近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究

利用我国地面606个气象观测台站1951—2006年的逐日降水量和平均气温资料, 使用《气象干旱等级》国家标准中推荐使用的综合气象干旱指数（I_C）, 分析了近半个世纪以来全国及不同地区干旱变化情况。结果表明:总体而言, 全国干旱面积在近50年没有显著增加或减少的趋势, 但不同地区差异较大; 其中东北和华北地区干旱化趋势显著, 特别是20世纪90年代后期至21世纪初, 上述地区发生了连续数年的大范围严重干旱, 在近半个世纪中十分罕见; 东北、华北和西北地区东部的大部分地区在近50年中持续时间最长的干旱事件多发生在1980年以后的20多年中, 而且上述地区在近20多年来干旱发生得更加频繁。另外, 我国干旱化趋势最显著的地区与增暖幅度最大的地区有很大的一致性, 表明区域增暖在干旱变化中起着一定作用。     

西风爆发时赤道西太平洋的热量平衡：个例分析

The responses of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool to the west erly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in the relationship between WWB and ENSO. By using da ta collected from eight buoys of TOGA (Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere)-COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment), the heat balances of the upper ocean in the western equatorial Pacific around 0°. 156°E during two WWB events were calculated according to Stevenson and Niiler＇s (1983) method. In both events, SST increased before and after the WWBs, while decreased within the WWBs. The SST amplitudes approximated to l℃. Although sometimes the horizontal heat advections may become the biggest term in the heat balance, the variation of SST was dominated by the surface heat flux. On the other aspect, some different features of the two events are also revealed. The two cases have different variation of mixed layer depth. The depth of mixed layer is almost double in the first case (35 m to 70 m), which is caused by Ekman convergence, while only 10m increments due to entrainment in the second one. There are also differences in the currents structure. The different variations of thermal and currents struc ture in the mixing layers accounted for the different variation of the heat balance during the two events, es pecially the advection and residue terms. The seasonal variation of SST in this area is also investigated sim ply. The first WWB event happened just during the seasonal transition. So we considered that it is a normal season transition rather than a so-called anomaly. That also suggested that the seasonal distinction of the WWB is worthy of more attention in the researches of its relationship to ENSO.     

基于CloudSat资料的冷涡对流云带垂直结构特征

利用CloudSat卫星资料、NCEP再分析资料和FY-2C卫星可见光云图分析了2006年7月20—24日我国东北一次冷涡过程不同时期对流云的垂直结构以及云内中小尺度的结构,发现在冷涡发展阶段的初期,暖锋对流结构表现为孤立的回波系统多,强对流深厚,对流系统体现为孤立、深厚的特征。在冷涡发展成熟阶段,回波强度比冷涡发展初期的对流系统有所减弱,且为浅薄的对流系统。冷涡系统影响下发展的锢囚锋回波系统顶部呈现独特的结构特征:东南部为干冷空气侵入造成的回波区, 中部为锢囚锋主体对流区, 西北部为暖锋遇冷锋抬升作用形成的回波区。在锢囚锋尾部存在冰水含量与液态水含量分层现象,干冷空气侵入层在5 km高度左右,在干冷空气侵入层上部为冰水含量分布的弱回波区,下部为液态水分布的弱回波区。在冷涡成熟阶段,对流系统分布在冷涡外沿,表现为孤立的对流系统,冰水含量多的对流系统主要在冷涡的北面,而液态水主要分布在冷涡中心零度层以下。     

飑线的非线性重力波行波解模型

本文提出了一个飑线的非线性重力波行波解模型,并将该模型与实际飑线作了比较,结果表明,该模型可反映出飑线的主要特征.     

气候模式-农业气象模式集成系统的小麦灌溉管理新途径

首次采用区域数值预报模式与农业气象模型结合的技术途径, 构成一个气候模式-土壤水分模式-灌溉模式的系统模型。模型的数值天气预报部分采用大气过程与陆面过程耦合的区域气候模式; 农业气象模型采用适用于冬小麦区的土壤水分和灌溉管理预报模型。研究表明, 本模型较农业气象模型中一般用气候平均作为环境背景场的方法其预测能力有显著提高, 并提供覆盖整个小麦生长期的区域土壤水分定量预报和灌溉管理服务, 具有很好的使用和推广前景。     

非单一水平均匀下垫面空气动力学参数的确定

文章介绍了一种利用单一高度风速、温度湍流资料确定空气动力学参数的方法。该方法无须进行风速廓线的测量，可以应用于非单一水平均匀下垫面和非中性层结，避免了主观性。用该方法计算了北京城市北部边缘325 m气象塔附近的零值位移d和地表粗糙 z0。结果表明:该处下垫面零值位移d和地表粗糙度z0与风向有很强的依赖关系，与气象塔周围的城市建设相对应。     

利用生物圈模型 (SiB2) 模拟青藏高原那曲草原近地面层能量收支

模式所需要的参数被合理地设置之后, 根据GAME/ Tibet (GEWEX亚洲季风试验/青藏高原试验) 那曲近地层观测站的资料, 将大气强迫变量代入SiB2(Simple Biosphere model version2), 文章模拟了该观测站地表能量收支。结果表明:SiB2能够较好地模拟青藏高原的能量收支情况, 净辐射、潜热通量和土壤热通量的模拟值和观测值吻合, 它们的相对误差分别为8% (低估)、6% (低估) 和3 %(低估)。同时, SiB2高估感热通量达40%。文章还给出了能量各分量的详细比较分析。     

Extreme precipitation events identified using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in Anhui,China

Extreme weather events include unusual, severe or unseasonal weather, and weather at the extremes of the historical distribution. They have become more frequent and intense under global warming, especially in mid-latitude areas. They bring about great agricultural and economic losses. It is important to define the threshold of extreme weather event because it is the starting point of extreme weather event research, though it has been of seldom concern. Taking extreme precipitation events in Anhui, China as an example, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is introduced to define the threshold of extreme weather events. Based on it, the spatial and temporal distributions of extreme precipitation events are analyzed. Compared to the traditional percentile method, DFA is based on the long-term correlation of time series. Thresholds calculated by DFA are much higher than the 99th percentile and the values are higher in the south and lower in the north. This spatial pattern is similar to the annual precipitation spatial pattern. There is an obvious increasing trend in the number of days with extreme precipitation, especially after the 1980s. This observation supports the point that more extreme events happen under global warming.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

提高气候预测准确率的有效途径

文中给出了目前我国干旱气候预测的水平和使用的主要方法。指出数值模式的预测方法不仅具有明确坚实的物理基础。而且具有客观、定量的优点。是气候预测方法的一个新的发展方向。20世纪90年代以来，高分辨率的区域气候模式的发展为区域气候的模拟和预测研究带来了新的希望。发展适合西北地区的高分辨率区域气候模式，是目前西北地区气候规律及其预测研究迫切需要解决的科学问题。