Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.     

Spatial and isotopic analysis of watershed soil loss and reservoir sediment accumulation rates in Lake Anna, Virginia, USA

Soil erosion and associated sedimentation are a threat to the sustainable use of surface water resources through the loss of volume storage capacity and conveyance of pollutants to receiving water bodies. The RUSLE2 empirical model and isotopic sediment core analyses were used to evaluate watershed erosion and reservoir sediment accumulation rates for Lake Anna, in Central Virginia. A sediment flux rate of 66,000 Mg/year was estimated from the upper basin and land use was determined to be the primary factor contributing to soil erosion. Barren lands and agricultural activities were estimated to contribute the most sediment (>20 Mg/ha/year), whereas forested and herbaceous landscapes were less likely to erode (<0.3 Mg/ha/year). Eleven separate ²¹⁰Pb-based estimates of sediment accumulation were used to construct reservoir-scale sedimentation rates. Sedimentation rates in the upper reaches of the reservoir were variable, ranging from 2.3 to 100 Mg/ha/year, with a median rate of 8.4 Mg/ha/year. Historical sedimentation showed an increase in annual accumulation from 1972 to present. Based on these data the reservoir has experienced a 2% loss of volume storage capacity since impoundment in 1972. Results from this study indicate that Lake Anna is not currently experiencing excessive sedimentation and erosion problems. However, the predominance of highly erosive soils (soil erodibility factor >0.30) within the watershed makes this system highly vulnerable to future anthropogenic stressors.     

Mise en évidence d'un nouveau front de chevauchement dans l'Atlas tunisien oriental de Tunisie par sismique réflexion. Contexte structural régional et rôle du Trias salifère

Structural interpretations of newly acquired seismic lines in northeastern Tunisia allow us to highlight a new thrust front for the Atlasic range of Tunisia, in contrast to the previously Zaghouan fault thrust Dorsale zone. This new thrust front takes place on weakness tectonic zones, materialized by inherited faults anchored on the pre-Triassic basement. This front seems to be a paleogeographic trend controlling structural style and basin fill with a synsedimentary activity. The front is expressed by reverse faults, thrust faults, back thrusting, and decollement structures. To cite this article: S. Khomsi et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Cohesive‐frictional model for bond and splitting action of prestressing wire

This paper presents a numerical procedure for bond between indented wires and concrete, and the coupled splitting process of the surrounding concrete. The bond model is an interface, non‐associative, plasticity model. It is coupled with a cohesive fracture model for concrete to take into account the splitting of such concrete. Bond between steel and concrete is fundamental for the transmission of stresses between both materials in precast prestressed concrete. Indented wires are used to improve the bond in these structural elements. The radial component of the prestressing force, increased by Poisson's effect, may split the surrounding concrete, decreasing the wire confinement and diminishing the bonding. The combined action of the bond and the splitting is studied with the proposed model. The results of the numerical model are compared with the results of a series of tests, such as those which showed splitting induced by the bond between wire and concrete. Tests with different steel indentation depths were performed. The numerical procedure accurately reproduces the experimental records and improves knowledge of this complex process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system??s components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies.     

Evidence for mass-dependent isotopic fractionation of strontium in a glaciated granitic watershed

The stable isotope composition of strontium (expressed as δ^88/86Sr) may provide important constraints on the global exogenic strontium cycle. Here, we present δ^88/86Sr values and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios for granitoid rocks, a 150 yr soil chronosequence formed from these rocks, surface waters and plants in a small glaciated watershed in the central Swiss Alps. Incipient chemical weathering in this young system, whether of inorganic or biological origin, has no resolvable effect on the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and δ^88/86Sr values of bulk soils, which remain indistinguishable from bedrock in terms of Sr isotopic composition. Although due in part to the chemical heterogeneity of the forefield, the lack of a resolvable difference between soil and bedrock isotopic composition indicates that these soils have thus far witnessed minimal net loss of Sr; a low degree of chemical weathering is also implied by bulk soil chemistry. The isotopic composition of Sr in streamwater is more radiogenic than median soil, reflecting the preferential weathering of biotite in the catchment; streamwater δ^88/86Sr values, however, are indistinguishable from bulk soil δ^88/86Sr values, implying that no resolvable fractionation of Sr isotopes takes place during release to the weathering flux in the Damma forefield. Analyses of plant tissue reveal that plants (Rhododendron and Vaccinium) preferentially assimilate the lighter isotopes of Sr such that their δ^88/86Sr values are significantly lower than those of the soils in which they grow. Additionally, δ^88/86Sr values of foliar and floral tissues are lower than those of roots, contrary to observations for Ca, for which Sr is often used as an analogue in weathering studies. We suggest that processes that discriminate against Sr in favour of Ca, due to the different nutritional requirement of plants for these two elements, are responsible for the observed contrast.     

Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

Dispersal of river sediments in coastal seas: Six contrasting cases

The fate of sediment seaward of river mouths involves at least four stages: supply via plumes; initial deposition; resuspension and transport by marine processes; and long-term net accumulation. The processes that operate at each stage, and relative roles of each stage in governing the long-term accumulation patterns, vary appreciably with river regime and coastal ocean environment. To illustrate the diversity and illuminate the process of dispersal, information is synthesized for six systems: Amazon, Changjiang, Mississippi, Columbia, Purari, and Huanghe. These systems differ markedly in terms of water discharge, sediment discharge, and coastal energy regime and much of the diversity of dispersal patterns is attributed to these differences as well as to the temporal sequencing of river discharge relative to oceanographic transport processes. Although the sediment: water ratio of the discharge of the Mississippi River is 70 times less than that of the Huanghe, both of these systems exhibit rapid deposition and accumulation of sediments near the river mouths. In contrast, sediments dispersed by, the other four systems are transported greater distances from the mouths by oceanographic processes, and are accumulating over relatively wide areas.