Geomagnetic secular acceleration

Summary. A spherical harmonic model of the second time-derivative of the geomagnetic field is determined, for the first time, directly from measures of the secular acceleration based on observatory annual mean data. The data span the interval 1964.5–1975.5, and 165 observatories are included. The model comprises the 32 coefficients of degree and order up to 6 that are significant at the 5 per cent level. Its primary purpose is to aid in the reduction of data to epoch for the 1980 series of navigational charts. The model is compared with earlier estimates of secular acceleration, derived by less direct methods.     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT: UNPREDICTABILITY AND THE PRIMACY OF PLACE

Landscapes, environments, and ecosystems (i.e., places) are historically and spatially contingent and therefore unique. Generalizations and laws are based on “all other things being equal.” Owing to historical and spatial contingency, all other things are never completely equal and often do not approach that ideal closely enough to allow for reliable prediction. The problem is illustrated by examining effects of grazing and fire suppression on transitions between grass and woody vegetation communities. In three different environments in the southern United States (central Texas, southwestern Virginia, and eastern North Carolina), three different relationships exist between grazing and fire regime, and vegetation. Other examples are common in the geographic and environmental literature. This suggests that the search for a single applicable generalization or predictive model of a given human-induced environmental change that can be applied without accounting for the particular characteristics of places may be futile. Several general ways to address this issue are suggested. First is the recognition that place matters. Conditions specific to a location or region will influence what, how, or even if generalizations apply. Second is the adoption of a “demographic” approach. This is based on the idea that for places, like people, it is possible to make aggregate or probabilistic generalizations or predictions, but these cannot be applied to deterministic prediction of individuals. Third is a synoptic approach based on forecasting not via simple cause-effect relationships, but based on a typology of situations that recognizes and incorporates the unique characteristics of site and situation. Several converging threads of inquiry in geography and geosciences explicitly or implicitly address the issue of historical and spatial contingency. [Key words: landscape, environment, place, prediction.]     

Stochastic model-based methods for handling uncertainty in areal interpolation

Handling of uncertainty in the estimation of values from source areas to target areas poses a challenge in areal interpolation research. Stochastic model-based methods offer a basis for incorporating such uncertainty, but to date they have not been widely adopted by the GIS community. In this article, we propose one use of such methods based in the problem of interpolating count data from a source set of zones (parishes) to a more widely used target zone geography (postcode sectors). The model developed also uses ancillary statistical count data for a third set of areas nested within both source and target zones. The interpolation procedure was implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, enabling us to take account of all sources of uncertainty included in the model. Distributions of estimated values at the target zone level are presented using both summary statistics and as individual realisations selected to illustrate the degree of uncertainty in the interpolation results. We aim to describe the use of such stochastic approaches in an accessible way and to highlight the need for quantifying estimation uncertainty arising in areal interpolation, especially given the implications arising when interpolated values are used in subsequent analyses of relationships.     

Fission tracks in minerals: Annealing kinetics,track structure and age correction

It is shown that the annealing kinetics of fission tracks in apatite can be described by a sum of exponential decay functions. From an analysis of the temperature dependence of this annealing law it is concluded that the etchability of fission tracks is due to extended defects, i.e. systems of dislocation loops. The multiexponential annealing law is also applied to prove that the plateau correction method is basically correct, but rather as a method for determining a lower limit than the “true” fission track age.     

The granite problem as exposed in the southern Snake Range,Nevada

A geochemically and mineralogically diverse group of granitoids is present within an area of 900 km² in the southern Snake Range of eastern Nevada. The granitoids exposed range in age from Jurassic through Cretaceous to Oligocene and include two calcic intrusions, two different types of two-mica granites, and aplites. The younger intrusions appear to have been emplaced at progressively more shallow depths. All of these granitoid types are represented elsewhere in the eastern Great Basin, but the southern Snake Range is distinguished by the grouping of all these types within a relatively small area. The Jurassic calcic pluton of the Snake Creek-Williams Canyon area displays large and systematic chemical and mineralogical zonation over a horizontal distance of five km. Although major element variations in the pluton compare closely with Daly's average andesite-dacite-rhyolite over an SiO₂ range of 63 to 76 percent, trace element (Rb, Sr, Ba) variations show that the zonation is the result of in situ fractional crystallization, with the formation of relatively mafic cumulates on at least one wall of the magma chamber. Models of trace element and isotopic data indicate that relatively little assimilation took place at the level of crystallization. Nonetheless, an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr value of 0.7071 and δ ¹⁸O values of 10.2 to 12.2 permil suggest a lower crustal magma that was contaminated by upper crustal clastic sedimentary rocks before crystallization. The involvement of mantle-derived magmas in its genesis is difficult to rule out. Two other Jurassic plutons show isotopic and chemical similarities to the Snake Creek-Williams Canyon pluton. Cretaceous granites from eastern Nevada that contain phenocrystic muscovite are strongly peraluminous, and have high initial Sr-isotope ratios and other features characteristic of S-type granitoids. They were probably derived from Proterozoic metasediments and granite gneisses that comprise the middle crust of this region. Another group of granitoids (including the Tertiary aplites) show chemical, mineralogic, and isotopic characteristics intermediate between the first two groups and may have been derived by contamination of magmas from the lower crust by the midcrustal metasediments.     

Temperature variation in the mesosphere during solar eclipse

Rocket-borne observations of the extinction of solar hydrogen Lyman-alpha radiation made during the solar eclipses of 20 May 1966 at Karistos for normal and 44% visibility and of 7 March 1970 at East Quoddy for normal, 10% and 0.6% visibility have been used to study the variation of temperature in the mesosphere during these events. It is seen that near the mesopause the decrease of temperature at Karistos is by 20° K for 44% visibility and at East Quoddy by 100° K for 0.6% visibility. Possible causes of these temperature variationsvis-a-vis molecular oxygen and pressure variations have been briefly discussed.