Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

Subjectively Weighted Development Scenarios for Urban Allocation: A Case Study of South East Queensland

This article presents a GIS‐based methodology to integrate a measure of geographic attractiveness of localities in the process of allocating potential dwellings in the context of a large urban region. The methodology was developed for a study area in Brisbane‐South East Queensland (SEQ), known as the Sunbelt Region, a rapidly growing region and a popular tourist destination in Australia. In this article, we have used a multivariate technique to develop a set of parameterised linear equations to define underlying dimensions that drive residential location decision choices. Aesthetic and accessibility factors were identified in the factor analysis from data collected via a survey of Quality of Life. Spatial measures were based on a combination of network distance and kernel density estimation to calculate ‘aesthetic’ and ‘accessibility’ scenarios, which were then overlaid and multiplied by their subjective weights to create an ‘overall attractiveness scenario’. These development scenarios were integrated as a set of criteria to control the allocation of potential dwelling capacity over the next 25 years at a grid cell level.     

Inner-shell photoionization of O iii

A 25-state R -matrix calculation is performed to obtain photoionization cross-sections for transitions from the 1s²2s²2p²³P ground state of the O  iii ion. Results are obtained for a range of photon energies, including those at which K-shell photoionization processes take place. We compare our results with those from previous calculations. Excellent agreement is obtained. We also consider resonances owing to transitions of a 1s electron excited into the 2p orbital and compare with a recent calculation.     

THE TIMMERSOI†, NIGER,HYPERSTHENE CHONDRITE

The Timmersoi meteorite, a new type L5 hypersthene chondrite from the Niger Republic is described and microprobe analyses of its olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, kamacite, taenite, troilite, chromite, whitlockite, chlorapatite and limonite presented. Veins and patches of black “glassy” material are regarded as products of shock melting. In places this material contains immiscible droplets of troilite each with one or more well-formed crystals of taenite. Calculations indicate equilibrium between olivine and orthopyroxene with a temperature of equilibration of about 850 °C.     

Near-IR Reflectance Spectroscopy of 433 Eros from the NIS Instrument on the NEAR Mission: I. Low Phase Angle Observations

From February 13 to May 13, 2000, the near-infrared spectrometer (NIS) instrument on the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) spacecraft obtained more than 200,000 spatially resolved 800- to 2500-nm reflectance spectra of the S-type asteroid 433 Eros. An important subset of the spectra was obtained during a unique opportunity on February 13 and 14, when the NEAR spacecraft flew directly through the 0° phase angle point between Eros and the Sun just prior to the orbital insertion maneuver. This low phase flyby (LPF) dataset consists of ∼2000 spectra of the northern hemisphere of Eros, obtained from 1° to 47° phase angle and at spatial resolutions of between 6×12 km to 1.25×2.50 km per spectrum. The spectra were calibrated to radiance factor (I/F, where I=observed radiance and πF=solar input radiance) and then photometrically corrected to normal albedo. The average northern hemisphere spectrum of Eros is similar to the asteroid's unresolved telescopic spectrum and exhibits absorption features near 1000 nm (Band I) and 2000 nm (Band II) consistent with an orthopyroxene to orthopyroxene+olivine (opx+ol) mixing ratio of approximately 0.38±0.08. The ensemble of NIS LPF spectra falls primarily within the S(IV) to upper S(III) fields of the Gaffey et al. (1993) S-asteroid classification scheme and exhibits Band I and Band II properties similar to those of ordinary chondrite meteorites. While some small spatially coherent spectral variations have been detected, neither the opx/opx+ol) mixing ratio nor other spectral parameters vary spatially by more than ∼1σ across the entire northern hemisphere of the asteroid, suggesting a remarkable homogeneity of the composition and mineralogy of the uppermost regolith. Spectral mixture modeling suggests that the presence of glass and/or a reddening agent like nanophase iron, likely formed from exposure of the regolith to the space environment, is a component of the surface of Eros. Reddening and darkening components could also explain the dissimilarity in overall spectral slope and albedo between Eros and other S(IV) asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites. The largest (but still weak) spectral variations across the surface are seen in the depths of Band I and Band II, which are greatest in and around the largest craters and at the 0° longitude “nose” of the asteroid, and in the Band II/Band I area ratio between the large impact craters Psyche and Himeros. These subtle NIS spectral variations are usually associated with albedo and surface slope variations seen in NEAR imaging and topographic data and appear to be related to downslope movement of regolith materials.     

Eros: Shape, Topography, and Slope Processes

Stereogrammetric measurement of the shape of Eros using images obtained by NEAR's Multispectral Imager provides a survey of the major topographic features and slope processes on this asteroid. This curved asteroid has radii ranging from 3.1 to 17.7 km and a volume of 2535±20 km³. The center of figure is within 52 m of the center of mass provided by the Navigation team; this minimal difference suggests that there are only modest variations in density or porosity within the asteroid. Three large depressions 10, 8, and 5.3 km across represent different stages of degradation of large impact craters. Slopes on horizontal scales of ∼300 m are nearly all less than 35°, although locally scarps are much steeper. The area distribution of slopes is similar to those on Ida, Phobos, and Deimos. Regions that have slopes greater than 25° have distinct brighter markings and have fewer large ejecta blocks than do flatter areas. The albedo patterns that suggest downslope transport of regolith have sharper boundaries than those on Phobos, Deimos, and Gaspra. The morphology of the albedo patterns, their lack of discrete sources, and their concentration on steeper slopes suggest transport mechanisms different from those on the previously well-observed small bodies, perhaps due to a reduced relative effectiveness of impact gardening on Eros. Regolith is also transported in talus cones and in connected, sinuous paths extending as much as 2 km, with some evident as relatively darker material. Talus material in at least one area is a discrete superposed unit, a feature not resolved on other small bodies. Flat-floored craters that apparently contain ponded material also suggest discrete units that are not well mixed by impacts.     

A groundwater survey of the greater Durban area and environs, Natal, South Africa

Received: 15 June 1999 · Accepted: 30 August 1999     

The Comet Nucleus Tour (Contour); A NASA Discovery Mission

In 1997, the COmet Nucleus TOUR (CONTOUR) was selected byNASA for a new start as part of the Discovery line. In this paper, we review the status of the mission, the mission timeline and the instruments to be flown. Detail is given of the science goals and how they are to be accomplished.     

The bimodal spiral galaxy surface brightness distribution

We have assessed the significance of Tully and Verheijen's bimodal Ursa Major Cluster spiral galaxy near-infrared surface brightness distribution, focusing on whether this bimodality is simply an artefact of small number statistics. A Kolmogorov–Smirnov style of significance test shows that the total distribution is fairly represented by a single-peaked distribution, but that their isolated galaxy subsample (with no significant neighbours within a projected distance of ∼80 kpc) is bimodal at the 96 per cent level. We have also investigated the assumptions underlying the isolated galaxy surface brightness distribution, finding that the (often large) inclination corrections used in the construction of this distribution reduce the significance of the bimodality. We conclude that the Ursa Major Cluster data set is insufficient to establish the presence of a bimodal near-infrared surface brightness distribution: an independent sample of ∼100 isolated, low-inclination galaxies is required to establish bimodality at the 99 per cent level.     

Non-Linear Amplification of a Magnetic Field Driven by Cosmic Ray Streaming

One dimensional numerical results of the non-linear interaction between cosmic rays and a magnetic field are presented. These show that cosmic ray streaming drives large amplitude Alfvénic waves. The cosmic ray streaming energy is very efficiently transfered to the perturbed magnetic field of the Alfvén waves. Thus a magnetic field of interstellar values, assumed in models of supernova remnant blast wave acceleration, would not be appropriate in the region of the shock. The increased magnetic field reduces the acceleration time and so increases the maximum cosmic ray energy, which may provide a simple and elegant resolution to the highest energy galactic cosmic ray problem were the cosmic rays themselves provide the fields necessary for their acceleration. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.