Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Gold solubility in oxidized and reduced, water-saturated mafic melt

We have performed experiments to evaluate Au solubility in natural, water-saturated basaltic melts as a function of oxygen fugacity. Experiments were carried out at 1000 °C and 200 MPa, and oxygen fugacity was controlled at the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) oxygen fugacity buffer and FMQ + 4. All experiments were saturated with a metal-chloride aqueous solution loaded initially as a 10 wt% NaCl eq. fluid. The stable phase assemblage at FMQ consists of basalt melt, olivine, clinopyroxene, a single-phase aqueous fluid, and metallic Au. The stable phase assemblage at FMQ + 4 consists of basalt melt, clinopyroxene, magnetite-spinel solid solution, a single-phase aqueous fluid, and metallic Au. Silicate glasses (i.e., quenched melt) and their contained crystalline material were analyzed by using both electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Measured Au concentrations in the quenched melt range from 4.8 μg g⁻¹ to 0.64 μg g⁻¹ at FMQ + 4, and 0.54 μg g⁻¹ to 0.1 μg g⁻¹ at FMQ. The measured solubility of Au in olivine and clinopyroxene was consistently below the LA-ICP-MS limit of detection (i.e., 0.1 μg g⁻¹). These melt solubility data place important limitations on the dissolved Au content of water-saturated, Cl- and S-bearing basaltic liquids at geologically relevant fO₂ values. The new data are compared to published, experimentally-determined values for Au solubility in dry and hydrous silicate liquids spanning the compositional range from basalt to rhyolite, and the effects of melt composition, oxygen fugacity, pressure and temperature are discussed.     

Encounter norms, social carrying capacity indicators, and standards of quality at a marine protected area

This article examines visitors’ normative acceptance of encounters with boats at a marine protected area and the extent that the number of boats, size of boats, and size of boat on which individuals were traveling influences these encounter norms. Data were obtained from a survey of 439 people visiting Molokini Shoal Marine Life Conservation District in Hawai’i, and photographs depicting four levels of boat use and three proportions of boat size measured encounter norms. Number of boats most strongly influenced encounter norms, boat size was less influential, and the size of boats on which respondents were traveling had little influence. Visitors wanted fewer boats at this site and a majority would not accept encountering more than 15 or 16 boats at one time. When the impact of boat size was considered, they would not accept encountering more than 12 large boats to 17 small boats. Implications for future research and managing standards of quality and social carrying capacity indicators at this marine protected area are discussed.     

Marine renewable energy: The ecological implications of altering the hydrodynamics of the marine environment

Many countries now recognise the need for mitigation of climate change induced by human activities and have incorporated renewable energy resources within their energy policy. There are extensive resources of renewable energy within the marine environment and increasing interest in extracting energy from locations with either large tidal range, rapid flow with and without wave interaction, or large wave resources. However, the ecological implications of altering the hydrodynamics of the marine environment are poorly understood. Ecological data for areas targeted for marine renewable developments are often limited, not least because of the considerable challenges to sampling in high energy environments. In order to predict the scale and nature of ecological implications there is a need for greater understanding of the distribution and extent of the renewable energy resource and in turn, of how marine renewable energy installations (MREIs) may alter energy in the environment. Regional ecological implications of a MREI need to be considered against the greater and global ecological threat of climate change. Finally, it is recommended that the identification of species and biotopes susceptible to the removal of hydrokinetic energy could be a suitable strategy for understanding how a MREI may alter flow conditions.     

Rehabilitation of industrial areas: case histories from England and Germany

 Contaminated and possibly hazardous ground represents a problem in all of the industrialized countries of the world. The investigation of a site that is suspected of being contaminated differs somewhat from a routine site investigation. Sampling of soils, groundwater and gas-producing material may be required. Various precautions may be necessary in doing this and operatives may have to wear protective clothing. Four case histories have been chosen to illustrate different aspects of the rehabilitation of abandoned contaminated land, namely, investigation, assessment, ground treatment and redevelopment. The first comes from Leeds in West Yorkshire, England, and outlines how a site investigation was undertaken and the nature of the contamination present, together with a note on the suggested redevelopment. The remaining three case histories are taken from the heavily industrialized district of the Ruhr in Germany, where extensive mining of coal and associated industries were developed from the mid-19th century onwards. The first considers the site of the former Graf Moltke mine near Essen. In this instance, the somewhat novel methods of data assessment and ground treatment are dealt with. The Mont Cenis site at Herne-Sodingen is one of the more notable old mining/industrial sites undergoing redevelopment in the state of North Rhine Westphalia. Hence, the case history concentrates of this aspect of rehabilitation. This involves not only the construction of new and interesting structures but an attempt to reduce energy consumption in an attempt to effect the concept of sustainable development of an urban area. The last example deals with the abandoned site of the Minister Achenbach mine at Lünen, where the ground conditions were further complicated by the presence of old bomb craters that had been filled with a variety of materials. In addition, because of the suspected presence of former foundation structures in the ground an electromagnetic survey was carried out across part of the site, the areas of high conductivity suggesting their presence. Received: 15 September 1999 · Accepted: 14 March 2000     

Non-linear amplification of a magnetic field driven by cosmic ray streaming

One-, two- and three-dimensional numerical results of the non-linear interaction between cosmic rays and a magnetic field are presented. These show that cosmic ray streaming drives large-amplitude Alfvénic waves. The cosmic ray streaming energy is very efficiently transferred to the perturbed magnetic field of the Alfvén waves, and the non-linear time-scale of the growth of the waves is found to be very rapid, of the order of the gyro-period of the cosmic ray. Thus, a magnetic field of interstellar values, assumed in models of supernova remnant blast wave acceleration, would not be appropriate in the region of the shock. The increased magnetic field reduces the cosmic ray acceleration time and so increases the maximum cosmic ray energy, which may provide a simple and elegant resolution to the highest energy Galactic cosmic ray problem, where the cosmic rays themselves provide the fields necessary for their acceleration.     

Normal fault growth influenced by basement fabrics: The importance of preferential nucleation from pre‐existing structures

Reactivation of pre‐existing intra‐basement structures can influence the evolution of rift basins, yet the detailed kinematic relationship between these structures and overlying rift‐related faults remains poorly understood. Understanding the kinematic as well as geometric relationship between intra‐basement structures and rift‐related fault networks is important, with the extension direction in many rifted provinces typically thought to lie normal to fault strike. We here investigate this problem using a borehole‐constrained, 3D seismic reflection dataset from the Taranaki Basin, offshore New Zealand. Excellent imaging of intra‐basement structures and a relatively weakly deformed, stratigraphically simple sedimentary cover allow us to: (a) identify a range of interaction styles between intra‐basement structures and overlying, Plio‐Pleistocene rift‐related normal faults; and (b) examine the cover fault kinematics associated with each interaction style. Some of the normal faults parallel and are physically connected to intra‐basement reflections, which are interpreted as mylonitic reverse faults formed during Mesozoic subduction and basement terrane accretion. These geometric relationships indicate pre‐existing intra‐basement structures locally controlled the position and attitude of Plio‐Pleistocene rift‐related normal faults. However, through detailed 3D kinematic analysis of selected normal faults, we show that: (a) normal faults only nucleated above intra‐basement structures that experienced late Miocene compressional reactivation, (b) despite playing an important role during subsequent rifting, intra‐basement structures have not been significantly extensionally reactivated, and (c) preferential nucleation and propagation of normal faults within late Miocene reverse faults and folds appears to be the key genetic relationship between contractionally reactivated intra‐basement structures and rift‐related normal faults. Our analysis shows that km‐scale, intra‐basement structures can control the nucleation and development of newly formed, rift‐related normal faults, most likely due to a local perturbation of the regional stress field. Because of this, simply inverting fault strike for causal extension direction may be incorrect, especially in provinces where pre‐existing, intra‐basement structures occur. We also show that a detailed kinematic analysis is key to deciphering the temporal as well as simply the spatial or geometric relationship between structures developed at multiple structural levels.     

Relational Agriculture: Gender,Sexuality, and Sustainability in U.S. Farming

Although 97% of U.S. farms are “family-owned,” little research examines how gender and sexual relationships – inherent in familial dynamics – influence farmers’ practices and livelihoods. Gender and sexual dynamics – shaped by race and class – affect who is considered a farmer, land management decisions, and access to resources like land, subsidies, and knowledge. We use feminist and queer lenses to illuminate how today’s agricultural gender and sexual relations are not “natural,” but when left uninterrogated are constructed in ways that harm women and queer farmers while limiting potential to develop sustainable practices. Women and queer farmers also resist, “re-orienting” gender and sexual relations in ways that expand possibilities for achieving food justice and ecological sustainability. We offer “relational agriculture” as a tool for making visible and re-orienting gender and sexual relations on farms. Relational agriculture brings sexuality into food justice and demonstrates the centrality of gender and sexuality to agricultural sustainability.     

S-asteroids 387 Aquitania and 980 Anacostia: Possible fragments of the breakup of a spinel-bearing parent body with C03/CV3 affinities

Abstract— Asteroids 387 Aquitania and 980 Anacostia are anomalous members of the S-class. Their reflectance spectra exhibit a strong broad absorption feature longwards of 1.5 μm and no significant feature near 1 μm. Their spectra indicate the presence of spinel, an aluminum-magnesium oxide mineral commonly present in inclusions in CV3 and CO3 meteorites. Spinel probably makes up only a small percentage of the surface assemblages of these asteroids, but its spectral effect may be enhanced by its presence in fine-grained white inclusions in immature asteroid regoliths. It is speculated that Aquitania and Anacostia represent material formed in the same nebular zone as the CV3 and CO3 chondrites but either: A) at an earlier time in the nebula when such inclusions might have been a relatively larger fraction of the nebular grain population, or B) in local regions where nebular processes (e.g., settling to the midplane) had concentrated such inclusions. The close similarity of two orbital elements (a, i) suggests that Aquitania and Anacostia may be members of a partially dispersed asteroid family produced by the early disruption of a spinel-bearing parent body.