The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West: Introduction and Overview

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments.     

Excess of bottom-released methane in an Arctic shelf sea polynya in winter

Latent heat polynyas are regions generating strong ice formation, convection and extensive water mass formation. Here we report on the effects of these processes on resuspension of sediments and subsequent methane release from the seafloor and on the resulting excess methane concentration in surface water on a polar shelf during winter. The study is based on measurements of concentration and δ¹³C values of methane, water temperature, salinity, light transmission and sea ice data collected in March 2003 in Storfjorden, southern Svalbard. In winter, strong and persistent northeasterly winds create polynyas in eastern Storfjorden and cause ice formation. The resulting brine-enriched water cascades from the Storfjordbanken into the central depression thereby enhancing the turbulence near the seafloor. A distinct benthic nepheloid layer was observed reflecting the resuspension of sediments by the cascading dense bottom water. High concentrations of ¹³C-depleted methane suggest submarine discharge of methane with the resuspended sediments. As the source of the submarine methane, we propose recent bacterial methanogenesis near the sediment surface because of extremely high accumulation rates of organic carbon in Storfjorden. Convective mixing transports newly released methane from the bottom to the sea surface. This eventually results in an excess concentration in surface water with respect to the atmospheric equilibrium, and a sea-air flux of methane during periods of open water. When a new ice cover is formed, methane becomes trapped in the water column and subsequently oxidized. Thus, the residual methane is strongly enriched in ¹³C in relation to the δ¹³_CCH4${\delta }^{13}{\mathrm{C}}_{{\mathrm{CH}}_4}$ signature of atmospheric methane. Our results show that latent heat polynyas may induce a direct pathway for biogases like methane from sediments to the atmosphere through coupling of biogeochemical and oceanographic processes. Extrapolating these processes to all Arctic ocean polynyas, we estimate a transfer of CH₄ between 0.005 and 0.02 Tg yr⁻¹. This is not a large contribution but the fluxes from the polynyas are 20–200 times larger than the ocean average and the methane evasion process in polynyas is certainly one that can be altered under climate change.     

A Stream‐Based Methane Monitoring Approach for Evaluating Groundwater Impacts Associated with Unconventional Gas Development

Gaining streams can provide an integrated signal of relatively large groundwater capture areas. In contrast to the point‐specific nature of monitoring wells, gaining streams coalesce multiple flow paths. Impacts on groundwater quality from unconventional gas development may be evaluated at the watershed scale by the sampling of dissolved methane (CH₄) along such streams. This paper describes a method for using stream CH₄ concentrations, along with measurements of groundwater inflow and gas transfer velocity interpreted by 1‐D stream transport modeling, to determine groundwater methane fluxes. While dissolved ionic tracers remain in the stream for long distances, the persistence of methane is not well documented. To test this method and evaluate CH₄ persistence in a stream, a combined bromide (Br) and CH₄ tracer injection was conducted on Nine‐Mile Creek, a gaining stream in a gas development area in central Utah. A 35% gain in streamflow was determined from dilution of the Br tracer. The injected CH₄ resulted in a fivefold increase in stream CH₄ immediately below the injection site. CH₄ and δ¹³C_CH4 sampling showed it was not immediately lost to the atmosphere, but remained in the stream for more than 2000 m. A 1‐D stream transport model simulating the decline in CH₄ yielded an apparent gas transfer velocity of 4.5 m/d, describing the rate of loss to the atmosphere (possibly including some microbial consumption). The transport model was then calibrated to background stream CH₄ in Nine‐Mile Creek (prior to CH₄ injection) in order to evaluate groundwater CH₄ contributions. The total estimated CH₄ load discharging to the stream along the study reach was 190 g/d, although using geochemical fingerprinting to determine its source was beyond the scope of the current study. This demonstrates the utility of stream‐gas sampling as a reconnaissance tool for evaluating both natural and anthropogenic CH₄ leakage from gas reservoirs into groundwater and surface water.     

Transports of Nordic Seas water masses and excess SF6 through Fram Strait to the Arctic Ocean

To determine the exchanges between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait is one of the most important aspects, and one of the major challenges, in describing the circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. Especially the northward transport of Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the Nordic Seas into the Arctic Ocean is little known. In the two-ship study of the circulation in the Nordic Seas, Arctic Ocean - 2002, the Swedish icebreaker Oden operated in the ice-covered areas in and north of Fram Strait and in the western margins of Greenland and Iceland seas, while RV Knorr of Woods Hole worked in the ice free part of the Nordic Seas. Here two hydrographic sections obtained by Oden, augmented by tracer and velocity measurements with Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP), are examined. The first section, reaching from the Svalbard shelf across the Yermak Plateau, covers the region north of Svalbard where inflow to the Arctic Ocean takes place. The second, western, section spans the outflow area extending from west of the Yermak Plateau onto the Greenland shelf. Geostrophic and LADCP derived velocities are both used to estimate the exchanges of water masses between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. The geostrophic computations indicate a total flow of 3.6 Sv entering the Arctic on the eastern section. The southward flow on the western section is found to be 5.1 Sv. The total inflow to the Arctic Ocean obtained using the LADCP derived velocities is much larger, 13.6 Sv, and the southward transport on the western section is 13.7 Sv, equal to the northward transport north of Svalbard. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) originating from a tracer release experiment in the Greenland Sea in 1996 has become a marker for the circulation of AIW. From the geostrophic velocities we obtain 0.5 Sv and from the LADCP derived velocities 2.8 Sv of AIW flowing into the Arctic. The annual transport of SF₆ into the Arctic Ocean derived from geostrophy is 5 kg/year, which is of the same magnitude as the observed total annual transport into the North Atlantic, while the LADCP measurements (19 kg/year) imply that it is substantially larger. Little SF₆ was found on the western section, confirming the dominance of the Arctic Ocean water masses and indicating that the major recirculation in Fram Strait takes place farther to the south.     

Geochemistry, Geochronology and Isotopic Evolution of the Chewore-Rufunsa Terrane, Southern Irumide Belt: a Mesoproterozoic Continental Margin Arc

The southern Irumide Belt (SIB) is an ENE–WSW-trending,late Mesoproterozoic orogenic belt located between the Congo–Tanzania–Bangweulu(CTB) and Kalahari cratons in central southern Africa. It isseparated from the late Mesoproterozoic Irumide Belt (IB) tothe north by Permo-Triassic graben, raising the possibilitythat the younger rifts reactivated a suture between the twobelts that has been rendered cryptic as a result of youngerKaroo cover. Both belts are dominated by calc-alkaline gneisses,but in addition the SIB contains abundant metavolcanic and metasedimentaryrocks. In this study we present detailed geochemical, isotopicand geochronological data for volcanic and plutonic lithologiesfrom the southernmost part of the SIB, the Chewore–RufunsaTerrane. This terrane comprises a wide variety of supracrustalto mid-crustal rocks that have major- and trace-element compositionssimilar to magmas formed in present-day subduction zones. Chondrite-normalizedrare earth element (REE) profiles and whole-rock Sm–Ndisotope compositions indicate that the parental supra-subductionmelts interacted with, and were contaminated by sialic continentalcrust, implying a continental-margin-arc setting. Secondaryionization mass spectrometry dating of magmatic zircon has yieldedcrystallization ages between c. 1095 and 1040 Ma, similar toelsewhere in the SIB. U–Pb dating and in situ Lu–Hfisotopic analyses of abundant xenocrystic zircon extracted fromthe late Mesoproterozoic granitoids indicate that the contaminantcontinental basement was principally Palaeoproterozoic in ageand had a juvenile isotopic signature at the time of its formation.These data are in contrast to those for the IB, which is characterizedby younger, c. 1020 Ma, calc-alkaline gneisses that formed bythe direct recycling of Archaean crust without significant additionof any juvenile material. We suggest that the SIB developedby the subduction of oceanic crust under the margin of an unnamedcontinental mass until ocean closure at c. 1040 Ma. Subsequentcollision between the SIB and the CTB margin led to the cessationof magmatism in the SIB and the initiation of compression andcrustal melting in the IB. KEY WORDS: geochemistry; Mesoproterozoic; SHRIMP zircon U–Pb dating; Sm–Nd isotopes; Southern Irumide Belt     

Holographic interferometry study of the dissolution and diffusion of gypsum in water

We have performed holographic interferometry measurements of the dissolution of the (0 1 0) plane of a cleaved gypsum single crystal in pure water. These experiments have provided the value of the dissolution rate constant k of gypsum in water and the value of the interdiffusion coefficient D of its aqueous species in water. D is 1.0 × 10⁻⁹ m² s⁻¹, a value close to the theoretical value generally used in dissolution studies. k is 4 × 10⁻⁵ mol m⁻² s⁻¹. It directly characterizes the microscopic transfer rate at the solid-liquid interface, and is not an averaged value deduced from quantities measured far from the surface as in macroscopic dissolution experiments. It is found to be two times lower than the value obtained from macroscopic experiments.