Assessment of paleo-recharge under the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet and its impact on regional groundwater flow in the northern Baltic Artesian Basin using a numerical model

The study investigates the mechanism of glacial meltwater recharge under the Fennosciandian Ice Sheet during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and its impact on regional groundwater flow in the northern Baltic Artesian Basin (BAB) in Estonia and Latvia. The current hypothesis is that a flow reversal occurred in the BAB due to subglacial recharge during the LGM. This hypothesis is supported by an extensive dataset of geochemical and isotopic measurements in the groundwater of northern Estonia, exhibiting significant depletion in δ¹⁸O with respect to modern precipitation. To verify the consistency of this hypothesis and better understand groundwater flow dynamics during the LGM period, a numerical model is developed for this area. Two cross-sectional models have been created across the northern BAB, in which groundwater flow and the transport of δ¹⁸O have been simulated from the beginning of the LGM to present-day. Several simulations were performed with different subglacial boundary conditions, to investigate the uncertainty related to subglacial recharge of meltwater during the LGM and the subsequent flow reversal in the northern BAB. Several simulations provide a satisfying fit between computed and observed values of δ¹⁸O, which means that the hypothesis of subglacial recharge of meltwater is consistent with δ¹⁸O distribution. The numerical model suggests that preservation of meltwater in northern Estonia is controlled by confining layers and the proximity to the outcrop area of aquifers, located in the Gulf of Finland. The results also suggest that glacial meltwater has been preserved under the Baltic Sea in the Gulf of Riga.     

Modelling environmentally friendly fairways using Lagrangian trajectories: a case study for the Gulf of Finland,the Baltic Sea

We address possibilities of minimising environmental risks using statistical features of current-driven propagation of adverse impacts to the coast. The recently introduced method for finding the optimum locations of potentially dangerous activities (Soomere et al. in Proc Estonian Acad Sci 59:156–165, 2010) is expanded towards accounting for the spatial distributions of probabilities and times for reaching the coast for passively advecting particles released in different sea areas. These distributions are calculated using large sets of Lagrangian trajectories found from Eulerian velocity fields provided by the Rossby Centre Ocean Model with a horizontal resolution of 2 nautical miles for 1987–1991. The test area is the Gulf of Finland in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The potential gain using the optimum fairways from the Baltic Proper to the eastern part of the gulf is an up to 44% decrease in the probability of coastal pollution and a similar increase in the average time for reaching the coast. The optimum fairways are mostly located to the north of the gulf axis (by 2–8 km on average) and meander substantially in some sections. The robustness of this approach is quantified as the typical root mean square deviation (6–16 km) between the optimum fairways specified from different criteria. Drastic variations in the width of the ‘corridors’ for almost optimal fairways (2–30 km for the average width of 15 km) signifies that the sensitivity of the results with respect to small changes in the environmental criteria largely varies in different parts of the gulf.