基于专家经验值的滑坡易发性评价——以四川平武高坪铺库区为例

滑坡灾害的易发性评价方法和模型有很多,不同的学者又对其进行了不同的改进,形成了不同的方法。究竟哪种方法更好,还需要结合实际进行方法的比较分析。论文应用基于专家经验值的二元统计法分析了四川平武高坪铺库区(约32 km2)高程、岩性、与居民点距离、与河流距离、坡度和坡向6种因素对滑坡灾害影响,并在此基础上进行了滑坡易发性评价。     

延边地区天宝山多金属矿田的流体特征与成矿模式

天宝山铅锌铜钼多金属矿田由新兴铅-锌矿床、东风铅-锌-铜-钼矿床和立山铜-铅-锌矿床组成,它们分别产在侏罗纪黑云母花岗闪长岩、闪长岩与古生代海相火山-沉积岩的接触带和岩体内部。矿床地质特征研究表明:新兴铅-锌矿床以石英硫化物充填胶结角砾岩筒矿体为特征,具有与中温岩浆热液矿床类似的蚀变特征;东风铅-锌-铜-钼矿床以发育浸染状硫化物、石英硫化物脉和辉钼矿石英脉为特征,具有接触交代热液矿床特征;立山铜-铅-锌矿床则以磁铁矿、方铅矿和闪锌矿等多金属硫化物矿化发育为特征,具有典型的接触交代矽卡岩型矿床特征。对主成矿阶段以及成矿晚阶段的脉石矿物石英流体包裹体研究揭示:新兴铅-锌矿床的石英-黄铁矿阶段、石英-闪锌矿-方铅矿-黄铜矿多金属硫化物阶段和石英-碳酸盐阶段对应的温度分别为270～340℃、190～260℃、130～160℃;盐度(w(NaCl))和密度分别为0.62%～9.86%和0.37～1.00g/cm3;压力为37.31～87.69MPa;激光拉曼光谱分析获得流体包裹体的成分主要为CO2、H2O,含有少量的CH4和N2。东风铅-锌-铜-钼矿床的石英-辉钼矿阶段、石英-闪锌矿-方铅矿-黄铜矿多金属硫化物阶段和石英-碳酸盐阶段对应的温度分别为280～337℃、200～260℃、101～190℃;盐度和密度分别为7.16%～23.95%和0.96～1.12g/cm3;压力为28.23～56.64MPa;激光拉曼光谱分析获得流体包裹体成分为H2O。立山铜-铅-锌矿床的磁铁矿-石英脉阶段、石英-方铅矿-闪锌矿-黄铜矿等多金属硫化物和石英-碳酸盐阶段对应的温度分别为210～240℃、170～200℃、126～160℃,盐度和密度分别为2.07%～9.47%和0.89～0.92g/cm3;压力为33.88～59.72 MPa;激光拉曼光谱分析获得流体包裹体成分为CO2和CH4。基于矿床地质特征、成矿流体性质和来源等方面的讨论,建立了天宝山多金属矿田的成矿模式。     

Variational Bayesian independent component analysis for spectral unmixing in remote sensing image

Spectral unmixing is a key technology of optical remote sensing image analysis; it not only influences the accuracy of the extraction of land cover information and automatic classification of topographical objects, but also greatly hinders the development of quantitative remote sensing. Independent component analysis (ICA) is a statistical method which is recently developed to extract the independent linear components, and which can realize the extraction of endmembers as well as fractional abundances with little a priori knowledge. However, ICA still cannot process the correlations among the various components. To overcome this problem, variational Bayesian independent component analysis (VBICA) has been proposed to process optical remote sensing images. In the Bayesian framework, the separation of independent components of remote sensing image has finally been achieved with conditional independence standards of Bayesian network and approximate variational algorithm. In the simulative image and real AVIRIS hyperspectral remote sensing image, the VBICA algorithm demonstrates its better performance. The experiment’s results indicate that the proposed VBICA algorithm is feasible, which has obvious advantages and a good application prospect. The reason is that it can effectively overcome the correlations between the various components in remote sensing images and break through the limitations of traditional remote sensing images analysis. Last but not least, the VBICA algorithm is applied in the classification of the TM multispectral remote sensing images. Compared to basic maximum likelihood classification, principal component analysis and FastICA algorithms, VBICA improves the classification accuracy of remote sensing images, and contributes to the further extension of the application of ICA in remote sensing image analysis.     

SPI-based evaluation of drought events in Xinjiang, China

Daily precipitation data for 1957?C2009 from 53 stations in the Xinjiang, China, are analyzed, based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with the aim to investigate spatio-temporal patterns of droughts. The Mann?CKendall trend test is used to detect the trends in the SPI values of monthly drought series, drought severity and drought duration. The frequencies of moderate, severe and extreme droughts are higher in the North Xinjiang, while mild droughts occur more often in the South Xinjiang. A decreasing frequency of droughts in the North Xinjiang is found in winter, but a drying tendency is detected in the western parts of the North Xinjiang during spring, summer and autumn, which may be harmful for agriculture. The South Xinjiang seems to be getting wetter in summer, while the south parts of the South Xinjiang seem to be getting drier in spring. The middle of the East Xinjiang is identified to be in a slightly dry tendency. The drought severity is decreasing and drought duration is getting shorter in the North Xinjiang, while both of them increase in the southern parts of the South Xinjiang. In addition, droughts in the middle parts of the East Xinjiang are intensifying.     

山东潍北凹陷古近系孔店组一段特征及沉积演化

综合运用岩心、钻井、测井及地震资料,对潍北凹陷古近系孔一段的地层特征及沉积演化进行研究。结果表明：潍北凹陷孔店组一段可以划分为3个亚段、11个砂层组。在西部鄌郚—葛沟断裂和东部昌邑—大店断裂控制下,地层东西向发育稳定,仅在北部洼陷带地层显著加厚;在北部古城—潍河口断层控制下,地层向南部超覆,地层由北向南变薄。潍北凹陷孔店组一段主要发育扇三角洲相和湖泊相,南部斜坡带发育小范围三角洲相。孔一下亚段,物源供给充足,北部洼陷带、瓦城断阶带和灶户断鼻带发育大规模的扇三角洲相;孔一中亚段,湖盆水体变浅,物源供给减少,北部洼陷带、瓦城断阶带和灶户断鼻带继承性发育扇三角洲相,但分布范围变小;孔一上亚段,湖盆水体最浅,物源供给少,全区发育滨浅湖亚相,仅在央斜4井区和昌11井区发育小范围的扇三角洲相沉积。     

宽级配砂土基料-滤层系统的室内模型试验研究

基料一滤层利用数码可视化跟踪技术、计算机信息实时处理技术和土体变形无标点量测技术,对宽级配基料一滤层系统进行了渗透室内模型试验。探讨了滤层准则的适用性,研究了不同滤层厚度和加压速率对管涌发生发展的影响。结果表明：传统太沙基滤层准则不适用于宽级配砂土,建议采用可移动颗粒中的d85s进行滤层准则设计;增加滤层厚度可提高系统的抗渗透破坏能力,但提高滤层厚度对提高整个系统抵抗渗透能力作用不大;水力梯度增加较快不利于系统的稳定。     

鄂尔多斯盆地陕北地区长7砂岩储层成岩相特征研究

在大量样品测试数据与野外地质调查综合分析的基础上, 对长7储层岩石学特征、物性、孔隙结构、成岩作用、成岩阶段和成岩相等进行了研究。结果表明: 研究区长7储层处于中成岩A~B期。压实作用及碳酸盐、粘土(高岭石、伊利石、伊蒙混层)矿物胶结和硅质胶结作用是造成储层原生孔隙丧失的主要原因; 绿泥石胶结抑制孔隙充填, 长石溶蚀作用使孔隙间的连通性得到改善, 储层物性得到提高。根据成岩作用类型、强度及其对储层物性的影响划分出6种成岩相, 其中压实相、碳酸盐胶结相、粘土矿物胶结相、石英加大相、浊沸石充填相不利于储层的发育, 而长石溶蚀相、绿泥石膜胶结相对储层物性改善起了重要作用。     

Spatial and seasonal distributions of soil phosphorus in a typical seasonal flooding wetland of the Yellow River Delta,China

Soil samples from 0 to 100 cm depth were collected in four sampling sites (Sites A, B, C and D) along a 250-m length of sampling zone from the Yellow River channel to a tidal creek in a seasonal flooding wetland of the Yellow River Delta of China in fall of 2007 and spring of 2008 to investigate spatial and seasonal distribution patterns of total phosphorous (TP) and available phosphorus (AP) and their influencing factors. Our results showed that TP contents in spring and AP contents in both seasons in surface soils increased with increasing distances away from the Yellow River channel. TP contents in surface soils (0–10 cm) followed the order Site A (698.6 mg/kg) > Site B (688.0 mg/kg) > Site C (638.8 mg/kg) > Site D (599.2 mg/kg) in fall, while Site C (699.6 mg/kg) > Site D (651.7 mg/kg) > Site B (593.6 mg/kg) > Site A (577.5 mg/kg) in spring. Generally, lower TP content (630.6 mg/kg) and higher AP level (6.2 mg/kg) in surface soils were observed in spring compared to fall (656.2 mg/kg for TP and 5.2 mg/kg for AP). Both TP and AP exhibited similar profile distribution patterns and decreased with depth along soil profiles with one or two accumulation peaks at the depth of 40–80 cm. Although the mean TP content in soil profiles was slightly higher in spring (635.7 mg/kg) than that in fall (628.0 mg/kg), the mean TP stock was obviously lower in spring (959.9 g/m²) with an obvious accumulation at the 60–80 cm soil depth compared to fall (1124.6 g/m²). Topsoil concentration factors also indicated that TP and AP had shallower distribution in soil profiles. Correlation analysis showed that AP had significant and positive correlation with these soil properties such as soil organic matter, salinity, total nitrogen and Al (p < 0.01), but TP was just significantly correlated with TN and Al (p < 0.05).     

长江三峡库区全新世环境考古研究进展

充分利用长江三峡工程文物抢救性发掘的宝贵机会,通过对重庆市忠县中坝遗址、丰都县玉溪遗址等典型遗址和神农架大九湖泥炭地层环境考古研究,摸索出了一套利用年代学、沉积学、重矿物组分鉴定、锆石形态统计、地球化学和环境磁学方法辨别考古遗址地层中古洪水沉积的方法;建立了该区地表孢粉-气候的转换函数,并将其用于对神农架大九湖泥炭地层的研究,弄清了该区全新世以来环境演变的背景,并将自然沉积地层环境演变记录与典型考古遗址地层古洪水事件作了对比分析。遗址时空分布研究表明:长江三峡库区旧石器时代至宋代677处遗址时空分布总趋势是从西往东、从高往低逐渐增加的,遗址多沿江河分布,且在河流交汇处呈聚集状态,这与人类多选择河流1～2级阶地为生、河流交汇处鱼类资源丰富有关。研究表明:中坝遗址能延续5000a的原因一方面与其盐业遗址的属性有关,另一方面与其长期具有良好生态环境有关。从该遗址T0202探方出土近20万件动物骨骼的分类统计证明了这一点。7.6kaBP以来,水位在吴淞高程147.024m以上的古洪水至少在玉溪遗址T0403探方中留下了16次沉积记录。神农架大九湖297cm厚的泥炭及其148个孢粉样品和10个AMS14C测年数据表明,该泥炭地层为本项目提供了理想的全新世自然环境演变背景,尤其8.2kaBP前后的降温事件很明显,6.7～4.2kaBP为中全新世最适宜期,4.2kaBP前后由暖湿转为凉干,3.5～0.9kaBP季风降水整体较弱,0.9kaBP前后转为较凉湿。根据对中坝和玉溪两处遗址地层的研究,在8.2～6.7kaBP期间出现有10个古洪水层;在6.7～4.2kaBP全新世最适宜期遗址地层中出现有8个古洪水层;在3.5～0.9kaBP降水减少的时期,中坝遗址中仅出现2个洪水层(即西周时期的37-1和战国早期的第21层);在0.9kaBP以来降水较多的时期,中坝遗址中存在3个洪水层(即宋代中期的11C-1层、清代的5-1层和1981年的2B-2层)。这表明,8.2～6.7kaBP的洪水在三峡地区次数是最多的,6.7～4.2kaBP的洪水数量次之。长江三峡库区的这一古洪水发生规律或许可以解释长江中游的江汉平原在7.8～5.1kaBP期间遗址数量偏少的原因。     

京津冀区域龙卷风灾害特征分析

基于气象报表、中国气象灾害大典、气象灾情数据库以及档案馆地方志等历史资料,查阅1956—2016年京津冀区域的龙卷风个例,按照"增强藤田级别"龙卷风强度等级分类标准,采用专家评定法对龙卷风个例进行定级,并运用时间序列、趋势分析和空间分析方法,对龙卷风的时空分布、灾害特征进行了统计分析。主要结论如下:①1956—2016年,京津冀区域共确认龙卷风个例188个,空间分布上,龙卷风发生最多的区域有2个,一是张家口坝上4县:张北、尚义、沽源、康保,二是京津冀东部地区,特别是沧州、天津、唐山、秦皇岛沿海地区是龙卷风高发区;②时间分布上,1985—1993年龙卷风发生次数最多,90年代以后呈下降趋势;③龙卷风在夏季发生次数占总数的81.9%,龙卷风主要发生时段为11:00—20:00;④对有灾情记录的122个龙卷风个例,经专家评定,EF4和EF3级各1例,EF2级14例,EF1级52例,EF0级54例。