Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities

We investigated how climate change could affect ambient ozone concentrations and the subsequent human health impacts. Hourly concentrations were estimated for 50 eastern US cities for five representative summers each in the 1990s and 2050s, reflecting current and projected future climates, respectively. Estimates of future concentrations were based on the IPCC A2 scenario using global climate, regional climate, and regional air quality models. This work does not explore the effects of future changes in anthropogenic emissions, but isolates the impact of altered climate on ozone and health. The cities’ ozone levels are estimated to increase under predicted future climatic conditions, with the largest increases in cities with present-day high pollution. On average across the 50 cities, the summertime daily 1-h maximum increased 4.8 ppb, with the largest increase at 9.6 ppb. The average number of days/summer exceeding the 8-h regulatory standard increased 68%. Elevated ozone levels correspond to approximately a 0.11% to 0.27% increase in daily total mortality. While actual future ozone concentrations depend on climate and other influences such as changes in emissions of anthropogenic precursors, the results presented here indicate that with other factors constant, climate change could detrimentally affect air quality and thereby harm human health.     

运动方向的线状指示物与斑变晶中叶理交切轴(FIAs)的比较及其与板块相对运动方向的关系(英文)

过去还无人指出过板块相对运动的方向与缓倾斜叶理、逆断层和断层上的线状指示物有直接关系,这是因为缓倾斜构造上的运动方向只和变厚了的造山地层的重力塌陷有关,它们和俯冲板块传递给仰冲板块的推力没有关系。缓倾斜叶理上的运动方向的线状指示物和斑状变晶中的叶理弯曲或叶理交切轴（FIA）并无直接关系,这是因为FIA的指向受缓倾斜叶理和斑状变晶边缘上产生的、近乎垂直的叶理之间的交切面控制。在班状变晶边缘上形成的、近乎垂直的叶理在基质中的方位可能在较大范围内变动,因为它们会在稍早期间形成的叶理再活化作用影响下发生转动或遭到破坏。斑状变晶边缘上近乎垂直的叶理,与形成于早期或晚期的缓倾斜叶理的交线,在后期的生长中被圈闭在班状变晶里,此交线规定出了FIA的方位,而与叶理上的运动方向无关。从美国佛蒙特州阿巴拉契亚山脉采集的FIA资料指出,在125km×35km的一片地区内,在该地岩层所发生的多次变形中,从未曾使早期形成的FIA组的方位发生变动。这种情况要求：后来的每一代褶皱都是由于渐进的。总体不均匀缩短作用造成的。这种情况表明：FIA保存着原始的运动方向,此方向未因以后的变形而转动。非洲板块与欧洲板块的相对运动方向和由阿尔卑斯期变质岩中叶理交切轴（FIAs）所指示     

A study of tides and currents in Cook Strait, New Zealand

Greater Cook Strait (GCS) lies between the North and the South Islands of New Zealand. Its location at the convergence of the Pacific and Indo-Australian tectonic plates leads to interesting bathymetry with an adjacent shallow shelf and deep ocean trench as well as numerous crossing faults and complex shoreline geometry. Our purpose in this study is to examine tides and currents in GCS and, in particular, identify the major forcing mechanisms for the residual currents. Toward this end, we use an unstructured-grid numerical model to reproduce the tides and currents, verify these results with observations and then use the model to separate the various forcing mechanisms. The physical forcing includes nonlinear generation from tides and tidal currents, differences in sea level between the Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea boundaries, density variations, wind stress and river discharge into GCS. Each of these mechanisms is important in different areas.     

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) and carbonatites

There is increasing evidence that many carbonatites are linked both spatially and temporally with large igneous provinces (LIPs), i.e. high volume, short duration, intraplate-type, magmatic events consisting mainly of flood basalts and their plumbing systems (of dykes, sills and layered intrusions). Examples of LIP-carbonatite associations include: i. the 66 Ma Deccan flood basalt province associated with the Amba Dongar, Sarnu-Dandali (Barmer), and Mundwara carbonatites and associated alkali rocks, ii. the 130 Ma Paraná-Etendeka (e.g. Jacupiranga, Messum); iii. the 250 Ma Siberian LIP that includes a major alkaline province, Maimecha-Kotui with numerous carbonatites, iv. the ca. 370 Ma Kola Alkaline Province coeval with basaltic magmatism widespread in parts of the East European craton, and v. the 615–555 Ma CIMP (Central Iapetus Magmatic Province) of eastern Laurentia and western Baltica. In the Superior craton, Canada, a number of carbonatites are associated with the 1114–1085 Ma Keweenawan LIP and some are coeval with the pan-Superior 1880 Ma mafic-ultramafic magmatism. In addition, the Phalaborwa and Shiel carbonatites are associated with the 2055 Ma Bushveld event of the Kaapvaal craton. The frequency of this LIP-carbonatite association suggests that LIPs and carbonatites might be considered as different evolutionary ‘pathways’ in a single magmatic process/system. The isotopic mantle components FOZO, HIMU, EM1 but not DMM, along with primitive noble gas signatures in some carbonatites, suggest a sub-lithospheric mantle source for carbonatites, consistent with a plume/asthenospheric upwelling origin proposed for many LIPs.     

The point of origin of the radio radiation from the unresolved cores of radio-loud quasars

Locating the exact point of origin of the core radiation in active galactic nuclei (AGN) would represent important progress in our understanding of physical processes in the central engine of these objects. However, due to our inability to resolve the region containing both the central compact object and the jet base, this has so far been difficult. Here, using an analysis in which the lack of resolution does not play a significant role, we demonstrate that it may be impossible even in most radio loud sources for more than a small percentage of the core radiation at radio wavelengths to come from the jet base. We find for 3C279 that ～85 percent of the core flux at 15 GHz must come from a separate, reasonably stable, region that is not part of the jet base, and that then likely radiates at least quasi-isotropically and is centered on the black hole. The long-term stability of this component also suggests that it may originate in a region that extends over many Schwarzschild radii.     

Experimental constraints on Pt, Pd and Au partitioning and fractionation in silicate melt–sulfide–oxide–aqueous fluid systems at 800 °C, 150 MPa and variable sulfur fugacity

We have performed experiments to constrain the effect of sulfur fugacity (fS₂) and sulfide saturation on the fractionation and partitioning behavior of Pt, Pd and Au in a silicate melt–sulfide crystal/melt–oxide–supercritical aqueous fluid phase–Pt–Pd–Au system. Experiments were performed at 800 °C, 150 MPa, with oxygen fugacity (fO₂) fixed at approximately the nickel–nickel oxide buffer (NNO). Sulfur fugacity in the experiments was varied five orders of magnitude from approximately log fS₂ = 0 to log fS₂ = −5 by using two different sulfide phase assemblages. Assemblage one consisted initially of chalcopyrite plus pyrrhotite and assemblage two was loaded with chalcopyrite plus bornite. At run conditions pyrrhotite transformed compositionally to monosulfide solid solution (mss), chalcopyrite to intermediate solid solution (iss), and in assemblage two chalcopyrite and bornite formed a sulfide melt. Run-product silicate glass (i.e., quenched silicate melt) and crystalline materials were analyzed by using both electron probe microanalysis and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The measured concentrations of Pt, Pd and Au in quenched silicate melt in runs with log fS₂ values ranging from approximately 0.0 to −5.0 do not exhibit any apparent dependence on fS₂. The measured Pt, Pd and Au concentrations in mss do vary as a function of fS₂. The measured Pt, Pd and Au concentrations in iss do not appear dependent on fS₂. The data suggest that fS₂, working in concert with fO₂, via the determinant role that these variables play in controlling the magmatic sulfide phase assemblage and the solubility of Pt, Pd and Au as lattice bound components in magmatic sulfide phases, is a controlling factor on the budgets of Pt, Pd and Au during the evolution of magmatic systems.     

Effects of climate change on oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific: implications for economic development and food security

The four species of tuna that underpin oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific (skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye and albacore tuna) deliver great economic and social benefits to Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs). Domestic tuna fleets and local fish processing operations contribute 3–20 % to gross domestic product in four PICTs and licence fees from foreign fleets provide an average of 3–40 % of government revenue for seven PICTs. More than 12,000 people are employed in tuna processing facilities and on tuna fishing vessels. Fish is a cornerstone of food security for many PICTs and provides 50–90 % of dietary animal protein in rural areas. Several PICTs have plans to (1) increase the benefits they receive from oceanic fisheries by increasing the amount of tuna processed locally, and (2) allocate more tuna for the food security of their rapidly growing populations. The projected effects of climate change on the distribution of tuna in the tropical Pacific Ocean, due to increases in sea surface temperature, changes in velocity of major currents and decreases in nutrient supply to the photic zone from greater stratification, are likely to affect these plans. PICTs in the east of the region with a high dependence on licence fees for government revenue are expected to receive more revenue as tuna catches increase in their exclusive economic zones. On the other hand, countries in the west may encounter problems securing enough fish for their canneries as tuna are redistributed progressively to the east. Changes in the distribution of tuna will also affect the proportions of national tuna catches required for food security. We present priority adaptations to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries posed by climate change and to capitalise on opportunities.