差和日照时数的显著减小,以及平均相对湿度的明显增加可能是蒸发皿蒸发量显著下降的主要原因,降水量的增加和平均风速的明显减小在蒸发量减少趋势中的作用也不可忽视。     

Hydrochemical and isotopic properties of Heybeli geothermal area (Afyon,Turkey)

The thermal waters at the Heybeli (K?z?lkirse) low-temperature geothermal field located in the Afyonkarahisar Province (western Turkey) are discharged from Paleozoic recrystallized limestone. The temperature, specific electrical conductivity, and pH values of the thermal waters are within the range of 28.9 to 54.7 °C, 587 to 3580 μS/cm, and 6.32 to 7.37, respectively. The Heybeli geothermal system is fed by meteoric waters. The waters are heated at depth by high geothermal gradient caused by the neotectonic activity in the deep and ascend to the surface through fractures and faults by convection. The thermal waters are of Na-Ca-HCO₃-SO₄ type and their chemical composition of the waters is mainly controlled by water-rock interaction and mixing processes. The δ¹⁸O, δ²H and tritium compositions show that the thermal waters are of meteoric origin and the residence time at the reservoir is longer than 50 years. Isotope data (δ³⁴S and δ¹³C) indicate recrystallized limestones as origin of CO₂ and structural substitution of sulfate into marine carbonates (CAS) as origin of sulfur. Chemical, \( {\updelta}^{18}{\mathrm{O}}_{\left({\mathrm{SO}}_4-{\mathrm{H}}_2\mathrm{O}\right)} \) isotope geothermometers and mineral equilibrium diagrams applied to thermal waters gave reservoir temperatures between 62 and 115 °C. Saturation index calculations show that the most expected minerals causing scaling at outflow conditions during the production and utilization of Heybeli geothermal waters are calcite, aragonite, dolomite, quartz, and chalcedony.     

Determination of Electron Density and Filling Factor for Soft X-Ray Flare Kernels

In the standard method of electron density determination for soft X-ray (SXR) flare kernels, it is necessary to assume what the extent is of a kernel along the line of sight. This is a source of significant uncertainty of the obtained densities.